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May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
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On 5/24/2021 at 12:44 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

What was the one a few weeks ago that the GFS showed a big coastal and the Euro had dry and the Euro crushed it? Reminds me of that . Might have been 2-3 weeks ago 

Nice job by the euro

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On 5/24/2021 at 7:35 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

With little to none thru the weekend..Wednesday storms are best threat and even that is iffy . GFS all alone on coastal so that’s tossed. Euro and Canadian are dry the whole weekend. Maybe couple showers Friday evening / night 

It may never rain again. 

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On the fence for the weekend with this ...

It's an unusual look. It's doing this at the ceiling of the heights where it can.  One contour greater and your in a positive anomaly in the overall larger synoptic scope; yet that one contour ( all of 6 dm worth!) sagging through the eastern Lakes, gets caught in amber, and as its paltry 30 knt circumvallate of mid level flow "rages" on ...that some how has enough mechanical forcing to impose all that inclement sensible dread ...

So yeah, not physically impossible.  Just rare.  It's interesting in that regard if people let it - heh...  good luck when it comes to a coveted 3-day weekend getting stolen - I know...

I just think that even though this is happening at the top of the height layout ... the baroclinicity is rather large underneath with that thickness gradient between midriff Ontario and the lower OV.  The top heavy pressure pattern with a high north's underbelly of long fetched easterly flow will pool mid level theta-e to then get folded back over the top of that lower level baroclinic wedge ( west east ambient polar front) ... blah blah.  Think of it as maximizing through the geometry of the set up, more so than fluid mechanical jet potency ... then the whole thing festers....  It's dealing with a scenario that is 'just enough' to get the stolen weekend done. 

But...that also requires knowing it is fragile ... It wouldn't take much to squish that E-S and surprise salvage - it just seems the models don't want to ever really do that.  Ha ha. 

That whirl on satellite up stream looks pretty real to me this morning regardless -

I was kind of hoping we could bring back that NAM solution that put down 2.4" along the pike - but was fair by Saturday night.  That run seemed to salvage Sunday with 64 partly sunny...before that weird unlikely 2nd low came up the coast.  ...But if that had happened?  How ironic that all this stupid 'stein' vernacular kept getting bandied annoyingly and unrelentingly ...and we'd end up with a May positive anomaly in rain.  

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27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

New NAM has a low right into NYC Sunday-so maybe Monday will be the salvage day which is good for parades and BBQ's.  Inches of rain for many here b/w Friday night and Sunday night

namconus_apcpn_neus_28.png

The onshore flow could still linger into Monday especially across eastern areas. 

Never bought into Memorial day weekend as being the unofficial start of summer. Beaches are cold, temps could still be chilly...way too many variables.

To me July 4th weekend is the true start to summer. 

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The onshore flow could still linger into Monday especially across eastern areas. 

Never bought into Memorial day weekend as being the unofficial start of summer. Beaches are cold, temps could still be chilly...way too many variables.

To me July 4th weekend is the true start to summer. 

Agreed I'd never spend money on a beach house in the northeast this time of year.  Have to get to at least 6/20 for best weather and like you said 7/4....ocean's warm by then too.

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yup, was chatting with DIT about that upper level divergence last night. Great synoptic set-ups usually win out over Stein-bitten calls.

Bingo!

May end up with some poor drainage flooding in spots. If there was any convection involved in this someone could probably pull of 3-4''

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18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agreed I'd never spend money on a beach house in the northeast this time of year.  Have to get to at least 6/20 for best weather and like you said 7/4....ocean's warm by then too.

It’s like booking a ski vacation anywhere in NNE for Christmas week. 

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I agree with Tip about how unique the setup is. I'm still favoring heaviest stuff a little closer to the low level forcing, so not sure it's as widespread as the NAM shows. However, there is a strong LLJ with good WAA helping to keep the precip shield more widespread than what we typically see this time of year. Obviously the good venting aloft too.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

again... the rain Friday and Saturday appears still on target and has for the last 2 ... 3 days worth of modeling.

That 2nd wave creeping the coast Sun/Monday looks iffy to me and I don't trust the NAM there at all -

RGEM wants nothing to do with it...

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47 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow...DIT’s dry weekend going down in flames maybe?? 

The rain will come in handy for the Celtics when they attempt to put out the fire from their smoldering wreck of a season....

Image result for brad stevens memesI can't believe I turned down the Indiana coaching job.......

See the source imageWhy is everyone so upset?  We've lost in the conference  finals 3 out of the last 5 years.....

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