May 2021

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Detroit was very close to the all-time May 500 mb height record this morning. Had we seen this anomalous a ridge during the summer, it would probably mean temperatures approaching or exceeding 100° In the Northeast. So it will be interesting to see if Newark can sneak in at least 95° max this month.

 

 

We're all going to exceed 100 in July, finally getting a baker of a summer which I haven't seen in years!

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Monday looks more like 60s sandwched between 90s on sunday and 80s by tuesday.

90s Saturday and Sunday and again on Wednesday?  Maybe even 95 on one or more of those days?

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Too much rain - global warming.  Too little rain - global warming...

I like the too little rain, 70% of the world is covered in water, use it....

 

[doncat]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

ugh is that wind why my allergies are acting up for the first time all year?

 

I believe a wind off the ocean would help the air quality...I'm usually fine when it comes to allergies but my wife is bothered quite a bit.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

If the long range guidance is correct, then the humidity will probably increase as we head into June. So this is when we could start to see better chances for rain again. The record breaking ridge just to our west is acting as a block. EPS lifts the ridge axis north to near the Canadian Maritimes to start June. This is where the ridge axis was for the last 3 summers with the warm and moist onshore flow. So it will be interesting to see if we can make it 4 in a row.

EPS May 31- June 7 forecast 

 

No that is exactly what we DONT want.  What will it take to get a nice ridge set up like July 1993 and July 2010?  I want pure heat not taint with humidity.  I dont care about June since we dont see 100 in June, but July needs to be like it is right now.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, doncat said:

I believe a wind off the ocean would help the air quality...I'm usually fine when it comes to allergies but my wife is bothered quite a bit.

For some reason I have no allergies on a west or northwest wind, it's when the humidity goes up that I have problems with them.

 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No that is exactly what we DONT want.  What will it take to get a nice ridge set up like July 1993 and July 2010?  I want pure heat not taint with humidity.  I dont care about June since we dont see 100 in June, but July needs to be like it is right now.

 

 

It’s been tough to bet against the greatest 500mb height anomalies setting up over New England since 2018. The stronger ridging to our NE has allowed for higher dewpoints and  more onshore flow. If you want more westerly flow dry heat events like 2010 to 2013, then the best 500 mb anomalies need to be over the Great Lakes. 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas rose into the 70s and 80s today. Some 90° temperatures were reported. Burlington reached 90° for the second consecutive day and second time this month. Only 10 years saw May record 2 or more 90° temperatures and 9 years saw 2 or more consecutive such temperatures in May. The last time there were 2 or more 90° readings in May and 2 or more consecutive such temperatures was 2020. Syracuse reached 93°.

90° Days for Select Cities (through May 21):

Albany: 0 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 0 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 0 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 0 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 0 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 2 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 0 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 0 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 0 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 0 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 0 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 0 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 1 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 0 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 1 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 1 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 0 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 0 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)
 
In Quebec, daily record high temperatures were set in Montreal: 89° (old record: 87°, 1977) and Trois-Rivières: 84° (old record: 79°, 2012)

Much warmer weather is likely for the weekend. Temperatures will generally reach the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region. Exceptions would be coastal areas prone to sea breezes.

The dominant weather story into at least the closing week of May will be the synoptic impact of a strongly to occasionally severely negative PNA. That development will lead to a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of May. There will likely be additional days on which the temperature will make a run at 90° in parts of the region.

Today, the preliminary value of the PNA was -1.457. The PNA is forecast to remain at or below -1.000 until around May 24. During the May 16-31, 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia.

During the 1991-2020 period, 30% of days in New York City and 41% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. During the 1991-2020 period, 15% of days in New York City and 23% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 41% of days in New York City and 50% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 24% of days in New York City and 35% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in combination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The first 7-10 days of June could also start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +0.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.024 today.

On May 19 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.914 (RMM). The May 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.703 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.7° (1.5° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s been tough to bet against the greatest 500mb height anomalies setting up over New England since 2018. The stronger ridging to our NE has allowed for higher dewpoints and  more onshore flow. If you want more westerly flow dry heat events like 2010 to 2013, then the best 500 mb anomalies need to be over the Great Lakes. 

