dendrite Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 28 minutes ago, kdxken said: Damn straight! nice Hearthstone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 6z euro gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: 6z euro gone wild In what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: In what way? QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: QPF Suppressed up here still or do we get thrown a little bone tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Suppressed up here still or do we get thrown a little bone tonight? 0.25-0.50 from Gene to CON tonight it looks like then the rest in the second wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 I’m still not sold on a massive soaking that far north tonight but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Decent model agreement on at least 2” of rain here through Monday... some models double that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 Still loving the June 10-12 or June 10-13 period for severe weather here...like an actual really good setup. Going to Chicago on a train trip 17-20...hopefully a derecho will blow through there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 The euro may not be spelling it out yet but you don’t get broad 3”-6” qpf without a tropical connection. That’s the signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: QPF NAM for the win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Still loving the June 10-12 or June 10-13 period for severe weather here...like an actual really good setup. Going to Chicago on a train trip 17-20...hopefully a derecho will blow through there Everyone is talking about the cold rainy MDW in the MAY discussion thread and you just can’t help yourself with d15-20 severe potential in June. Triple buns for you: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 My take: Some time late Saturday night the “warm” front will press northwest of southeast coast as the SE ridge builds and that will set the stage for round two. I say “warm” because it’s the difference of 60’s and low 70’s with dews vs 40’s and low 50’s and dewless...Not warm but relatively...yes... That will set the stage for the tropical —like deluge Sunday pm . Compact Quick hitter, and Monday looks good. 70’s, sunny and dry for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Everyone is talking about the cold rainy MDW in the MAY discussion thread and you just can’t help yourself with d15-20 severe potential in June. Triple buns for you: I already talked enough about the rain threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: My take: Some time late Saturday night the “warm” front will press northwest of southeast coast as the SE ridge builds and that will set the stage for round two. I say “warm” because it’s the difference of 60’s and low 70’s with dews vs 40’s and low 50’s and dewless...Not warm but relatively...yes... That will set the stage for the tropical —like deluge Sunday pm . Compact Quick hitter, and Monday looks good. 70’s, sunny and dry for most. Could be some +RA on the north side of that theta-e gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 Actually could probably see some thunderstorms across SE RI and far SE MA on Sunday. Pretty steep lapse rates with that ulvl low that passes overhead and decent elevated CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Still 39 here. Pretty impressive for 10 AM on this date I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Still 39 here. Pretty impressive for 10 AM on this date I think. Record For BML for the date since the ASOS began is 27° in 97. I’ll have to look up the data for that date. But yeah, near record lows with rad cooling and then clouds streaming in around daybreak is a good recipe for a relatively cold morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 NAM going all out soaker into VT and NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Actually could probably see some thunderstorms across SE RI and far SE MA on Sunday. Pretty steep lapse rates with that ulvl low that passes overhead and decent elevated CAPE Make a spinner for Jimmy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: This seems like still some tricks up it’s sleeves . Could end up fairly different than straight model runs Sorry I'm late to the ball-game ...haven't seen much since yesterday until just this last hour. It looks like the Euro's 12z to 00z trend is trying to edge the "second wave" (Sunday/Mon) farther E in time but ... the American models are hinting ...this whole synopsis is slowly devolving away from cyclogenesis, to more of an active overrunning soupy warm front. The GFS still thinks it's the blizzard of '78 regardless .. I've seen these countless times... The cold front that came trough yesterday does have a minoring lead wave along tonight... tho vastly over wrought in recent NAM solutions... But then that smears off and heights abandon and fill on either side, and leave the surface trough as more of a theta-e leading edge and a DP surge that moves back N with retrograding vestigial frontal pressure trough... It could actually be ( warm and muggy relatively speaking...) Sunday evening, though wet as hell. ..then the whole thing just sort of disappears late Monday... and then the rest of next week looks like 78/73 murk with mold problems ... great. SIgnificant heat trying to set up in the extended... we'll see on that. But the ..."unusual aspects" of this weekends over-arcing synoptic evolution means that there is bit higher uncertainty involved. Maybe one can get lucky. Otherwise, I think this is not an outdoor weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Make a spinner for Jimmy. Berg I liked your comparison to Feb 13 but in in May/wet with this. Big Precip into CT NAM pegged that first too in 13, and then other modeling caught on. Similar with this it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 This is some pretty hefty frontogenesis across the state. 