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May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Drizzle, lot of low level moisture left.  Could see the elevations/east slopes with mist low clouds tickling the treetops.

Yeah ...I think far NW zones could see some breaks but even there it's iffy - that's going to have a ton of moisture trapped just beneath the 800 mb level ...that level is hugely warm aloft compared to a weird 900 mb cold slab that's being saturated with an E jet feeding ... even if we somehow evade the lift thrust after Saturday morning... I'm not sure we break -

Course, this is all based upon what we are seeing in the runs now.

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...I think far NW zones could see some breaks but even there it's iffy - that's going to have a ton of moisture trapped just beneath the 800 mb level ...that level is hugely warm aloft compared to a weird 900 mb cold slab that's being saturated with an E jet feeding ... even if we somehow evade the lift thrust after Saturday morning... I'm not sure we break -

Course, this is all based upon what we are seeing in the runs now.

Yup that’s what I was seeing.  Is it what some want?  No, but if we want to discuss weather over wants, there’s very high RH at 925-850mb (basically saturated there) and drilling NE/E flow off the Atlantic... everyone knows what those progs lead to for sensible weather.

SFC RH 2pm Saturday (shown) still hanging ~90%, higher pockets east slopes S.Greens, Catskills... but I think you could put that higher shading east slopes ORH Hills too. Can see a little/slight downslope drying into CT on that NE flow, so maybe Kev lucks out.

5901E16C-593E-43FC-B348-78F34B2F1564.thumb.png.f21b9ec8b630ce954652d1ba359f951f.png

B2534D13-FE71-456D-B3C3-5258F2D74285.thumb.png.01c9d005459bcfae7b69732ffcf91def.png

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yup that’s what I was seeing.  Is it what some want?  No, but if we want to discuss weather over wants, there’s very high RH at 925mb (basically saturated there) and drilling NE/E flow off the Atlantic... everyone knows what those progs lead to for sensible weather.

SFC RH 2pm Saturday still hanging ~90%, higher pockets east slopes S.Greens, Catskills... but I think you could put that higher shading east slopes ORH Hills too. Can see a little slight downslope drying into CT on that NE flow, so maybe Kev lucks out.

5901E16C-593E-43FC-B348-78F34B2F1564.thumb.png.f21b9ec8b630ce954652d1ba359f951f.png

B2534D13-FE71-456D-B3C3-5258F2D74285.thumb.png.01c9d005459bcfae7b69732ffcf91def.png

Well we know Kevin downslopes on NE winds.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...I think far NW zones could see some breaks but even there it's iffy - that's going to have a ton of moisture trapped just beneath the 800 mb level ...that level is hugely warm aloft compared to a weird 900 mb cold slab that's being saturated with an E jet feeding ... even if we somehow evade the lift thrust after Saturday morning... I'm not sure we break -

Course, this is all based upon what we are seeing in the runs now.

This seems like still some tricks up it’s sleeves . Could end up fairly different than straight model runs 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Alternate view from my barn I don’t post here much. It’s hard to find a bad view from my backyard. :)  

CFA082AB-BBF2-42EF-B197-38F8A5B049C3.thumb.jpeg.93506ef6bf6cf202e13e25f6196f904b.jpeg

That’s Mt Moriah I believe.

 

That’s a sweet view. Nice change of pace from the head-on in-your-face view of the presidentials (as amazing as that view is)...this view is more distant but still very nice. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a sweet view. Nice change of pace from the head-on in-your-face view of the presidentials (as amazing as that view is)...this view is more distant but still very nice. 

Yeah, when the sun is going down that ridge is often brightly lit up, creating some really spectacular scenes, especially when there are some high clouds around too. 

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Stein :

Even though we had a very dry (two weeks+) middle of May, with this weekend's rain we will end up very close to an average spring in terms of moisture. Intense May sunshine w/dry breezes, warmer than average temps, pollen peaking made it seem worse.

 

We tried to tell him.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Still some model disagreements where heaviest rain is, but a general soaking perhaps even up to at least central New England by Monday. 

Yeah part one may be suppression depression up here...maybe some fringe -RA. Getting some sprinkles now...I assume a little finger of fronto? Haven't looked.

Part deux is the basket where I've put my eggs. We'll see. 2" is a little excessive for my basement so I'll gladly take a little here and a little there.

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1 hour ago, BrianW said:

I was just looking at my solar panel data. 18 straight days of pretty much full sun here. The last 3 months have been really sunny with record solar production as well.

 

Screenshot_20210528-061058_mySolarEdge.jpg

March was the sunniest for any month in my 23 years here, followed by the 5th consecutive April with BN sun for that month.  May will finish slightly AN for sun.  March precip was 43% of average, April 103% and unless we get more than 0.38" over the weekend this will be the driest May of 24 here.  Even May 1998, with records for just the final 15 days (we moved here mid-month), is a half inch ahead of 2021.

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