tek1972 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 12Z GFS just tosses the Lithium away and goes manic: Shouldn't the denizens of Texas be seeing something like this?A high of 54 Saturday? Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 The GFS has no Quality Control or Self Respect. The first 10 days of June work out to: 70/88 or 79avg. +9.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 20 minutes ago, tek1972 said: A high of 54 Saturday? Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk cloudiness and showers around after the slug of rain Friday afternoon/evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: No matter how many times the GFS gets upgraded, it still remains in last place. Your tax dollars at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2021 Author Share Posted May 25, 2021 12 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: cloudiness and showers around after the slug of rain Friday afternoon/evening? The Euro and CMC have the bulk of the rain Friday into Friday night. Maybe a few lingering showers into Saturday. But a cool NE flow looks likely into the afternoon. So Saturday may feature highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s around NYC depending on cloud cover. This would put it near the coolest maxes that we have seen this late in the season since 2015. It could be in excess of 30° colder than the mid 90s last Saturday. Newark low maxes recent years bolded 5/29 60 in 1950 60 in 1940 61 in 2017+ 5/30 53 in 1953 59 in 2017 64 in 2000+ 5/31 61 in 1953 63 in 1992 63 in 1984 6/1 58 in 1945 61 in 2015 63 in 1964 6/2 54 in 1946 57 in 2015 60 in 1945+ 6/3 53 in 1945 62 in 1996 63 in 1997 6/4 53 in 1945 58 in 2003 60 in 1941 6/5 58 in 1945 60 in 1941 61 in 2009 6/6 60 in 2017 61 in 2004 61 in 2000+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Another big push of warm air is likely tomorrow into Thursday. Many parts of the region will likely approach or reach 90° tomorrow. The remainder of the month will likely see cooler to occasionally much cooler than normal conditions. The Memorial Day weekend will likely be unsettled and cooler. Periods of rain are possible, though there is large uncertainty about the amount of precipitation. A light to perhaps moderate rainfall appears more likely than a heavy rainfall based on the ensembles. The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -12.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.151 today. On May 23 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.643 (RMM). The May 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.763 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.0° (0.8° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 It looks like we could pick up 1.0-1.5" of rain Friday into Saturday morning with locally higher amounts possible. It should be a good drink for the area. Sunday also trending wetter as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 26 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: It looks like we could pick up 1.0-1.5" of rain Friday into Saturday morning with locally higher amounts possible. It should be a good drink for the area. Sunday also trending wetter as well. Hopefully Sunday falls apart. I would take a good Friday into Saturday rainfall as long as we couldn’t salvage the rest of the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 26, 2021 Author Share Posted May 26, 2021 40 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: It looks like we could pick up 1.0-1.5" of rain Friday into Saturday morning with locally higher amounts possible. It should be a good drink for the area. Sunday also trending wetter as well. Yeah, it looks like our best rainfall potential in a while. Models now have high temperatures struggling to get much above 60°on Saturday with a chilly NE flow. Very unusual for highs in the mid or upper 90s around May 20th to fall to near 60 at the end of May. It only has happened in 2017 and 1996 at Newark. 2017-05-17 92 59 2017-05-18 94 74 2017-05-19 93 66 2017-05-20 66 53 2017-05-21 66 51 2017-05-22 60 55 2017-05-23 70 56 2017-05-24 70 57 2017-05-25 59 56 2017-05-26 76 55 2017-05-27 74 58 2017-05-28 71 58 2017-05-29 61 57 2017-05-30 59 55 2017-05-31 80 58 1996-05-19 93 54 1996-05-20 99 72 1996-05-21 96 70 1996-05-22 82 63 1996-05-23 84 57 1996-05-24 80 59 1996-05-25 76 53 1996-05-26 66 56 1996-05-27 64 52 1996-05-28 61 55 1996-05-29 64 55 1996-05-30 70 50 1996-05-31 80 49 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 The last 6 days of May are averaging 64degs.(55/72), or -3degs. Month to date is 63.4[+1.0]. May should end at 63.5[+0.3]. Today should be 86 to 92 according to the three major models. The EURO ruins more of the Holiday than the others, with rain. The LAMP has just 82 for today with sun from say 11am---2pm. For JFK just 76, which probably means me too. 62*(93%RH) here at 6am, overcast. Fog and mucky look at 8am, 64*. 66* at 9am, some brightening. Reached 70* at 11:15am, hazy blue. Reached 72* at Noon but has fallen back to 69* at 1pm. Thermometer played with 70-72 all PM. 71* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Today does seem like the first real severe threat we’ll see for the summer; not everyone will see storms but I imagine areas that do could generate some reports. Meanwhile, the Midwestern states have a good chance to begin derecho season over the next two days. Very strong instability will be present both days coupled with other factors = likely evolutions both days into intense MCSs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and very warm. A shower or thundershower is possible. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 88° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 92° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 26, 2021 Author Share Posted May 26, 2021 This May ranks up there for extreme temperature volatility. Cool start to the month followed by record warmth last weekend. More 90s away from the ocean today followed by an unusually cool Memorial Day weekend. So a continuation of the extreme wavelength swings following the record AO reversal back in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 64/62 @ 8:23 AM. Gonna feel awful today, hope for a storm to cool things off. Window for storms here will be around 2-3 hours earlier than points SE of here, between 4-6 this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Low level clouds will likely burn off mid morning and give way to a scorcher. DT in the low to mid 60s. Warmer spots and perhaps even LGA/NYC could touch 90 today with enough sunshine and if storms arrive later . Tomorrow dry and warm and outside chance the warmer spots get to 90 otherwise mid/upper 80s. Friday - Sunday unsettled, cloudy and onshore flow with rain >1.00" and i the extreme 2.00". Looks to dry our on Memorial Day and warm up as we start June. Next heat spike being hinted on guidance on/around Jun 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Clouds burning off quicky now and should see some breaks of sun in the next hour. 71 / 63 mostly cloudy here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 26, 2021 Author Share Posted May 26, 2021 Clearing out at Newark now. Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 77 65 66 SW12 30.05F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 rapidly becoming muggy. 78/66 for a rise of about 14 degrees in two hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 76/69/CLR wind is light and pleasant. No clouds in sight now so the temp ought to warm up pretty quickly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 26, 2021 Author Share Posted May 26, 2021 The NAM didn’t get the memo that this is supposed to be the Memorial Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: The NAM didn’t get the memo that this is supposed to be the Memorial Day weekend. hoping for dry Sat-Mon for outdoor activities-even if we need sweatshirts and pants! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: The NAM didn’t get the memo that this is supposed to be the Memorial Day weekend. hopefully those rain amounts come with the cool temps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 some elevated cape friday night which explains the higher amounts on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 RGEM further south and lighter amts but still a good drink-some differences in timing-NAM/EURO have rain later Friday vs the GFS/RGEM which are about 6 hrs earlier. - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 26, 2021 Author Share Posted May 26, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: hopefully those rain amounts come with the cool temps I wonder if Newark ever had a Memorial Day weekend when one of the daily high temperatures was colder than Christmas? Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1964-12-25 69 44 0.01 0.0 0 1982-12-25 68 40 0.02 0.0 0 2014-12-25 64 41 0.10 0.0 0 2015-12-25 63 54 0.03 0.0 0 2020-12-25 62 28 0.66 0.0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 First severe watch for the season for me: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0205.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said: First severe watch for the season for me: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0205.html This got expanded east now. as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Current temp 89/DP 71 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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