weatherextreme Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 SPC D5 15% highlighted outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Monday has looked like an odd setup with funky lower level wind profiles, but the 500mb pattern is definitely intriguing. Euro has slowly been trending towards higher dews farther west, meeting up with the stronger upper level winds. Will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Big northward shift for the D4 update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Thinking this will be my first solid chase of the season here in NE OK if this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Fairly notable differences for Monday between the core models we typically base our forecasts off, GFS and NAM are further east with the cold front on Monday while the ECMWF develops a triple point with a SFC low across central OK with a weak dryline extending southward into northern Texas. on Monday afternoon/evening. ECMWF solution would actually be quite interesting from a chasing perspective, while the NAM and GFS would probably yield mostly nocturnal SVR-caliber storms along the cold front. Interested to see if the 12z Euro "sticks to its guns." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 D3 slight not even rrmotely close to the original D5. Barely inside this subforum! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 3 hours ago, TheSuckZone said: Seems like this is going to be one of these slow years then boom, 1 major event defines the whole season. Or, it could just be like the past few years: ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ At this point, I'll be happy with just getting another derecho in the middle of June (ala 2019). I just want out of this pattern of BN temps and grungy / gloomy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Powerball said: Or, it could just be like the past few years: ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ At this point, I'll be happy with just getting another derecho in the middle of June (ala 2019). I just want out of this pattern of BN temps and grungy / gloomy skies. You live in Addison TX. Have you not been paying attention to the past week in N TX? 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 I found a new website that can overlay parameters from several models. As you can see the NAM has over 4000 J/kg of CAPE near the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This NAM forecast is relevant to May 3rd. The NAM and GFS both show a capping layer, perhaps meaning that few storms may form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Chinook said: I found a new website that can overlay parameters from several models. As you can see the NAM has over 4000 J/kg of CAPE near the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This NAM forecast is relevant to May 3rd. The NAM and GFS both show a capping layer, perhaps meaning that few storms may form. Those are pretty high CAPE values for 06Z (1 AM CDT), but not entirely unexpected that there would be a capping layer at that time of night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 The 12z Euro (and at least a couple previous runs) would indicate an MCS forming over OK/MO/AR Monday evening/night. The GFS/NAM not really excited about that at this time. It has been slower with the front when compared to the NAM/GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 The SPC has upgraded the outlook tomorrow somewhat to have enhanced outlook, specifically just a 30% wind risk from areas near Tulsa across AR/MO over to near Louisville KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Enhanced Risk for today. Will the 5% Tor continue it's streak? Many noteworthy days so far this year have happened on a 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Gotta say, it is interesting to see the Hi-Res models are bullish with convection this evening around DFW. 5000 J/KG of CAPE and nearly 9 C/KM mid-level lapse rates are advertised around the same time on the 3km NAM, so it would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Medium tornado potential according to TSA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Holy 12z HRRR helicity swaths for NW/northern TX this afternoon... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 This could be another one of those days where we see monster-sized hail somewhere in the Metroplex, if the cap weakens as the Hi-Res models are advertising. I'm surprised the SPC hasn't at least expanded the Slight Risk area southward along the dry line, given they done so all season up until now when the Hi-Res models looked less impressive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Powerball said: This could be another one of those days where we see monster-sized hail somewhere in the Metroplex, if the cap weakens as the Hi-Res models are advertising. I'm surprised the SPC hasn't at least expanded the Slight Risk area southward along the dry line, given they done so all season up until now when the Hi-Res models looked less impressive. BTW, I should add, one thing we got going for us this time (finally) is that the much of the day will feature full sunshine. Couldn't really say that for the other events we've had this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Good sign for the slight risk (or maybe even enhanced risk?) area expanding into DFW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 3, 2021 Author Share Posted May 3, 2021 NWS Fort Worth @NWSFortWorth · 57m The Fort Worth radar (KFWS) is being taken down for a few hours to replace a bearing before the storms develop. It should return to service by 3PM today, if not sooner. #dfwwx #txwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Just now, weatherextreme said: NWS Fort Worth @NWSFortWorth · 57m The Fort Worth radar (KFWS) is being taken down for a few hours to replace a bearing before the storms develop. It should return to service by 3PM today, if not sooner. #dfwwx #txwx lol. I applaud them for doing this ahead of the storms. I just hope nothing else goes wrong that delays this repair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Yeah hoping it gets back up in time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Latest forecast for my area from FWD (previously, it only called for a 20% slight chance of t'storm this evening). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 On 4/29/2021 at 12:25 PM, weatherextreme said: SPC D5 15% highlighted outlook What a mess of a setup. This map might end up being closer to correct after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 22 minutes ago, Powerball said: Good sign for the slight risk (or maybe even enhanced risk?) area expanding into DFW... Good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Woah wait a 10% sigtor countour in the latest outlook just barely northeast of here EDIT: We're in or close to being in all sig severe hazards here in the Metroplex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 That escalated quickly... 10% hatched TOR up for extreme NE TX and SE OK 30% hatched hail says hello too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Caught this, but it's not updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 HE SECOND AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TO SURFACE FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX BEFORE SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST OK. LARGE BUOYANCY GIVEN THE VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS, SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONSE THIS EVENING RENDERING UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW LONG DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE MAINTAINED. GIVEN RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE LARGE MLCAPE, THERE IS CONCERN FOR AT LEAST CONDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTH TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK. IF UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS TOO QUICKLY, THIS MAY NOT BE REALIZED, BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE, UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING RENDERING A PREDOMINANT SEVERE WIND THREAT SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 1 minute ago, TexMexWx said: Woah wait a 10% sigtor countour in the latest outlook just barely northeast of here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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