May 2021

[forkyfork]

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

beautiful cool weather cold enough to wear gloves on in the morning lol..

6 degrees above the record low which has stood since 1874

[forkyfork]

16/31 of knyc's may record lows are over 100 years old. conversely, only 6/31 record highs are over 100 years old

[uncle W]

It was colder during the ice age. It was warmer after snowball earth...

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, gravitylover said:

That's not necessary at all. I don't understand the desire for crazy high temps, you go out for a few minutes then need to go back into a climate controlled place. Personally I don't really like AC and find it quite wasteful so maybe that tempers my feeling towards high temps. I also think it's just so comfortable when it's in the mid 80's that I can't figure out why you'd want to be uncomfortable just to see those high numbers recorded.

I like high heat with very low humidity, that really keeps the bugs away plus I like hitting historic numbers

It also means the temps cool down nicely at night.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The summer maximums are rising nearly as fast as the minimums. The minimums are increasing only about a tenth of a degree per decade faster. Since 1981,  the highs are increasing at +0.6°per decade vs +0.7° for the lows.  Last summer was the 2nd warmest with numerous top 10s since 2015.  We have also had numerous top 10 summers for 90° days away from the sea breeze. So the rising high temperatures have been driven by more 90° days while the 100°s have been fairly steady since 1981. 

201006 - 201008	75.2°F	126	3.5°F
202006 - 202008	74.4°F	125	2.7°F
201606 - 201608	74.2°F	124	2.5°F
200506 - 200508	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
201106 - 201108	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
199906 - 199908	73.7°F	121	2.0°F
201206 - 201208	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201806 - 201808	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201906 - 201908	73.2°F	118	1.5°F
201506 - 201508	73.1°F	117	1.4°F
194906 - 194908	73.0°F	116	1.3°F

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	48	0
2	2018	38	0
3	2002	35	0
4	2020	34	0
-	1991	34	0
5	2016	32	0
6	1983	31	0
7	2005	30	0
-	1953	30	0
8	1955	29	0
-	1944	29	0
9	2012	28	0
-	1949	28	0
10	1959	27	0

But then why have we been having problems with 90 degree high quantities.....the records from 1991 and 1993 still hold, although it should really be 2010 (which in itself was 11 years ago.)  And what has caused the sea breeze to be more active now than it was back then?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s interesting how blocking has less of a cooling influence as we move into the summer. In fact, our hottest summers since 2010 have had strong blocking patterns. The last 11 year summer composite has featured some of the strongest summer blocking on record. The period also featured our hottest summers on record. 9 out of 11 years recorded above average summer temperatures. Only 2014 and 2017 came in near or below average on the temperatures. But those summers had strong blocking like the warmer ones. The one difference is on the Pacific side. The warmer than average summers had the North Pacific ridge axis to the north of Hawaii. During the cooler 2014 and 2017 summers, this ridge was located over Western North America. So we need blocking to combine with a stronger ridge near the PACNW for more comfortable temperatures. 

 

Chris can you give a full list of the analogs you've found?  Anything from 2010-13 is impressive, but we haven't had the 100 degree extreme heat since that torrid stretch.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

GFS Clown Model Outputting continues.       The other models are also lost on a Coney Island Dark Ride.

My prediction- first chance for 90s will be Memorial Day weekend.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But then why have we been having problems with 90 degree high quantities.....the records from 1991 and 1993 still hold, although it should really be 2010 (which in itself was 11 years ago.)  And what has caused the sea breeze to be more active now than it was back then?

 

 

90° days have been near record highs last few years away from the sea breeze. Farmingdale finished with 20 days last summer just behind 2010. LGA has had 3 top 5 finishes since 2015. Harrison, NJ was far enough from the Newark bay breeze to almost reach 50 days in 2018. Places like Newark airport and JFK are very sensitive to SSE flow. So they do better with SW to W flow. Harrison and Farmingdale only go back to 2000. But all of our hottest summers have occurred since then.

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	24	2
2	2020	20	2
3	2002	17	4
4	2005	15	1
5	2016	14	9

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	48	0
2	2018	38	0
3	2002	35	0
4	2020	34	0
-	1991	34	0
5	2016	32	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	50	30
2	2018	47	0
-	2002	47	8
3	2005	41	9
4	2016	40	0
5	2020	39	0
-	2019	39	0

[uncle W]

I'll take a hot Summer like 1955, 1966, 1977, 1993, 2002 and 2010 as long as the following winter was like those years...

[nycwinter]

31 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I'll take a hot Summer like 1955, 1966, 1977, 1993, 2002 and 2010 as long as the following winter was like those years...

no...

