May 2021

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Trash weather.  49 and drizzle in May.  Still waiting for constant 70s and sun

why does this kind of weather still even exist in May?  I want global temps to warm by 10C so this is gone forever.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

No I'm talking about greenery on top of buildings and the community gardens and urban farming are actually places in Queens and the Bronx where people are growing their own food to get away from the processed crap that passes for "food" these days.

https://www.nybg.org/gardens/bronx-green-up/urban-farming-community-gardening/

 

Thanks to things like this, people never have to eat diabetes and obesity causing crap anymore.

Lots of amazing stuff being done to eliminate the food deserts in NYC.

 

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC got into the low 30's last May...A standard recprd low with the lowest 34 degree temp for so late in the season...it was the first time since 1978 NYC got below 40 in May...years since 1960 that had temps below 40 in May...it happened seven times in 16 years...then it took 42 years for it to happen again...

1963...38...

1966...36...

1967...39...

1970...38...

1976...38...

1977...36...

1978...38...

2020...34...

wow can you recheck that please....I thought we got down into the 30s in May 1992, not sure of the day.....but I remember the low was 39 in NYC and 37 at JFK (and 36 here just east of JFK)

It was cloudy as I recall it with temps in the 40s for most of the day and even snow flurries in Morristown.

May 1996 we had a heavy frost here on Long Island on the 14th (Monday morning), and a low of 33-34.  Had 1-3 inches of snow in the Poconos after severe wx and a frontal passage, some trees snapped and came down during the snow.

 

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's coming

 

240 lol

[bluewave]

Strong -NAO and record MJO are producing quite a bit of high temperature volatility.

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Max Temperature Departure
2021-04-01	58	1.4
2021-04-02	40	-17.0
2021-04-03	54	-3.4
2021-04-04	67	9.1
2021-04-05	70	11.7
2021-04-06	71	12.3
2021-04-07	71	11.9
2021-04-08	68	8.4
2021-04-09	53	-7.0
2021-04-10	67	6.6
2021-04-11	58	-2.9
2021-04-12	50	-11.3
2021-04-13	66	4.3
2021-04-14	72	9.9
2021-04-15	58	-4.5
2021-04-16	55	-7.9
2021-04-17	54	-9.4
2021-04-18	63	-0.8
2021-04-19	68	3.8
2021-04-20	78	13.5
2021-04-21	75	10.1
2021-04-22	51	-14.3
2021-04-23	67	1.3
2021-04-24	72	5.9
2021-04-25	67	0.6
2021-04-26	64	-2.8
2021-04-27	63	-4.1
2021-04-28	89	21.5
2021-04-29	80	12.2
2021-04-30	73	4.9
2021-05-01	68	-0.4
2021-05-02	86	17.3
2021-05-03	71	2.0
2021-05-04	75	5.7
2021-05-05	64	-5.6
2021-05-06	69	-0.9
2021-05-07	66	-4.2
2021-05-08	55	-16.0

[forkyfork]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

240 lol

all three ensemble means agreeing lol

[CIK62]

WELL IT IS NOT COMING ON THE GFS OP AGAIN.        DOWN BY 30 DEGREES IN TWO RUNS ON THE 19TH.        THESE FLIPS KEEP HAPPENING.       IS THIS SCIENCE OR SHOULD WE INCORPORATE THESE OUTPUTS SOMEHOW IN OUR  LOTTERY GAME CHOICES?   

 

[donsutherland1]

Today was cloudy and cool. Temperatures remained in the lower and middle 50s. Occasional light rain and drizzle occurred from time to time. Some photos from the still evolving spring landscape at the New York Botanical Garden:

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Strong -NAO and record MJO are producing quite a bit of high temperature volatility.

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Max Temperature Departure
2021-04-01	58	1.4
2021-04-02	40	-17.0
2021-04-03	54	-3.4
2021-04-04	67	9.1
2021-04-05	70	11.7
2021-04-06	71	12.3
2021-04-07	71	11.9
2021-04-08	68	8.4
2021-04-09	53	-7.0
2021-04-10	67	6.6
2021-04-11	58	-2.9
2021-04-12	50	-11.3
2021-04-13	66	4.3
2021-04-14	72	9.9
2021-04-15	58	-4.5
2021-04-16	55	-7.9
2021-04-17	54	-9.4
2021-04-18	63	-0.8
2021-04-19	68	3.8
2021-04-20	78	13.5
2021-04-21	75	10.1
2021-04-22	51	-14.3
2021-04-23	67	1.3
2021-04-24	72	5.9
2021-04-25	67	0.6
2021-04-26	64	-2.8
2021-04-27	63	-4.1
2021-04-28	89	21.5
2021-04-29	80	12.2
2021-04-30	73	4.9
2021-05-01	68	-0.4
2021-05-02	86	17.3
2021-05-03	71	2.0
2021-05-04	75	5.7
2021-05-05	64	-5.6
2021-05-06	69	-0.9
2021-05-07	66	-4.2
2021-05-08	55	-16.0

