weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 The NAM actually has a triple point brief spinner potential across NE MA Monday. LCL's may be like 600-700m 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Agreed and that was a great call...this has definitely moved away from a cyclogenesis aspect (for tonight)...which probably does favor the idea of a region wide soaker b/c the drivers behind the rain are now different. Starting to get quite intrigued with Sunday night/Monday though...you could argue that's an even stronger signal for torrential rain...screaming southerly flow to the tropopause with LP just to our West. Mm ...no, not 'screaming' (2nd bold). Getting a bit excited ? This is really a 'weak setup' .. .One that is in a sense getting lucky that there aren't butterflies flapping wings to interfere. Those are 30 ...maybe 40 kt streamline geostrophic flows coming around the eastern side of a filling trough at levels ... But yeah tonight ... unusual polar pressure wall uprights the 700 mb flow over the surface front to maximize isentropic lift rains. They can gush... I don't have a problem with emerald greening the lawns ... but after that surge peels away tomorrow ... Does the vestigial frontal washout like the ICON... Or, does it surge N with the extremeness of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm ...no, not 'screaming' (2nd bold). Getting a bit excited ? This is really a 'weak setup' .. .One that is in a sense getting lucky that there aren't butterflies flapping wings to interfere. Those are 30 ...maybe 40 kt streamline geostrophic flows coming around the eastern side of a filling trough at levels ... maybe screaming was a bit much but it's still a pretty strong flow for the time of year...30-40 knots in the lower-levels with 60-70 knots in the mid-levels...I guess more appropriate term would be deep southerly flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: maybe screaming was a bit much but it's still a pretty strong flow for the time of year...30-40 knots in the lower-levels with 60-70 knots in the mid-levels...I guess more appropriate term would be deep southerly flow what ? where are you seeing that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Beer? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: what ? where are you seeing that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: oh, okay ...I was implicitly clear all morning and going back to the summer of 2017 that I don't use the GFS - lol- Do you program these sounding tools with the Euro parameters ? I'm curious what those look like. The Synoptic charts at Pivotal are 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb sigma, between 60 and 72 hours..and paltry at 700 mb. That's actually an interesting model fight there. I mean yeah ... 70 kts is substantially more conservation of mass argument forcing ...where 45 kts in the Euro is probably below the atmosphere threshold ... No wonder - This is an experimental op! We should see how this trough verifies because... The Euro is shallower with the trough depth by 60 hours ..by 6 to 10 dm, and GFS being deeper likely atones for it having to accommodate that depth with fast mlv winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Interesting... the NAM is also several DM deeper than the Euro with the trough at the end of the weekend, too God are we nerds - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh, okay ...I was implicitly clear all morning and going back to the summer of 2017 that I don't use the GFS - lol- Do you program these sounding tools with the Euro parameters ? I'm curious what those look like. The Synoptic charts at Pivotal are 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb sigma, between 60 and 72 hours..and paltry at 700 mb. That's actually an interesting model fight there. I mean yeah ... 70 kts is substantially more conservation of mass argument forcing ...where 45 kts in the Euro is probably below the atmosphere threshold ... No wonder - This is an experimental op! We should see how this trough verifies because... The Euro is shallower with the trough depth by 60 hours ..by 6 to 10 dm, and GFS being deeper likely atones for it having to accommodate that depth with fast mlv winds That would be a really awesome idea. Actually I think if you subscribe on Pivotal can't you get euro soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: That would be a really awesome idea. Actually I think if you subscribe on Pivotal can't you get euro soundings? Christ I dunno - ... I my nerdliness only goes so deep lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Reading severe talk in this subforum really reminds me of reading snow and cold talk in the SE subforum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 52F. wth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: NAM with widespread 3-5"+ lol. Probably will be some localized flooding around here given how hard and dry everything is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm ...no, not 'screaming' (2nd bold). Getting a bit excited ? This is really a 'weak setup' .. .One that is in a sense getting lucky that there aren't butterflies flapping wings to interfere. Those are 30 ...maybe 40 kt streamline geostrophic flows coming around the eastern side of a filling trough at levels ... But yeah tonight ... unusual polar pressure wall uprights the 700 mb flow over the surface front to maximize isentropic lift rains. They can gush... I don't have a problem with emerald greening the lawns ... but after that surge peels away tomorrow ... Does the vestigial frontal washout like the ICON... Or, does it surge N with the extremeness of the NAM. I'd bet after tonight's event many areas are just overcast and cool rest of weekend with some light rain showers here and there....just a hunch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Probably will be some localized flooding around here given how hard and dry everything is. Unless it's in the sun all day, the soil isn't that bad at all. At least in my area. We had .27" the other day. Any flooding would be more from heavy rain in a short period. There won't be river issues and things like that though unless you get 5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Was super stoked for a game under the lights Memorial day weekend when our little league schedule came out back in April...... ugh. We are hearty and are still playing though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'd bet after tonight's event many areas are just overcast and cool rest of weekend with some light rain showers here and there....just a hunch yeah...sort of thinking that too .. but... these models don't put out 'impossible' solutions, either. I mean if they did, they wouldn't be modeling weather ..they just be a waste of electronics. heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 ORH might not hit 50F between tomorrow morning and Monday morning. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH might not hit 50F between tomorrow morning and Monday morning. perfect weather to go get the Christmas tree.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH might not hit 50F between tomorrow morning and Monday morning. I'm glad we had a warm March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 50/25 right now in the valley. Ha. October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'm glad we had a warm March. Honestly hard to complain after the past 2 weeks of warm weather...we've been pretty lucky for a lot of spring actually, but it sucks that this is happening on Memorial Day weekend. Even Monday looks awful too...though maybe we hit 55F instead of 47F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 50/25 right now in the valley. Ha. October. Not any better here really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Honestly hard to complain after the past 2 weeks of warm weather...we've been pretty lucky for a lot of spring actually, but it sucks that this is happening on Memorial Day weekend. Even Monday looks awful too...though maybe we hit 55F instead of 47F. Yeah the timing sucks. Just absolutely sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 If this thing cuts west of us it turns warm and humid Sunday night and Monday . Monday is looking pretty decent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Probably won't cut west and wedges until fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Probably won't cut west and wedges until fropa. Yeah I don't see this warm sectoring us with a high northeast of ME. NAM tries but I'll bet against that unless we see a stronger neg tilt/vorticity to force it inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 I still have a gut feeling this does not end up quite like is being modeled. Whether that means less rains farther NW or warmer temps Sunday or something who knows. But something just seems off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Stein 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Stein That guy is insufferable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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