 

 

I thought with the extended dry period we've had that would make the inland high more likely?  What's been causing the high to set up over new england anyway?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas rose into the 70s and 80s today. Some 90° temperatures were reported. Burlington reached 90° for the second consecutive day and second time this month. Only 10 years saw May record 2 or more 90° temperatures and 9 years saw 2 or more consecutive such temperatures in May. The last time there were 2 or more 90° readings in May and 2 or more consecutive such temperatures was 2020. Syracuse reached 93°.

90° Days for Select Cities (through May 21):

Albany: 0 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 0 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 0 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 0 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 0 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 2 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 0 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 0 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 0 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 0 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 0 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 0 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 1 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 0 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 1 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 1 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 0 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 0 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)
 
In Quebec, daily record high temperatures were set in Montreal: 89° (old record: 87°, 1977) and Trois-Rivières: 84° (old record: 79°, 2012)

Much warmer weather is likely for the weekend. Temperatures will generally reach the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region. Exceptions would be coastal areas prone to sea breezes.

The dominant weather story into at least the closing week of May will be the synoptic impact of a strongly to occasionally severely negative PNA. That development will lead to a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of May. There will likely be additional days on which the temperature will make a run at 90° in parts of the region.

Today, the preliminary value of the PNA was -1.457. The PNA is forecast to remain at or below -1.000 until around May 24. During the May 16-31, 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia.

During the 1991-2020 period, 30% of days in New York City and 41% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. During the 1991-2020 period, 15% of days in New York City and 23% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 41% of days in New York City and 50% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 24% of days in New York City and 35% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in combination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The first 7-10 days of June could also start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +0.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.024 today.

On May 19 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.914 (RMM). The May 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.703 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.7° (1.5° above normal).

 

Scranton hit 90 before Philly or Allentown?  Thats amazing- how? lol    I think they touched 90 yesterday?  What about Mt Pocono, Don?

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Scranton hit 90 before Philly or Allentown?  Thats amazing- how? lol    I think they touched 90 yesterday?  What about Mt Pocono, Don?

MPO has not yet hit 90. 

[etudiant]

striking how LGA has so many more 90* days than NYC.  Is that because the NYC temperature is taken in Central Park, where the greenery tempers the heat?

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, etudiant said:

striking how LGA has so many more 90* days than NYC.  Is that because the NYC temperature is taken in Central Park, where the greenery tempers the heat?

It was probably a combination of the increased urbanization around LGA--now New York City's premier heat island--and the more recent increase in vegation in Central Park. As a result, the relationship between the two locations weakened as far as 90° days was concerned.

Annual 90° Days (30-Year Average):
1951-80: LGA: 14.8; NYC: 18.3
1961-90: LGA: 13.7; NYC: 18.3
1971-00: LGA: 15.1; NYC: 18.1
1981-10: LGA: 18.7; NYC: 17.4
1991-20: LGA: 21.8; NYC: 17.4

The 30-year average for annual 90° days at LGA surpassed NYC for the first time during the 1978-2007 period.

Annual 90° Days (1950-2020 broken into two parts):
1950-1984: LGA: 14.7; NYC: 18.0 (coefficient of determination: 0.686)
1985-2020: LGA: 21.0; NYC: 17.5 (coefficient of determination: 0.619)

 

[uncle W]

Central Park is 130ft above sea level...LGA is about 10ft above sea level...Central park usually gets wind thats slightly up slope...LGA is on the down slope if any...a sw wind has to travel over a built up Brooklyn and Queens and has little greenery near the probes and gets some ocasional Jet fumes...a park is going to be cooler in the heat than a street corner in Manhattan or Queens...

[SACRUS]

 

5/21

New Brnswck: 86
EWR: 83
TTN: 83
PHL: 83
TEB: 81
NYC: 79
LGA: 77
BLM: 77
JFK: 75
ACY: 75
ISP: 71

[uncle W]

70 degree minimums in NYC are on the rise...the 1960's averaged 24 such days while the 2010's averaged 47...a wopping 10 more than the second placed 1980's...2020.had 58 making the long term average a little higher...

