May 2021 Discussion

[dendrite]

85.0 already

[Brian5671]

44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Congrats all on Memorial Day Weekend Saturday.

5am Temps:

5pm... still rotting upper 30s to upper 40s region wide.  That’d be special if it’s 41F at ORH at 5pm on Memorial Day Weekend.

that's got to be record low maximums for some areas?

[weathafella]

Over on banter thread is the awful sad news of James’s passing..

 

 

[powderfreak]

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

85.0 already

85-86F over this way in the valley... 81F up at work.  It feels very warm. 

[Lava Rock]

44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's got to be record low maximums for some areas?

that's disgusting. I hope not. It's almost june ffs

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ... regardless of convection we got us a scorcher out there today.

As was warned ... if perhaps only unto myself heh, this is the first time we've intermingled this kind of theta-e density with the sort of temperatures we got going on out there.  The lack of acclimation to this point this season is making that an arresting experience walking out there.   Ooph     ...just sort of stand there looking around bewildered.

92 at several homes stations around town with DPs between NWS ASOS and here 62 to 65 scattered about ...  The HI is what it is but it's plenty and it' only 1pm

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... regardless of convection we got us a scorcher out there today.

As was warned ... if perhaps only unto myself heh, this is the first time we've intermingled this kind of theta-e density with the sort of temperatures we got going on out there.  The lack of acclimation to this point this season is making that an arresting experience walking out there.   Ooph     ...just sort of stand there looking around bewildered.

92 at several homes stations around town with DPs between NWS ASOS and here 62 to 65 scattered about ...  The HI is what it is but it's plenty and it' only 1pm

What are your thoughts on sensible Wx outcomes for the holiday weekend?

[dendrite]

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What are your thoughts on sensible Wx outcomes for the holiday weekend?

I wanna see the Euro to be blunt - ... short answer? I'm thinking the rains/wet may be Friday night into Saturday morning, with option to sell on Sunday/Monday dreariness, because that could still end up okay, pending

- I think the 12z Euro is inside of 4.5 days for that mid weekend period ... and

I'm not completey sold on a punt ... I think these models look over-wrought with development and maintaining baroclinic activity/cyclongen given to the paltry mechanics aloft - the flow around that weakly closing mid level activity is all of 30 kts most quadrants and that surface evolution looks disproportionately forced - the Euro was guilty of it too at 00z but it's 12z yesterday seemed a better fit ... oy

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...I typically credit the home stations of Wunder's network 2 pts for rube calibration - hahaha...

Still, the acceleration isn't finished... Seems the "bust max" should be 93 if we get an 850 mb lapse ceiling - not sure tho... Actually, shit - forgot to check the machine numbers...ah well

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wanna see the Euro to be blunt - ... short answer? I'm thinking the rains/wet may be Friday night into Saturday morning, with option to sell on Sun because that could still end up okay, pending

- I think the 12z Euro is inside of 4.5 days for that mid weekend period ... and

I'm not completey sold on a punt ... I think these models look over-wrought with development and maintaining baroclinic activity/cyclongen given to the paltry mechanics aloft - the flow around that weakly closing mid level activity is all of 30 kts most quadrants and that surface evolution loos disproportionately forced - the Euro was guilty of it too at 00z but it's 12z yesterday seemed a better fit ... oy

 

Can kind of get the sense we salvage a fairly decent Saturday afternoon with some sun and if lucky Sunday too. Probably want to be as far west as possible to salvage a dry Monday unless that’s not real on 00z

[Lava Rock]

89.4F. Not too sticky. DP 59.7. Hoping we get some something from the convection today ,otherwise Fri is a whiff, then more high and dry.

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can kind of get the sense we salvage a fairly decent Saturday afternoon with some sun and if lucky Sunday too. Probably want to be as far west as possible to salvage a dry Monday unless that’s not real on 00z

Yeah ..that's more than less how I lean as of this moment ...  I don't have any horses in the race here though so if it butt-bangs the weekend pan-dimensional  fuggit. 

