LibertyBell Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The 36° degree difference between the high and low at JFK is the 2nd greatest on record for May. Just goes to show how dry it has been. This is closer to normal for Tucson, Arizona. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 434 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2021 ................................... ...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 94R 148 PM 94 1992 70 24 73 MINIMUM 58 243 AM 43 1990 54 4 52 AVERAGE 76 62 14 63 ...THE TUCSON AZ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 21 2021... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1895 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 89 325 PM 107 2005 94 -5 89 MINIMUM 68 1159 PM 42 1899 63 5 53 AVERAGE 79 78 1 71 at this rate this could be like 1966 and JFK could go above 100 multiple times in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 6 hours ago, Rjay said: Bring on the rain please. Thanks. My garden and lawn need it. yeah I dont need it dry again until July when we'll hopefully be hitting 100+ on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 6 hours ago, Rjay said: Lol Central Park. it's funny LGA only got to 88 too, meanwhile JFK rocked out at 94 lol, I could use this kind of weather all summer. Hopefully JFK will hit 104 in the summer and I can say I got to experience what 40 C feels like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The temperature rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region today. 90° or above temperatures were reported at: Atlantic City: 94° (old record: 91°, 1992) Baltimore: 93° Georgetown, DE: 93° (old record: 92°, 1996) Hartford: 90° Islip: 90° New York City-JFK: 94° (tied record set in 1992) Newark: 96° Philadelphia: 92° Washington, DC: 91° Wilmington, DE: 92° The high temperature at Central Park was 89°. Today was the first day on record in May where Central Park had a temperature below 90° while Islip had a high temperature of 90° or above. It was also the first day on record where Central Park had a high temperature below 90° and both Islip and JFK Airport saw 90° or above high temperatures. Prior to today, there were two cases in May where JFK Airport had a high temperature of 90° or above while Central Park did not reach 90°: May 13, 1956: JFK: 90°; NYC: 89° May 21, 1962: JFK: 90°; NYC: 87° Bridgeport reached 87°. That broke the daily record of 85°, which was set in 1991 and tied in 1992. Tomorrow will feature more unseasonable warmth. Temperatures will generally reach the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region. Exceptions would be coastal areas prone to sea breezes. The dominant weather story into the closing week of May will be the synoptic impact of a strongly to occasionally severely negative PNA. That development will lead to a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of May. There will likely be additional days on which the temperature will make a run at 90° in parts of the region. Today, the preliminary value of the PNA was -1.519. The PNA is forecast to remain at or below -1.000 until around May 24. During the May 16-31, 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia. During the 1991-2020 period, 30% of days in New York City and 41% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. During the 1991-2020 period, 15% of days in New York City and 23% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 41% of days in New York City and 50% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 24% of days in New York City and 35% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in combination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The first 7-10 days of June could also start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +1.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.092 today. On May 20 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.863 (RMM). The May 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.915 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.6° (1.4° above normal). Don do you have a list of occurrences where JFK has hit 100 and NYC hasnt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 23, 2021 Author Share Posted May 23, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: at this rate this could be like 1966 and JFK could go above 100 multiple times in the summer This weekend actually looks like our last dry heat for a while. The next warm up on Wednesday is forecast to be more humid. So we may get back to the familiar 70° dewpoints. It would fit with the guidance showing better rain chances coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(58/78), or +3.0. Month to date is 62.6[+0.6]. Should be 64.3[+1.2] by the 31st. May 26 still showing in the 90's. Holiday period seems BN/Nor. and wet. 67 to 75 for highs, 1" rain. Reached 88* by me yesterday. JFK (93*) Thermometer must be too near the tarmac. lol. I usually track better with JFK. 72*(70%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast. 75* by 9am, m. clear now. 82* by Noon, cumulus clouds. Made it to 90* at 4:30pm. 82* at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: This weekend actually looks like our last dry heat for a while. The next warm up on Wednesday is forecast to be more humid. So we may get back to the familiar 70° dewpoints. It would fit with the guidance showing better rain chances coming up. Memorial Day weekend is looking a cooler and wet. We could see rain/storms Friday, Saturday, Sunday and maybe Memorial Day itself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 75/61 now much more sun today should push the temps to 90 in most locations that haven't reached it already. Warmer spots look locked in for mid 90s. Brief but much cooler / cloudy on Monday in the 60s. Tue - Thu next heat spike with Wed peaking with 850 temps >16c. From drought to deluge ? Pending on flow, Upper level low may cut off around the east coast between May 28 - Ju 1. Where and how that tracks will determine how much rain but looking unsettled for a period which matches well with recent transitions from dry to wet. Beyond there looking warm overall and heights higher on the east coast 6/3 0 on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and hot. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in most of the region. A few areas could experience an afternoon or evening thundershower. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 91° Newark: 95° Philadelphia: 93° Tomorrow will be noticeably cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don do you have a list of occurrences where JFK has hit 100 and NYC hasnt? These are the occurrences: July 1, 1963: JFK: 102; NYC: 98 July 4, 1966: JFK: 101; NYC: 98 July 23, 1972: JFK: 100; NYC: 94 July 16, 1983: JFK: 100; NYC: 96 August 20, 1983: JFK: 100; NYC: 96 July 4, 2010: JFK: 101; NYC: 96 July 18, 2013: JFK: 100; NYC: 98 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 23, 2021 Author Share Posted May 23, 2021 13 hours ago, rclab said: Good evening, Don/bluewave. Are there any efforts, ongoing, to address CPK readings. As always.... The overgrowth of vegetation blocking the sensors has been well known for a while now. They would need to move the ASOS to a clearing away from any trees. The video below shows the correct sitting of weather sensors in parks or more rural settings. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00094728/detail Obstruction Descriptions OBSTRUCTIONS BEGIN DATE¹ END DATE¹ TREES 2021-04-06 Present TREES 2017-08-01 2021-04-06 TREE 020-340 deg 25-25 ft 20-54 deg 2016-06-15 2017-08-01 HYGR 090/4 TREES ENCIRLCE/25/20-54 IN FENCED ENCOLSURE 50 FT X 25 TH 1995-06-27 2016-06-15 UNIV 050/4 CRS 180/9 H083 SENSOR 200/8 TB 220/20 TREES ENCIRCLE/25/20-54 EQUIPMENT IN FENCED ENCLOSURE 50 FEET X 25 FEET 1992-01-01 1995-06-27 http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV (New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy. Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the equipment buried in Central Park. Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of Central Park. But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is in the shade instead of direct sunlight. Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with false information." The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top. There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way. But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet of the station. Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with visibility sensors." [NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence in the park. He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park than at the airports. Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of the vegetation." Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says its a city that deserves better. Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they deserve the best weather station money can buy." Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 Currently 76 here, RH@ 65%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 Mostly cloudy so far here, 72/63. Severe threat is marginal but worth watching the skies today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 Current temp 80/DP 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 81/65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The overgrowth of vegetation blocking the sensors has been well known for a while now. They would need to move the ASOS to a clearing away from any trees. The video below shows the correct sitting of weather sensors in parks or more rural settings. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00094728/detail Obstruction Descriptions OBSTRUCTIONS BEGIN DATE¹ END DATE¹ TREES 2021-04-06 Present TREES 2017-08-01 2021-04-06 TREE 020-340 deg 25-25 ft 20-54 deg 2016-06-15 2017-08-01 HYGR 090/4 TREES ENCIRLCE/25/20-54 IN FENCED ENCOLSURE 50 FT X 25 TH 1995-06-27 2016-06-15 UNIV 050/4 CRS 180/9 H083 SENSOR 200/8 TB 220/20 TREES ENCIRCLE/25/20-54 EQUIPMENT IN FENCED ENCLOSURE 50 FEET X 25 FEET 1992-01-01 1995-06-27 http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV (New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy. Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the equipment buried in Central Park. Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of Central Park. But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is in the shade instead of direct sunlight. Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with false information." The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top. There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way. But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet of the station. Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with visibility sensors." [NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence in the park. He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park than at the airports. Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of the vegetation." Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says its a city that deserves better. Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they deserve the best weather station money can buy." Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc. Thank you so very much for the detailed and even explanation/discussion. You’ve made me nostalgic for the way information/news was formally reported, with content/facts being more important than opinion/bias. I’ve sent the video to my grandson who is already showing an interest in atmospheric science. As always ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 23, 2021 Author Share Posted May 23, 2021 28 minutes ago, rclab said: Thank you so very much for the detailed and even explanation/discussion. You’ve made me nostalgic for the way information/news was formally reported, with content/facts being more important than opinion/bias. I’ve sent the video to my grandson who is already showing an interest in atmospheric science. As always ... No problem. The Central Park sensors used to be located in direct sunlight before the trees created deep shade. My rough calculation is that this has created an artificial 2° to 3° average maximum temperature summer JJA cooling since 1971. Notice how the mean summer high temperature increase at the other local stations since 1971 has been +2.7°.The high temperature staying steady at NYC instead of increasing was a function of trees blocking the sun. 1971 to 2020 summer JJA high temperature increase NYC….82.9….82.9…..0.0 LGA…..81.0….84.9….+3.9 EWR….83.4….85.4….+2.0 JFK…..80.1…..82.3..+2.2 ISP…….78.5…..81.6..+3.1 HPN….79.0….81.6…+2.6 BDR….79.1…..81.4…+2.3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 11 hours ago, forkyfork said: forecast 850s are higher tomorrow and the nw downslope flow is stronger. i think ewr hits 98 and possibly ties the may record of 99 so far the dewpoints aren't mixing out despite the stronger nw flow. oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: so far the dewpoints aren't mixing out despite the stronger nw flow. oh well felt more humid yesterday then today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: No problem. The Central Park sensors used to be located in direct sunlight before the trees created deep shade. My rough calculation is that this has created an artificial 2° to 3° average maximum temperature summer JJA cooling since 1971. Notice how the mean summer high temperature increase at the other local stations since 1971 has been +2.7°.The high temperature staying steady at NYC instead of increasing was a function of trees blocking the sun. 1971 to 2020 summer JJA high temperature increase NYC….82.9….82.9…..0.0 LGA…..81.0….84.9….+3.9 EWR….83.4….85.4….+2.0 JFK…..80.1…..82.3..+2.2 ISP…….78.5…..81.6..+3.1 HPN….79.0….81.6…+2.6 BDR….79.1…..81.4…+2.3 put the censors right outside the park so that you can claim their central park temps but the temps will be more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 is the foliage around the parks prob effecting nightime lows also?...high or low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 We have some clouds to get through. Could be a break soon, then another area of cloudiness may pass by from nw to se. Day should end clear. I have 82*(52%RH) at Noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 Clouds keeping temp to 84, off a high of 85. Not sure we see 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 51 minutes ago, nycwinter said: felt more humid yesterday then today.. But it wasn't. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 Changes in Summer (June-August) Average High Temperatures (1971-00 vs. 1991-20 Means): Bridgeport: +0.9° Islip: +1.3° New Brunswick: +1.4° New York City-JFK: +1.0° New York City-LGA: +1.6° Newark: +0.8° Poughkeepsie: +1.1° White Plains: +1.0° Average: +1.1° Median: +1.1° Standard Deviation: +0.3° Trimmed Mean (excluding the highest and lowest changes): +1.1° Second Trimmed Mean (excluding the two highest and lowest changes): +1.1° New York City-Central Park: -0.1° (more than 3 sigma below the regional change excluding Central Park) Note: The tree obstructions at Central Park were noted beginning in 1992 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 1PM Round up: ACY: 90 EWR: 90 JFK: 89 New Brnswck: 89 PHL: 89 BLM: 88 TTN: 87 ISP: 84 NYC: 84 TEB: 84 LGA: 83 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: These are the occurrences: July 1, 1963: JFK: 102; NYC: 98 July 4, 1966: JFK: 101; NYC: 98 July 23, 1972: JFK: 100; NYC: 94 July 16, 1983: JFK: 100; NYC: 96 August 20, 1983: JFK: 100; NYC: 96 July 4, 2010: JFK: 101; NYC: 96 July 18, 2013: JFK: 100; NYC: 98 I know a few of these well! I didn't realize it happened twice in 1983 though lol. July 4th 2010 was one of my favorite July 4 ever, it was such a dry heat that it didn't even feel like 90 let alone 100. I wish every summer was like that! I remember the one in 2013 also and I think it was 2017 or 2018 JFK had back to back 99 and barely missed reaching 100 when NYC was stuck at 95 or 96.Had a heat index near 120 both days too, which was the highest on record for JFK. 1966 and 2010 were very similar, peak dry heat and downslope wind enabled JFK to top NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 29 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1PM Round up: ACY: 90 EWR: 90 JFK: 89 New Brnswck: 89 PHL: 89 BLM: 88 TTN: 87 ISP: 84 NYC: 84 TEB: 84 LGA: 83 blah we can already tell today wont be anywhere near as hot as yesterday was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Changes in Summer (June-August) Average High Temperatures (1971-00 vs. 1991-20 Means): Bridgeport: +0.9° Islip: +1.3° New Brunswick: +1.4° New York City-JFK: +1.0° New York City-LGA: +1.6° Newark: +0.8° Poughkeepsie: +1.1° White Plains: +1.0° Average: +1.1° Median: +1.1° Standard Deviation: +0.3° Trimmed Mean (excluding the highest and lowest changes): +1.1° Second Trimmed Mean (excluding the two highest and lowest changes): +1.1° New York City-Central Park: -0.1° (more than 3 sigma below the regional change excluding Central Park) Note: The tree obstructions at Central Park were noted beginning in 1992 But NYC still did well in the amazing summer of 1993, so it had to be after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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