year total min 70+ consecutive 70+

1930..........26............8

1931..........34............7

1932..........25............6

1933..........33............6

1934..........26............4

1935..........29..........11

1936..........20............4

1937..........28............6

1938..........34..........12

1939..........44..........13.......29.9.........7.7

1940..........24............8

1941..........27............6

1942..........20............4

1943..........30............4

1944..........41..........14

1945..........29............4

1946..........11............3

1947..........30............5

1948..........29............6

1949..........43..........10......32.4........6.4

1950..........13............5

1951..........23............7

1952..........38..........12

1953..........34..........10

1954..........18............5

1955..........45..........13

1956..........20............5

1957..........31............5

1958..........26............4

1959..........46..........10......29.4.......7.3

1960..........20............5

1961..........42............9

1962............8............2

1963..........14............5

1964..........19............4

1965..........17............4

1966..........40..........11

1967..........17............5

1968..........29............6

1969..........33............6......23.9.......5.7

1970..........37..........10

1971..........45............9

1972..........30..........15

1973..........37..........11

1974..........26............3

1975..........23..........12

1976..........24............4

1977..........37............9

1978..........31..........13

1979..........42..........17......33.2......10.3

1980..........52..........22

1981..........39............8

1982..........30..........12

1983..........45..........13

1984..........40..........16

1985..........34............6

1986..........31............4

1987..........32............7

1988..........42..........21

1989..........28............5......37.3.....11.4

1990..........32............8

1991..........31............7

1992..........14............4

1993..........35..........10

1994..........35............9

1995..........39..........18

1996..........22............5

1997..........27............8

1998..........39..........11

1999..........45..........13......31.9.......9.3

2000..........22............4

2001..........30............9

2002..........43............9

2003..........33..........15

2004..........28............6

2005..........60..........14

2006..........41..........15

2007..........35............8

2008..........35............8

2009..........18............5.....34.5.......9.3

2010..........54..........22

2011..........40............9

2012..........47..........10

2013..........51..........19

2014...……33...……..9

2015..........56............9

2016..........51..........16

2017..........44............7.....

2018..........55..........18

2019...…...43...……...7.....47.4.....12.6

2020.........58..........20....

 

1872...…...41...……16

1876..........46..........14

1906..........61..........17

1908..........54..........16

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, etudiant said:

striking how LGA has so many more 90* days than NYC.  Is that because the NYC temperature is taken in Central Park, where the greenery tempers the heat?

they decoupled after the 90s

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

70 degree minimums in NYC are on the rise...the 1960's averaged 24 such days while the 2010's averaged 47...a wopping 10 more than the second placed 1980's...2020.had 58 making the long term average a little higher...

year total min 70+ consecutive 70+

1930..........26............8

1931..........34............7

1932..........25............6

1933..........33............6

1934..........26............4

1935..........29..........11

1936..........20............4

1937..........28............6

1938..........34..........12

1939..........44..........13.......29.9.........7.7

1940..........24............8

1941..........27............6

1942..........20............4

1943..........30............4

1944..........41..........14

1945..........29............4

1946..........11............3

1947..........30............5

1948..........29............6

1949..........43..........10......32.4........6.4

1950..........13............5

1951..........23............7

1952..........38..........12

1953..........34..........10

1954..........18............5

1955..........45..........13

1956..........20............5

1957..........31............5

1958..........26............4

1959..........46..........10......29.4.......7.3

1960..........20............5

1961..........42............9

1962............8............2

1963..........14............5

1964..........19............4

1965..........17............4

1966..........40..........11

1967..........17............5

1968..........29............6

1969..........33............6......23.9.......5.7

1970..........37..........10

1971..........45............9

1972..........30..........15

1973..........37..........11

1974..........26............3

1975..........23..........12

1976..........24............4

1977..........37............9

1978..........31..........13

1979..........42..........17......33.2......10.3

1980..........52..........22

1981..........39............8

1982..........30..........12

1983..........45..........13

1984..........40..........16

1985..........34............6

1986..........31............4

1987..........32............7

1988..........42..........21

1989..........28............5......37.3.....11.4

1990..........32............8

1991..........31............7

1992..........14............4

1993..........35..........10

1994..........35............9

1995..........39..........18

1996..........22............5

1997..........27............8

1998..........39..........11

1999..........45..........13......31.9.......9.3

2000..........22............4

2001..........30............9

2002..........43............9

2003..........33..........15

2004..........28............6

2005..........60..........14

2006..........41..........15

2007..........35............8

2008..........35............8

2009..........18............5.....34.5.......9.3

2010..........54..........22

2011..........40............9

2012..........47..........10

2013..........51..........19

2014...……33...……..9

2015..........56............9

2016..........51..........16

2017..........44............7.....