60+ knot LLJ too coming off the ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Miller state park in the Am ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is some pretty hefty frontogenesis across the state. 60+ knot LLJ too coming off the ATL Yeah ... 'frontogenesis' is right - as in, the temperature gradient along an actual warm front. The more I look at this...it appears like the "fuzzier" physics of mid range modeling were 'miss-interpreting' the whole weekend as a slow moving coastal/Nor'easter. But as we are getting into the short range on this thing ...it's devolving away from that to more of lead warm frontal wave tonight, followed by a murk day tomorrow afternoon in wait as the whole vestigial baroclinic axis retrogrades back N as a warm front. I think "Pope" poster ...like 'jenet' can't recall his handle ...here it is, jbenedet, mentioned this yesterday, credit to him, but I agreed at the time: heights are trying to bulge WAR-like back west toward the EC.. You can actually see this in the D4-10 Euro ...in the sense that it's trend over the last few cycles is to raise height everywhere over the east coast ...and in order to get there...the support for that sort of cyclogen is washing out .. OR, just notice the mid level/500 mb trough circumvallate is filling. In fact, by 60 hours, the 00z oper. Euro is 576 dm in a state of rapid filling...and the GFS is still trying to fester a 568 dm hole with that thing. I've been wailing about the GFS depth bias for months... strikes me suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sorry I'm late to the ball-game ...haven't seen much since yesterday until just this last hour. It looks like the Euro's 12z to 00z trend is trying to edge the "second wave" (Sunday/Mon) farther E in time but ... the American models are hinting ...this whole synopsis is slowly devolving away from cyclogenesis, to more of an active overrunning soupy warm front. The GFS still thinks it's the blizzard of '78 regardless .. I've seen these countless times... The cold front that came trough yesterday does have a minoring lead wave along tonight... tho vastly over wrought in recent NAM solutions... But then that smears off and heights abandon and fill on either side, and leave the surface trough as more of a theta-e leading edge and a DP surge that moves back N with retrograding vestigial frontal pressure trough... It could actually be ( warm and muggy relatively speaking...) Sunday evening, though wet as hell. ..then the whole thing just sort of disappears late Monday... and then the rest of next week looks like 78/73 murk with mold problems ... great. SIgnificant heat trying to set up in the extended... we'll see on that. But the ..."unusual aspects" of this weekends over-arcing synoptic evolution means that there is bit higher uncertainty involved. Maybe one can get lucky. Otherwise, I think this is not an outdoor weekend. Days and days of dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ... 'frontogenesis' is right - as in, the temperature gradient along an actual warm front. The more I look at this...it appears like the "fuzzier" physics of mid range modeling were 'miss-interpreting' the whole weekend as a slow moving coastal/Nor'easter. But as we are getting into the short range on this thing ...it's devolving away from that to more of lead warm frontal wave tonight, followed by a murk day tomorrow afternoon in wait as the whole vestigial baroclinic axis retrogrades back N as a warm front. I think "Pope" poster ...like 'jenet' can't recall his handle ...here it is, jbenedet, mentioned this yesterday, credit to him, but I agreed at the time: heights are trying to bulge WAR-like back west toward the EC.. You can actually see this in the D4-10 Euro ...in the sense that it's trend over the last few cycles is to raise height everywhere over the east coast ...and in order to get there...the support for that sort of cyclogen is washing out .. No his first name ain’t Janet .. it’s Pope.. Miss Pope if you nasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ... 'frontogenesis' is right - as in, the temperature gradient along an actual warm front. The more I look at this...it appears like the "fuzzier" physics of mid range was - excuse the anthropomorphism - miss-interpreting the whole weekend as a slow moving coastal/Nor'easter. But as we are getting into the short range on this thing ...it's devolving away from that to more of lead warm frontal wave tonight, followed by a murk day tomorrow afternoon in wait as the whole vestigial baroclinic axis retrogrades back N as a warm front. I think "Pope" poster ...like 'jenet' can't recall his handle ...mentioned this yesterday, credit to him, but I agreed with him at the time. You can actually see this in the D4-10 Euro ...in the sense that it's trend over the last few cycles is to raise height everywhere over the east coast ...and in order to get there...the support for that sort of cyclogen is washing out .. Agreed and that was a great call...this has definitely moved away from a cyclogenesis aspect (for tonight)...which probably does favor the idea of a region wide soaker b/c the drivers behind the rain are now different. Starting to get quite intrigued with Sunday night/Monday though...you could argue that's an even stronger signal for torrential rain...screaming southerly flow to the tropopause with LP just to our West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 NAM with widespread 3-5"+ lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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