bluewave Posted May 17, 2021 Author Share Posted May 17, 2021 8 hours ago, forkyfork said: hopefully the front nearby can give us convection The ridge should be really impressive before the front arrives later in the week. 500mb heights will be close to record levels in areas just to our west. Rainfall will be much needed as the Euro has a lower dewpoint warm up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(61/79), or +5.0. Month to date is 59.4[-1.8]. Should be 62.6[+0.5] by the 25th. 59*(61%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 65* by Noon, but variable through morning. Still bouncing near 65* by 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Looks like our wells are going to get an early season workout for the next few weeks. After a fairly dry period since last June this year could get "interesting" for some of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 78° Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 65 now off a low of 43. On the way to 80 in CNJ today with mostly sunny skies. Tremendous stretch of weather arriving that may linger into early June for summer enthusiasts. Guidance has 850 temps >15C by Wed and Thu (unless clouds interrupt) 90s are likely for the warmer spots , recent dryness should push temps to accelerate ahead of guidance. Pending on the onshore flow penetration and subsequent clouds and showers on Fri/Sat some inland spots should still reach 80s. It should warm back up by Sunday with another push of heat is possible Tue (5/25)- wed (5/26) as guidance pushes 850 temps >18c then. Beyond there still looking warm to end the month with long range hinting at a more traditional summery holiday weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Current temp up to 69 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Current temp is 79 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 barely any precip during the whole euro run. ugh 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 If this dryness extends into summer we could be seeing 100s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Spent the weekend hiking in the Catskills. The wild flowers are incredible right now. Got to see this painted trillium near Windham High Peak. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: barely any precip during the whole euro run. ugh 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Under bright sunshine, thermometers rose into the upper 70s and even lower 80s in a few places. Even warmer days lie ahead over the next week or two. At the height of the warmth, the 90° isotherm could reach parts of the Middle Atlantic region. The dominant weather story into at least the closing week of May will be the synoptic impact of a strongly to occasionally severely negative PNA. That development will lead to a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of May. Today, the preliminary value of the PNA was -1.291. That was lowest figure since April 1 when the PNA was -1.380. The PNA is forecast to fall further and then remain at or below -1.000 until at least May 24. During the May 16-31, 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia. During the 1991-2020 period, 30% of days in New York City and 41% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. During the 1991-2020 period, 15% of days in New York City and 23% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 41% of days in New York City and 50% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 24% of days in New York City and 35% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in combination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +9.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.266 today. On May 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.212 (RMM). The May 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.924 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.3° (1.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: If this dryness extends into summer we could be seeing 100s this is exactly the kind of summer I have been waiting for YEARS! Need Chris to confirm this, this is exactly the kind of SE ridge we need right? It needs to move inland into the SE to block precip and establish a ring of fire to our north and west. I want this to go full on 1993! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 10 hours ago, forkyfork said: barely any precip during the whole euro run. ugh 1993 here we come.....get that ring of fire established and let's have that SE ridge move inland into the SE and stay there for the entire summer. Why ugh, I thought you love hot and dry summers too? The only way to fix that NYC foliage problem is to KILL it and no rain will do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 I hope it stays dry (as in low dewpoints i dont mind rain), I got a job stocking the garden section in a home depot and if we have high dews like last summer I'll probably die in July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2021 Author Share Posted May 18, 2021 Models have been really struggling with the timing of the backdoor cold front later this week. Looks like Wednesday could be the warmest day of the week now. We’ll have to wait for later runs to refine the timing. In general, it seems like guidance has been jumping around quite a bit beyond 3-5 days recently. The very amplified pattern has been a challenge to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 68degs.(62/75), or about +4.0. After peaking a few days ago----this 8 day avg. has been lowering. Rain is now highest(not high really) on the GFS which ruins this Fri. to Mon. period. Models unreliable post 5/26. Month to date is 59.9[-1.5]. Should be 62.5[+0.3] by the 26th. 59*(62%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 62* by 9am. 70* by Noon. 76* by 3pm. 77* at 4pm. Reached 79*/80* near 6pm. 68* at 11pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 85° Philadelphia: 82° Tomorrow will be fair and unseasonably warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: 1993 here we come.....get that ring of fire established and let's have that SE ridge move inland into the SE and stay there for the entire summer. Why ugh, I thought you love hot and dry summers too? The only way to fix that NYC foliage problem is to KILL it and no rain will do that Good morning, Liberty. We should get some interesting CPK readings if and/or when the cicada swarm ever emerges. As always ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 whatever the weather is just make the pollen stop. popping so many allergy pills the kids call me Rite Aid. i think at this point i'll take hot and humid over hot and dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 low of 46 now to 71 and it feels very warm already. Should get to the mid 80s inland and expect the area to exceed guidance with mostly sunny conditions as it looks to stay clear through the afternoon. Chance at 90s for the typical warmer spots with 850 at 14C-15C tomorrow. Thu - Sat pending on clouds and ocean influence looks to keep temps parked in the low 80s (max) or upper 70s. I do think Thu may overperform inland. Sun (5/23) - Wed (5/26) could see more chances at 90 and perhaps in the extreme the season's opening heat wave for some. Guidance has surge of 850 temps >16c by Tue and wed. Beyond there it looks overall warm with higher heights building back along the east coast towards the holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 82 here, warmest day of the year so far. Finally surpassing March’s 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 81 here as of 2PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 Current temp is 84 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 84° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 7 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: whatever the weather is just make the pollen stop. popping so many allergy pills the kids call me Rite Aid. i think at this point i'll take hot and humid over hot and dry. the hot and dry is what my allergies nonexistent this year, it's the humid weather that makes it really bad remember, no allergies in the desert the desert actually has the cleanest lowest levels of air pollution much lower asthma rates too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Cfa said: 82 here, warmest day of the year so far. Finally surpassing March’s 80. Down to 74 here, these mid-day highs feel foreign to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 82 for a high, sitting at 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 1 hour ago, STORMANLI said: 84° Ditto, 83.5 here for the high. Down to 77 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2021 Author Share Posted May 18, 2021 Looks like we will have to keep watering through at least the weekend. The record rains have been along the western side of the ridge. This is our 2nd dry spring in row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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