2018..........55..........18

2019...…...43...……...7.....47.4.....12.6

2020.........58..........20....

 

1872...…...41...……16

1876..........46..........14

1906..........61..........17

1908..........54..........16

Uncle do you have figures for 90 degree days?  I feel like we had the most during the 90s....

[LibertyBell]

wow what the heck was going on in 1906?  well besides the San Francisco earthquake of course...and 1908 was almost as bad!

do you have 90 degree day figures for those years?

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(60/80), or +4.0 

Month to date is  61.9[+0.1].         Should be 64.1[+1.2] by the 29th.

May 26th continues at 90,{another T PopDrop}---, probably  20 straight runs.     No rain for another 5 days, despite TS chances before that.

64*[65%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast.       73* by 9am and more importantly, the RH has hardly moved down(60%RH) now.        77* by 10am.         80*(48%RH) at 11am.        86*(39%RH)  by 1pm.           88*(33%RH) at 3pm----4pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and hot. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in most of the region. A few areas could experience an afternoon or evening thundershower. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 90°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 91°

Tomorrow will be another partly sunny and very warm day.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought with the extended dry period we've had that would make the inland high more likely?  What's been causing the high to set up over new england anyway?

 

Slowing AMOC and rapidly warming Gulf Of Maine have gone together with the anomalous ridging over New England and the Canadian Maritimes. So I guess that it’s no surprise that the seasonal models have a similar pattern this summer. It will be interesting to see if we can make it four summers in a row.

 

 

 

[uncle W]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow what the heck was going on in 1906?  well besides the San Francisco earthquake of course...and 1908 was almost as bad!

do you have 90 degree day figures for those years?

 

I think 1906 and 1908 temps were effected by smoke from burning stuff which was done alot back then...

[SACRUS]

 

Some clouds to deal with otherwise off to the races and some 90s in the warmer spots and perhaps even in to NYC / LGA.  Hotter tomorrow with low to perhaps mid 90s 850 temps >15C and recent dryness could see temps accel past guidance.   The question is how low does Monday go vs prior day (Sunday) high.  Thinking a 92 / 68 split in Newark highs SUn / Mon.

Tuesday inland spots should get back to 80 before the peak of this heat arrives Wed and Thu both days 90s widespread.  The holiday weekend looks warm but showers and clouds could be present Sat and Sun before more warmth on Monday 5/31.  Longer range models rebuild the ridge with heights soaring around Jun 2.  Again this looks more overall warmth to hot broken by transient cool downs / wind shifts.  More humidity in june. 

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I think 1906 and 1908 temps were effected by smoke from burning stuff which was done alot back then...

Higher population in Manhattan during those years than today. 
 

the Manhattan island population in 1900 was even larger (1.85 million persons in 1900) than today 1.54 million in 2000), due to turn-of-century immigration. So to the extent that population is an indicator of UHI strength, the relative 1900 UHI magnitude may be partial- ly understandable.

http://www.theurbanclimatologist.com/uploads/4/4/2/5/44250401/gaffinetal2008nycuhiandtemptrends.pdf

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow what the heck was going on in 1906?  well besides the San Francisco earthquake of course...and 1908 was almost as bad!

do you have 90 degree day figures for those years?

 

1906 9 days

1908 12 days

[Rtd208]

Temp already up to 77 here.

90's seem like a lock for today

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Higher population in Manhattan during those years than today. 
 

the Manhattan island population in 1900 was even larger (1.85 million persons in 1900) than today 1.54 million in 2000), due to turn-of-century immigration. So to the extent that population is an indicator of UHI strength, the relative 1900 UHI magnitude may be partial- ly understandable.

http://www.theurbanclimatologist.com/uploads/4/4/2/5/44250401/gaffinetal2008nycuhiandtemptrends.pdf

I read something that said squatters were living in Central Park in shacks and they burned most of their garbage...must have been a lovely place back then...

[uncle W]

back in 1906 and 1908 NYC had many summer days with a temperature range less than 10 degrees without any rain...7/23/06 had a max of 87 and a min of 80...8/6/08 had the same max/min 87/80...it must have been very smoky and it blocked the sun enough to keep max temps down and min temps up...

[Rjay]

78 in Merrick

75 in Holbrook