May 2021

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Martha’s Vineyard: 46

Monticello: 35

Mount Pocono: 32

Westhampton: 31

Thanks Don!  Do you have one for MJX (Toms River) too?

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

This April/May period is what we need to monitor to see if this trend of extreme MJO and temperature variability continues.  It's particularly damaging to plants when you have this kind of pattern.

 

The weather swings from warm to cold were even more extreme in Europe this spring.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don!  Do you have one for MJX (Toms River) too?

 

The low there was 37.

[donsutherland1]

Sunshine gradually yielded to clouds. Light rain arrived during the late afternoon. Ahead of the arrival of the light rain, deer basked in open.

[MJO812]

Snowing in parts of PA

[Santa Claus]

is it just me or are there a bunch of deer out there that look a lot mangier than past years

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

is it just me or are there a bunch of deer out there that look a lot mangier than past years

It’s possible, but some of these are young deer. There’s an area at which they used to graze that is now fenced off and is being turned into garden on the adjacent plot of land. At the same time, the deer population has increased over that of last year. 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don!  Do you have one for MJX (Toms River) too?

 

You can look at this stuff up online at noaa.gov. You just type in the city you want to know about. 

[etudiant]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s possible, but some of these are young deer. There’s an area at which they used to graze that is now fenced off and is being turned into garden on the adjacent plot of land. At the same time, the deer population has increased over that of last year. 

Deer populations in the East are way above normal carrying capacity, thanks to the absence of predators and the proliferation of edge habitat due to suburban sprawl.

Lyme disease is likely to have a great time this year, not too dry a winter for the ticks and plenty of deer to feed on.

Iirc, Greenwich Audubon had about 600 deer on their roughly 1 square mile property, they tried to cull the herd with bow hunters over a salt lick, with no real effect.

So the ground cover and low nesting birds are toast.

Eventually there will be a disease that culls the herd, most likely something such as Chronic Wasting Disease, which is as ugly as it sounds.

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Deer populations in the East are way above normal carrying capacity, thanks to the absence of predators and the proliferation of edge habitat due to suburban sprawl.

Lyme disease is likely to have a great time this year, not too dry a winter for the ticks and plenty of deer to feed on.

Iirc, Greenwich Audubon had about 600 deer on their roughly 1 square mile property, they tried to cull the herd with bow hunters over a salt lick, with no real effect.

So the ground cover and low nesting birds are toast.

Eventually there will be a disease that culls the herd, most likely something such as Chronic Wasting Disease, which is as ugly as it sounds.

Unfortunately, that could well be the case. I haven’t been to the Greenwich Audubon lately, but will probably stop there at some point this summer. There has been an increase in coyotes in the Rye area. They haven’t bothered me, even when I have encountered them, but some people are spooked.

[uncle W]

Saw a few deer the other night a few blocks from my house...A buck and a little doe as curly would say...

[SACRUS]

Looking like a nice stretch of dry / sunny weather Mon 5/10 - Thu 5/13 with temps increasing from the 60s to low 70 by Thu.  Fri may see more clouds and rain before a stronger warmeup  5/18 - 5/20.

[donsutherland1]

Periods of rain and showers will end late tonight or early tomorrow morning and clouds will break during the day. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal, generally rising into the lower 60s across much of the region.

Generally somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings will likely continue through the middle of this week before a gradual warming trend commences late in the week. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case.

An impressive cold shot is likely in the Plains States Wednesday and Thursday. Afterward, the core of the cold air mass will move into the Southeast and then out to the Atlantic Ocean. The northern Middle Atlantic region and southern New England areas will only be grazed by this cold air mass.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The latest PNA forecast provides a fresh hint of a noticeably warmer end to the month. The PNA is currently forecast by most ensemble members to fall to -1.000 or below during the second half of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +5.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.228 today.

On May 7 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.041 (RMM). The May 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.368 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (1.2° below normal).

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.35" of rain for the day. 