- I think I remember that once happening in my whole life, where all three days were miserable... -

 

[powderfreak]

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can kind of get the sense we salvage a fairly decent Saturday afternoon with some sun and if lucky Sunday too. Probably want to be as far west as possible to salvage a dry Monday unless that’s not real on 00z

The GFS was much better than NAM on Saturday it seemed.  50s to 60F instead of 40s.  GGEM looked drying out but still 40s/50s.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ..that's more than less how I lean as of this moment ...  I don't have any horses in the race here though so if it butt-bangs the weekend pan-dimensional  fuggit. 

- I think I remember that once happening in my whole life, where all three days were miserable... -

 

2013 

[Typhoon Tip]

What was mem weekend, 2005 like ?

I really don't recall...  But that was the year of the infamous May cried out in terror ... with 2.5 week's worth of consecutive 42 F days with 3 nor easters in between drizzle.   0 sun, ever.  lol

anyway, seems that's a candidate for a pan-dimensional punt, too

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

that's got to be record low maximums for some areas?

I think Bluewave brought it up in the NY thread, but Saturday has a chance to be colder than Christmas Day in some areas.  That might be a first.

[SJonesWX]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What was mem weekend, 2005 like ?

I really don't recall...  But that was the year of the infamous May cried out in terror ... with 2.5 week's worth of consecutive 42 F days with 3 nor easters in between drizzle.   0 sun, ever.  lol

anyway, seems that's a candidate for a pan-dimensional punt, too

i remember 40's & 50's and drizzle the entire weekend

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

8 years ago yesterday. Never forget. 

Reminds me of back in the mid-00's  when we were living in Maine full-time.  We took our daughter to the Memorial Day parade in Bath and had grauple coming down.  Not bad for the coast.

[Brian5671]

Quote

 

Euro is crappy for SNE all the way back to NYC for late Sunday into all day Monday with rains....only dry period is Sat into Sun....

[Ginx snewx]

Pool open but needs water nice to see those 2 to 3 inch rain totals on UK Euro and GFS

[Damage In Tolland]

Sell

[ORH_wxman]

Dogshit weekend on Euro....maybe we salvage Saturday.

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sell

It was a good summer while it lasted.  Rain is a good thing 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

It was a good summer while it lasted.  Rain is a good thing 

 

It is except it will not end up as currently modeled. Watch as the Messenger shuffles start tomorrow. Always do 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Car thermo hit 96 as I was driving past KFIT.  So I’m guessing they were 93 or so

Torrrrrccchhhhh!!!

[dendrite]

Really wet run for SNE on that euro op…meanwhile Stein takes up residence up here.

[Typhoon Tip]

Why is Sunday bad? 
 

 Coarse product at psu looks fine Sunday morning. 
 

But I’m not worried about this Euro run now that look at this because it’s actually stepped back from how bad it looked at 0Z ...so it’s still got continuity issues. 

I think that weekend still up in the air because the flow is weak - we won’t know until we get it right on top of it. All these features in the atmosphere don’t have a lot of physical presence ... otherwise we would have more agreement more continuity at this range. I mean that is the weakest 500 mb impression of anything ever so where is the Euro getting all this sfc response from. Interesting. 
 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Why is Sunday bad? 
 

 Coarse product at psu looks fine Sunday morning. 
 

But I’m not worried about this Euro run now that look at this because it’s actually stepped back from how bad it looked at 0Z ...so it’s still got continuity issues. 

I think that weekend still up in the air because the flow is weak - we won’t know until we get it right on top of it. All these features in the atmosphere don’t have a lot of physical presence ... otherwise we would have more agreement more continuity at this range. I mean that is the weakest 500 mb impression of anything ever so where is the Euro getting all this sfc response from. Interesting. 
 

It will continue shifting east . Tomorrow at this time Sunday and Monday will look different . 

[Ginx snewx]

 

 

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It is except it will not end up as currently modeled. Watch as the Messenger shuffles start tomorrow. Always do 

Summer its upside down. Really really sucks about Memorial day weekend. Those temps are brutal and to think I shut my propane off this week.