Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Remember when some said Saturday afternoon would be fine, what a disaster weekend

I thought so too up until 3 days ago but yeah, that ship sailed soon after.

I think this is comically devastating to Mem day weekend aspirations ... it starts raining at 4-6 pm Friday... clears abruptly and turns rather pleasant on Tuesday morning around 12 z

Perfectly cookie cutter destruction and insult - haha

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey Wiz ... I think Thursday might be the next convection headline -

The GFS and Euro ( in a remarkable twist ..>) agree on a D5 chart, features a vestigial S/W passing through that day, with a wind max similarly moving astride N of the region, with a small 565 thickness bulge propagating/warm frontal wedge possibly poking in. That day has that look to me of that classic presage 12z elevated convective grumbling that moves off with haze skies to 80/65,  with interesting shearing mechanics in place ... Again, what's up with weak lapse rates this year?  But having the right entrance/exit jet relay passed with a c-front out there PA/NY is prooooobably not a bad general layout...

Both guidance say we roll from that into the first more convincing heat wave... I mean BTV-BOS-LGA-ALB and points in-between < 900 els 91-94 Sat-Mon?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Wiz ... I think Thursday might be the next convection headline -

The GFS and Euro ( in a remarkable twist ..>) agree on a D5 chart, features a vestigial S/W passing through that day, with a wind max similarly moving astride N of the region, with a small 565 thickness bulge propagating/warm frontal wedge possibly poking in. That day has that look to me of that classic presage 12z elevated convective grumbling that moves off with haze skies to 80/65,  with interesting shearing mechanics in place ... Again, what's up with weak lapse rates this year?  But having the right entrance/exit jet relay passed with a c-front out there PA/NY is prooooobably not a bad general layout...

Both guidance say we roll from that into the first more convincing heat wave... I mean BTV-BOS-LGA-ALB and points in-between < 900 els 91-94 Sat-Mon?

Certainly does look a bit intriguing around that time for something...certainly not outbreak worthy but definitely some room for localized severe. Pretty decent speed max/shortwave trough moving through. Moisture return going to be key. I'm still liking the 10-13 period for something too

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Wiz ... I think Thursday might be the next convection headline -

The GFS and Euro ( in a remarkable twist ..>) agree on a D5 chart, features a vestigial S/W passing through that day, with a wind max similarly moving astride N of the region, with a small 565 thickness bulge propagating/warm frontal wedge possibly poking in. That day has that look to me of that classic presage 12z elevated convective grumbling that moves off with haze skies to 80/65,  with interesting shearing mechanics in place ... Again, what's up with weak lapse rates this year?  But having the right entrance/exit jet relay passed with a c-front out there PA/NY is prooooobably not a bad general layout...

Both guidance say we roll from that into the first more convincing heat wave... I mean BTV-BOS-LGA-ALB and points in-between < 900 els 91-94 Sat-Mon?

We are on the cusp of a no heat / dew period. While some folks inexplicably wear jeans this weekend in late May 

  • Confused 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Next weekend looks pretty dam warm tho 

There has to be a high end severe threat in the northern Plains with that pattern...hell maybe some big potential across like MT or WY which I don't think is very common? I think June is going to have some surprises...by surprises I mean we aren't going to see an established pattern...it will be rather chaotic...hopefully that leads to a big severe chance. I think the upper-Midwest may get slammed in that department 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks like a furnace. We’ll have to see if it keeps showing that as we get closer. 

Yeah I think it’s got hemispheric footing. That’s no testament to amplitude ... but the tellies and post ENSO may favor +AAM leading str ridging. GOM development too

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I think it’s got hemispheric footing. That’s no testament to amplitude ... but the tallies and post ENSO may favor -AAM leading str ridging/GOM development

The question is...how long does it last? It's a very interesting pattern moving into next weekend (globally) and with a -AAM state combined with several other factors, looks like there would be wave breaking across the western Atlantic...or you would at least expect this to occur somewhere. This could promote trough potential in the east or at least some BDCF potential. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The question is...how long does it last? It's a very interesting pattern moving into next weekend (globally) and with a -AAM state combined with several other factors, looks like there would be wave breaking across the western Atlantic...or you would at least expect this to occur somewhere. This could promote trough potential in the east or at least some BDCF potential. 

https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3600

Echoes much about everything I’ve been talking about ...even directly mentions the Hadley Cell expansion in there ...the speeding up of the hemisphere - it’s all proven right here btw 

anyway +AAM .. - was a typo.

what I was getting at is that zonal fast flows tend to proceed the genesis of subtropical ridging. Contrast north-south meridional flow the a.m. is neg and that proceeds of +PNA/PNAP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/22/2021 at 10:52 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

It looks like 70’s and sun Saturday. Partly /mostly cloudy Sunday with maybe a shower with warm Front passage and a severe risk Monday in warm sector. Not sure where the cloudy cold rainy look was derived unless he was using op GFS.The Ens don’t look like that.  The other thing that could happen is the high is so strong it suppresses everything SW and we end up three nice days 

Nailed it!

  • Like 2
  • Haha 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/23/2021 at 8:38 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

The theme continued overnight of suppressing most of rains next weekend down over the mid Atlantic. Maybe NYC SW. Should that hold and continue we may be able to have at least a parry sunny, warm weekend with 70’s under strong May sunshine . It’s crazy how the same suppression pattern keeps happening really since early winter 

 

record.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...