2 day rainfall total 0.90"

Current temp 47 

[TriPol]

This is not bee friendly weather at all.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, etudiant said:

Deer populations in the East are way above normal carrying capacity, thanks to the absence of predators and the proliferation of edge habitat due to suburban sprawl.

Lyme disease is likely to have a great time this year, not too dry a winter for the ticks and plenty of deer to feed on.

Iirc, Greenwich Audubon had about 600 deer on their roughly 1 square mile property, they tried to cull the herd with bow hunters over a salt lick, with no real effect.

So the ground cover and low nesting birds are toast.

Eventually there will be a disease that culls the herd, most likely something such as Chronic Wasting Disease, which is as ugly as it sounds.

How about we bring the predators back and human beings stop interfering with nature?

[LoboLeader1]

0.34" of rain here over night. Current temp is 45 as of 6AM.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(51/71), or about -1.0.

Today is the first day with a normal high of 70.      For the next 136 days a high T under 70 is BN.         Then comes what I like to call the 80/80 period in NYC.      80 straight days with a normal high of at least 80...........June 16 to September 03.

GFS with little rain(0.4"<) over the next 10 days and a muted warmup over the next 15, ie.few 80's.   Will be going AN on those next 8 days.

48*(95%RH), here at 6am, overcast, street wet.       51* by 9am.         56* by Noon with breaks in the clouds.          Reached 62* at 5pm.

[etudiant]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How about we bring the predators back and human beings stop interfering with nature?

Afaik, coyotes can take a deer, but pumas and wolves are really much more suitable. Good luck getting their return accepted by suburban America.

[cleetussnow]

14 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Afaik, coyotes can take a deer, but pumas and wolves are really much more suitable. Good luck getting their return accepted by suburban America.

I am in mid Westchester and frequently walk my dog in the nearby forested  parks.  Deer kill sites are not uncommon.  Coyotes have no problem with deer.  

I have never seen as many coyotes, foxes and bobcats as I have recently, and I am talking about on my street as much as the woods.  They have plenty of deer and rabbits to munch on!  

Also the ticks are prolific.  The dog and I both have already been hit. I had to take an anti biotic because of lime.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

This morning, Central Park recorded a low of 47°, the 5th day this month that the low temperature was below 50°. Last year, there were 12 such days. The 1981-2010 average was 7.1 days and the 1991-2020 average is 6.6 days. May 2021 will likely finish with 6-9 such days.

Clouds will gradually give way to some sunshine, especially south and west of New York City and Newark. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 63°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 65°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and a bit milder. After midweek, a warming trend will commence.

[bluewave]

Euro and EPS upgrade on Tuesday.
 

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

This morning, Central Park recorded a low of 47°, the 5th day this month that the low temperature was below 50°. Last year, there were 12 such days. The 1981-2010 average was 7.1 days and the 1991-2020 average is 6.6 days. May 2021 will likely finish with 6-9 such days.

Clouds will gradually give way to some sunshine, especially south and west of New York City and Newark. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 63°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 65°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and a bit milder. After midweek, a warming trend will commence.

we should be adding to that below 50 low stat this week

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny but still cool for the season. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 60s.

Generally somewhat cooler than normal temperatures with perhaps a day of much below normal readings will likely continue through the middle of this week before a gradual warming trend commences late in the week. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case.

An impressive cold shot is likely in the Plains States Wednesday and Thursday. Afterward, the core of the cold air mass will move into the Southeast and then out to the Atlantic Ocean. The northern Middle Atlantic region and southern New England areas will only be grazed by this cold air mass.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The latest PNA forecast provides a fresh hint of a noticeably warmer end to the month. The PNA is currently forecast by most ensemble members to fall to -1.000 or below during the second half of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +7.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.054 today.

On May 8 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The May 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.039 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (1.2° below normal).

 

[uncle W]

so far May 8th has the coldest max temp for the month with a max of 55...the average since 1930 is 53.8...2019 and 2020 had one day with a max of 48...1967 and 1977 have the coldest max with 44...1941, 1969 and 1991 have the highest number with 63 as the coldest max for the month...Dates with the most coolest days of the month are...