any idea why this keeps happening in May?  It seems like this has become way more common since about 2010

 

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

WELL IT IS NOT COMING ON THE GFS OP AGAIN.        DOWN BY 30 DEGREES IN TWO RUNS ON THE 19TH.        THESE FLIPS KEEP HAPPENING.       IS THIS SCIENCE OR SHOULD WE INCORPORATE THESE OUTPUTS SOMEHOW IN OUR  LOTTERY GAME CHOICES?   

 

lol did you get a load of the 20th- 48 hi 46 lo .....must be a cold windy rainy day.....44 is the low the following night.  Well at least next weekend is awesome, with highs in the upper 70s and sunny I'd assume.

 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow can you recheck that please....I thought we got down into the 30s in May 1992, not sure of the day.....but I remember the low was 39 in NYC and 37 at JFK (and 36 here just east of JFK)

It was cloudy as I recall it with temps in the 40s for most of the day and even snow flurries in Morristown.

May 1996 we had a heavy frost here on Long Island on the 14th (Monday morning), and a low of 33-34.  Had 1-3 inches of snow in the Poconos after severe wx and a frontal passage, some trees snapped and came down during the snow.

 

40 in 1992...

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

40 in 1992...

but 37 at JFK?

also what date was that and what was the high?

 

do you have anything from there for May 14, 1996?

 

[donsutherland1]

Any early sunshine will yield to increasing clouds tomorrow. It will be somewhat milder than today. Showers and rain could arrive during the afternoon or evening hours.

Generally somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings will likely continue at least into the middle of next week. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +10.21 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.211 today.

On May 6 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.740 (RMM). The May 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.740 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (1.2° below normal).

 

 

[uncle W]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but 37 at JFK?

also what date was that and what was the high?

 

do you have anything from there for May 14, 1996?

 

you can find it all here...

xmACIS2 (rcc-acis.org)

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Any early sunshine will yield to increasing clouds tomorrow. It will be somewhat milder than today. Showers and rain could arrive during the afternoon or evening hours.

Generally somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings will likely continue at least into the middle of next week. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +10.21 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.211 today.

On May 6 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.740 (RMM). The May 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.740 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (1.2° below normal).

 

 

wow how is the probability of a cooler than normal May so high (67 pct) when we're only a quarter of the way through the month, Don?

 

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow how is the probability of a cooler than normal May so high (67 pct) when we're only a quarter of the way through the month, Don?

 

It’s now pegged to the new normals.

I still suspect that it will turn much warmer in late May. That’s not yet on the guidance.

[rclab]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why does this kind of weather still even exist in May?  I want global temps to warm by 10C so this is gone forever.

Good evening Liberty. If your wish was granted the average world temperature would rise to above 105 F. Some small part of the Antarctic archipelago might still be habitable between June and September as would whatever land that was still above water north of the Arctic circle between December and March. Well, your correct, the cool May along with every thing else would certainly be gone forever. As always ....

[dave0176]

Truthfully I get what some guys are saying, we’re not looking for heat, mid 60s and sunshine is fine with me. But I’m also one that keeps saying lately spring has become my least favorite season.

In the last 10 years MANY motorcycle spring events I used to attend have been canceled and no longer occur until Autumn or later in the summer which of course is not fun being on air cooled engines lol. Their reasoning is bad weather every year and it costs money to set these events up only to have them constantly canceled.

For me the cooler weather keeps us less busy because as soon as the extreme heat gets here we’ll be working 12 hrs a day 6-7 days a week until it finally calms down a bit. 

[uncle W]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why does this kind of weather still even exist in May?  I want global temps to warm by 10C so this is gone forever.

you have to keep burning fossil fuels for that...or maybe a meteor strike will do the trick...

