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34 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Too hot for you today?       T's crater for the whole Holiday Weekend maybe, along with our first real rain event (more than 1.5")in a while(May 9th.):

1621684800-T7KuBPoOcac.png

Meanwhile we have reality:

1621713600-jTeW3KAXKdI.png

it won't be nowhere close to 78 on monday...

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Too hot for you today?       T's crater for the whole Holiday Weekend maybe, along with our first real rain event (more than 1.5")in a while(May 9th.):

1621684800-T7KuBPoOcac.png

Meanwhile we have reality:

1621713600-jTeW3KAXKdI.png

The heat without humidity is better, but a break would be nice. I am just not ready for constant summer.

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The temperature rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region today. 90° or above temperatures were reported at:

Atlantic City: 94° (old record: 91°, 1992)
Baltimore: 93°
Georgetown, DE: 93° (old record: 92°, 1996)
Hartford: 90°
Islip: 90°
New York City-JFK: 94° (tied record set in 1992)
Newark: 96°
Philadelphia: 92°
Washington, DC: 91°
Wilmington, DE: 92°

The high temperature at Central Park was 89°. Today was the first day on record in May where Central Park had a temperature below 90° while Islip had a high temperature of 90° or above. It was also the first day on record where Central Park had a high temperature below 90° and both Islip and JFK Airport saw 90° or above high temperatures. Prior to today, there were two cases in May where JFK Airport had a high temperature of 90° or above while Central Park did not reach 90°:

May 13, 1956: JFK: 90°; NYC: 89°
May 21, 1962: JFK: 90°; NYC: 87°

Bridgeport reached 87°. That broke the daily record of 85°, which was set in 1991 and tied in 1992.

Tomorrow will feature more unseasonable warmth. Temperatures will generally reach the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region. Exceptions would be coastal areas prone to sea breezes.

The dominant weather story into the closing week of May will be the synoptic impact of a strongly to occasionally severely negative PNA. That development will lead to a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of May. There will likely be additional days on which the temperature will make a run at 90° in parts of the region.

Today, the preliminary value of the PNA was -1.519. The PNA is forecast to remain at or below -1.000 until around May 24. During the May 16-31, 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia.

During the 1991-2020 period, 30% of days in New York City and 41% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. During the 1991-2020 period, 15% of days in New York City and 23% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 41% of days in New York City and 50% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 24% of days in New York City and 35% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in combination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The first 7-10 days of June could also start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +1.63 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.092 today.

On May 20 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.863 (RMM). The May 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.915 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.6° (1.4° above normal).

 

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The 36° degree difference between the high and low at JFK is the 2nd greatest on record for May. Just goes to show how dry it has been. This is closer to normal for Tucson, Arizona.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
434 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2021

...................................

...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         94R   148 PM  94    1992  70     24       73       
  MINIMUM         58    243 AM  43    1990  54      4       52       
  AVERAGE         76                        62     14       63    


 

...THE TUCSON AZ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 21 2021...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1895 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         89    325 PM 107    2005  94     -5       89       
  MINIMUM         68   1159 PM  42    1899  63      5       53       
  AVERAGE         79                        78      1       71     
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48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region today. 90° or above temperatures were reported at:

Atlantic City: 94° (old record: 91°, 1992)
Baltimore: 93°
Georgetown, DE: 93° (old record: 92°, 1996)
Hartford: 90°
Islip: 90°
New York City-JFK: 94° (tied record set in 1992)
Newark: 96°
Philadelphia: 92°
Washington, DC: 91°
Wilmington, DE: 92°

The high temperature at Central Park was 89°. Today was the first day on record in May where Central Park had a temperature below 90° while Islip had a high temperature of 90° or above. It was also the first day on record where Central Park had a high temperature below 90° and both Islip and JFK Airport saw 90° or above high temperatures. Prior to today, there were two cases in May where JFK Airport had a high temperature of 90° or above while Central Park did not reach 90°:

May 13, 1956: JFK: 90°; NYC: 89°
May 21, 1962: JFK: 90°; NYC: 87°

Bridgeport reached 87°. That broke the daily record of 85°, which was set in 1991 and tied in 1992.

Tomorrow will feature more unseasonable warmth. Temperatures will generally reach the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region. Exceptions would be coastal areas prone to sea breezes.

The dominant weather story into the closing week of May will be the synoptic impact of a strongly to occasionally severely negative PNA. That development will lead to a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of May. There will likely be additional days on which the temperature will make a run at 90° in parts of the region.

Today, the preliminary value of the PNA was -1.519. The PNA is forecast to remain at or below -1.000 until around May 24. During the May 16-31, 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia.

During the 1991-2020 period, 30% of days in New York City and 41% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. During the 1991-2020 period, 15% of days in New York City and 23% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 41% of days in New York City and 50% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 24% of days in New York City and 35% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in combination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The first 7-10 days of June could also start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +1.63 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.092 today.

On May 20 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.863 (RMM). The May 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.915 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.6° (1.4° above normal).

 

Good evening, Don/bluewave. Are there any efforts, ongoing, to address CPK readings. As always....

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it was 88 in NYC at 1:51pm...but the 2:51 reading was 86...it says clear but there was a wind shift from the west with some gusts...

11:51 AM N 3 10 CLR   85 60 85     43% 30.21 1021.9 0    
12:51 PM WNW 5 10 CLR   86 54 84     33% 30.19 1021.2 0    
1:51 PM VRB 3 10 CLR   88 52 86 88 72 29% 30.16 1020.3 0    
2:51 PM W 13G 20 10 CLR   86 55 84     35% 30.14 1019.5 0    
3:51 PM VRB 5 10 CLR   86 56 85     36% 30.11 1018.6 0    
4:51 PM VRB 6 10 FEW110   85 56 84     37% 30.09 1017.9 0    
5:51 PM W 7 10 OVC100   85 54 83     35% 30.08 1017.5 0    
6:51 PM WNW 6 10 FEW110   85 55 84     36% 30.07 1017.3 0    
7:51 PM W 6 10 CLR   83 56 82 89 83 40% 30.07 1017.1 0
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23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

forecast 850s are higher tomorrow and the nw downslope flow is stronger. i think ewr hits 98 and possibly ties the may record of 99

JFK can get near 100 dont sleep on how well they do on a northwest wind, it was 95 today on the southshore without any sunshine

and why dont the NWS mets here go on strike until there's an instrument relocation for NYC?  It needs to happen

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