[doncat]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

90° days have been near record highs last few years away from the sea breeze. Farmingdale finished with 20 days last summer just behind 2010. LGA has had 3 top 5 finishes since 2015. Harrison, NJ was far enough from the Newark bay breeze to almost reach 50 days in 2018. Places like Newark airport and JFK are very sensitive to SSE flow. So they do better with SW to W flow. Harrison and Farmingdale only go back to 2000. But all of our hottest summers have occurred since then.

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	24	2
2	2020	20	2
3	2002	17	4
4	2005	15	1
5	2016	14	9

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	48	0
2	2018	38	0
3	2002	35	0
4	2020	34	0
-	1991	34	0
5	2016	32	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	50	30
2	2018	47	0
-	2002	47	8
3	2005	41	9
4	2016	40	0
5	2020	39	0
-	2019	39	0

The above Harrison station averages close to 12 more 90° days each season than my SI station based on those seven years listed.... 2019 had 21 more.

[donsutherland1]

A gradual warming trend will likely commence starting tomorrow. For the remainder of the week, temperatures will likely top out in the 70s in much of the region.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The current PNA forecast provides a fresh hint of a noticeably warmer end to the month. The PNA is currently forecast by most ensemble members to fall to -1.000 or below during the second half of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +5.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.282 today.

On May 10 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.275 (RMM). The May 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.296 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.2° (1.0° below normal).

 

[uncle W]

1969 had a very hot ending to May...I played in a softball game in central park on the day it hit 97 ...1986 and 1987 ended May in the mid 90's...

some hot endings to May...

5/25-27/1880....95 95 96

5/30-6/3 1895....90 96 96 96 95

5/26-28/ 1914....94 95 87

5/28-31/ 1939....90 90 89 96

5/29-31/ 1969....97 90 87

5/30-6/1 1986....94 93 90

5/29-6/1 1987....96 97 94 93

 

 

[weatherfreeeeak]

No substantial rain for the next 10 days...

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(55/73), or about +1.0.

Month to date is  57.7[-3.1].       Should be about  60.2[-1.5] by the 21st.

The new flip your T lid date is being pushed further out with today's runs.

Made it to 70 yesterday, but wind spoiled it a bit.

53*(44%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.     63/62* by Noon.           64* by 3pm.         65/64* at 4pm.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, doncat said:

The above Harrison station averages close to 12 more 90° days each season than my SI station based on those seven years listed.... 2019 had 21 more.

You can see how the more onshore flow since 2018 has allowed Harrison to pull ahead of Newark. During the previous years with less sea breeze activity, both stations were nearly equal in 90° days and summer maximum temperature. This reflects the record ridging near and east of New England last 3 summers producing more S to SSE flow. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 + Max	Harrison
2020	31     96	39     98
2019	27     99	39    101
2018	36     98	47     101
2017	22    99	23       98
2016	40    99	40     100
2015	35      98	32      99
2014	15      98	16      95
2013	25     101	25     102
2012	33     104	35      103
2011	31     108	31     107
2010	54    103*	50     106

* 2010 thermometer malfunction at Newark during hottest day of year leaving high 3° too cool

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 71°

Newark: 73°

Philadelphia: 71°

Tomorrow will be fair and warm.

[jm1220]

Cold morning in the more rural areas. 34 at Westhampton this AM. 

[IrishRob17]

55 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Cold morning in the more rural areas. 34 at Westhampton this AM. 

36 IMBY

[psv88]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Cold morning in the more rural areas. 34 at Westhampton this AM. 

40 here

[Rtd208]

Nice day out there. A little warmer would be nice but close enough.

Current temp is 70 here.

[Cfa]

64 here (clouds), high of 70 so far. Low was 46.

[FPizz]

Nice split today, 37 this morning, 73 now with not a lot of wind finally.  I'll take that any day.  

[nycwinter]

still very nice and cool in the morning in nyc..

[psv88]

74 today, 73 now. Making progress. 

[LoboLeader1]

Reached 71 here today, currently 67 under a clear sky.

[SnoSki14]

Nice seasonal progression. Love those cool mornings.

[doncat]

73/43 temp split today.

[weathermedic]

68/53 at my station today.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will likely top out in the 70s in much of the region through the weekend. A minor push of slightly cooler air is possible early next week before a potentially more impressive warmup unfolds.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in combination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The PNA has just gone negative with a preliminary value of -0.529 today. The current PNA forecast provides a fresh hint of a noticeably warmer end to the month. The PNA is currently forecast by most ensemble members to fall to -1.000 or below during the second half of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +8.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.373 today.

On May 11 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.011 (RMM). The May 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.276 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.2° (1.0° below normal).