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good evening Liberty. If your wish was granted the average world temperature would rise to above 105 F. Some small part of the Antarctic archipelago might still be habitable between June and September as would whatever land that was still above water north of the Arctic circle between December and March. Well, your correct, the cool May along with every thing else would certainly gone forever. As always ....

I know I was jesting.  I just want Spring to be warmer, this weather is bad for yard work.  I think Siberia has already risen 10C or 18F.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

you have to keep burning fossil fuels for that...or maybe a meteor strike will do the trick...

I'd like a much more regulated climate rather than back and forth between a few days in the 80s and a few in the 50s and even a scattered frost thrown in here and there.  At my other house it's going to be close to freezing tonight so there could be some damage to spring plants.  My azaleas =\

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

Truthfully I get what some guys are saying, we’re not looking for heat, mid 60s and sunshine is fine with me. But I’m also one that keeps saying lately spring has become my least favorite season.

In the last 10 years MANY motorcycle spring events I used to attend have been canceled and no longer occur until Autumn or later in the summer which of course is not fun being on air cooled engines lol. Their reasoning is bad weather every year and it costs money to set these events up only to have them constantly canceled.

For me the cooler weather keeps us less busy because as soon as the extreme heat gets here we’ll be working 12 hrs a day 6-7 days a week until it finally calms down a bit. 

I cant stand Spring either, although this one hasn't been as bad as last year, less rain so less allergies for me.  But now this drab overcast stuff is something I really hate, when did NY become the new Seattle?  NY is supposed to have a lot more sunshine than this, it's May not March.

 

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd like a much more regulated climate rather than back and forth between a few days in the 80s and a few in the 50s and even a scattered frost thrown in here and there.  At my other house it's going to be close to freezing tonight so there could be some damage to spring plants.  My azaleas =\

 

it happens almost every year...a cold shot in May...last year was as extreme as it gets in May...May days with a max in the 40's can make you shiver...1978 had three such days... 1962 also...both years ended up with 90's for highs before the month ended...

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

it happens almost every year...a cold shot in May...last year was as extreme as it gets in May...May days with a max in the 40's can make you shiver...1978 had three such days... 1962 also...both years ended up with 90's for highs before the month ended...

Last year was historic, so I actually enjoyed that.  May maxes in the 40s are my benchmark, how many have we had since 1978?

In other news did you see the forecast for that Chinese space rocket?  It's going to pass right over our heads before dropping into the middle of the Atlantic.  If that forecast is off by only 30 min......

 

[TriPol]

3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

WELL IT IS NOT COMING ON THE GFS OP AGAIN.        DOWN BY 30 DEGREES IN TWO RUNS ON THE 19TH.        THESE FLIPS KEEP HAPPENING.       IS THIS SCIENCE OR SHOULD WE INCORPORATE THESE OUTPUTS SOMEHOW IN OUR  LOTTERY GAME CHOICES?   

 

44 degrees on May 21? Geez.

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Last year was historic, so I actually enjoyed that.  May maxes in the 40s are my benchmark, how many have we had since 1978?

In other news did you see the forecast for that Chinese space rocket?  It's going to pass right over our heads before dropping into the middle of the Atlantic.  If that forecast is off by only 30 min......

 

The rocket can be tracked here:

https://mapshot.app/pkg/longmarch.html

 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The rocket can be tracked here:

https://mapshot.app/pkg/longmarch.html

 

Thanks Don, now predicted to be over the Indian Ocean?  How often do these forecasts change?  Doesn't say much for our prediction skills, I shudder to think when we have to predict where and when an asteroid or comet is going to hit.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, now predicted to be over the Indian Ocean?  How often do these forecasts change?  Doesn't say much for our prediction skills, I shudder to think when we have to predict where and when an asteroid or comet is going to hit.

 

 

The velocity of an asteroid or comet would be greater and that might allow for better predictions. The predictions of the rocket haven’t been great in terms of re-entry and impact.

P.S. Multiple news sources are now saying it crashed.

[SRRTA22]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The velocity of an asteroid or comet would be greater and that might allow for better predictions. The predictions of the rocket haven’t been great in terms of re-entry and timing. It’s increasingly likely to re-enter and crash near or after midnight.

It's already crashed. Right into the Indian Ocean. People reported seeing it low in altitude over the middle-east. Trending on twitter now

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, SRRTA22 said:

It's already crashed. Right into the Indian Ocean. People reported seeing it low in altitude over the middle-east. Trending on twitter now

The live app tracking it is probably off. I saw the breaking news moments ago.