May 2nd...8 years...

May 19th..7 years...

May 8th....7 years...

May 7th....7 years...

May 11th..6 years...

May 9th....6 years...

May 1st.....6 years...

May 13th...5 years...

May 3rd.....5 years...

May 25th...4 years...

 

May's coldest maximum temperature since 1930...

May's coldest max day...

1930.....54.....5/19...

1931.....50.....5/13

1932.....56.....5/08...

1933.....53.....5/06...

1934.....56.....5/25

1935.....51.....5/04

1936.....52.....5/28

1937.....56.....5/08

1938.....55.....5/15

1939.....52.....5/13......53.5

 

1940.....60.....5/26

1941.....63.....5/03

1942.....51.....5/09

1943.....53.....5/01

1944.....58.....5/24

1945.....50.....5/01

1946.....51.....5/01

1947.....48.....5/02

1948.....51.....5/07

1949.....59.....5/11...54.4

 

1950.....48.....5/19

1951.....55.....5/11

1952.....54.....5/20

1953.....48.....5/02

1954.....52.....5/10

1955.....56.....5/09

1956.....53.....5/07

1957.....51.....5/20

1958.....46.....5/06

1959.....57.....5/15.....52.0

 

1960.....52.....5/01

1961.....47.....5/27

1962.....45.....5/02

1963.....52.....5/11

1964.....59.....5/02

1965.....52.....5/07

1966.....52.....5/09

1967.....44.....5/07

1968.....56.....5/28

1969.....63.....5/07.....52.2

 

1970.....55.....5/06

1971.....55.....5/09

1972.....49.....5/09

1973.....56.....5/21

1974.....52.....5/03

1975.....55.....5/01

1976.....52.....5/19

1977.....44.....5/09

1978.....45.....5/05

1979.....61.....5/19.....52.4

 

1980.....56.....5/08

1981.....62.....5/02

1982.....55.....5/24

1983.....57.....5/27

1984.....55.....5/16

1985.....53.....5/03

1986.....55.....5/03

1987.....48.....5/04

1988.....56.....5/02

1989.....53.....5/10.....55.0

 

1990.....51.....5/21

1991.....63.....5/03

1992.....54.....5/08

1993.....56.....5/19

1994.....54.....5/19

1995.....52.....5/02

1996.....54.....6/16

1997.....56.....5/07

1998.....57.....5/11

1999.....58.....5/07.....55.5

 

2000.....51.....5/20

2001.....57.....5/25

2002.....53.....5/13

2003.....56.....5/26

2004.....61.....5/08

2005.....53.....5/25

2006.....61.....5/19

2007.....54.....5/18

2008.....54.....5/12

2009.....54.....5/05.....55.4

 

2010.....48.....5/12

2011.....58.....5/22

2012.....53.....5/02

2013.....54.....5/25

2014.....59.....5/08

2015.....62.....5/21

2016.....51.....5/01

2017.....53.....5/13

2018.....54.....5/13

2019.....48.....5/13.....54.0

 

2020.....48.....5/09

2021.....51.....5/29.....49.5

 

ave.......53.8

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 62degs.(52/72) or just Normal.

Month to date is  57.7[-2.8].         Should be about 59.7[-1.6] by the 19th.

None of the models is quite making it to 80 over the next 10-15 days.         Not much rain showing either for at least a week.        After a minor peak near the 18th/19th, the T may take it on the chin again near the 21st..........

51*(52%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.      52* at 7am.          59* by Noon.         65* by 3pm, but m. cloudy.         58* by 9pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°

Newark: 67°

Philadelphia: 67°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasant following an unseasonably cold start. A warming trend will commence afterward.

[FPizz]

38 this morning.  

[ForestHillWx]

28 minutes ago, FPizz said:

38 this morning.  

Heat is still kicking on at my house. I told my family this weekend the heat will be shut-off regardless. 

[gravitylover]

75-85 is fine. Those 90's don't have to get here.