May 2021 Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, TheBudMan said:

Guest appearance in late May by Ray as he preps his 21-22 winter forecast !   Big snow returns 

I'll be around more in the back half of the summer when the tropics heat up.....April-July is utterly useless.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be around more in the back half of the summer when the tropics heat up.....April-July is utterly useless.

At least there is some good baseball being played by the home team to keep us entertained. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

At least there is some good baseball being played by the home team to keep us entertained. 

Now is the time to make a trade...don't wait until July. I know Sale is slated to come back hopefully maybe around or just after the All Star break but I would really like another big arm...whether it be a SP or RP. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Nothing says Memorial Day weekend like -5C 850s.

I think we are actually already in a climate paradigm that is "trying" to snow on June 21 - ...Oh it won't succeed. Lol... But it's tryin'       I bet if it that ever happened...fuggit - call it snow in June, period, it will happen when the ensuing July NASA state of the climate publication bulletins that same June as the 2nd hottest in global history, too.

It has nothing to do with the sun. Nor any current celestial mechanical nuances of Earths orientation with respect to the sun ( orbit eccentricities ). Nor is it volcanism...

It's purely a circulation change, forced as an "emergent" result that is brought about by climate change -  

As the Hadley Cell expansion has carried on insidiously over the last 30 years,  ... people need to get this straight:  it doesn't necessarly mean tall heights.  Although some of that may be identifiable.   Increased thermal residence in the atmosphere can be expressed by velocity of geostrophic wind.  The gradient has increased the westerlies wind velocities. The surplus energy is going into the mechanics of speeding of the atmosphere through that geophysical interplay.  But ... in more expansive discussion, it's really because the polar domain spaces ...albeit warming the most rapidly, have a vast chasm of thermal sink to fill before total integrated gradient relaxes.  When that threshold approached- incidentally - winters express a discerned tendency to have shifted N everywhere ..

The next aspect that won't be understood ... is a concept in wave- mechanics known as 'non' -linearity.  Those/that's when are implied forces getting 'transmitted' from the actions of one location, to another location, without really observing very readily any circuitry between the two points that directly evinces (reveals) the causal relationship. 

There is a non linear tendency for heights to "fold over" western N/A because of the mass- balancing from a fast spring-season Pacific.  Think of it as a standing kind of "invisible" Kelvin Hemholtz wave, where the curl axis is over Quebec ... at times higher lower, left or right across eastern continental mid latitudes.

Snow in May.

Snow in October.

It's happening right under our noses ... These weird cold plumes getting rattled around in that "super-synoptic-scale"  - meaning virtual synopsis that occasionally does physically manifest... - in that eastern N/A region due to faster than normal Pacific mean flow early, and late ...spanning respective seasons.

And in fact, ...counter-intuitively ... the heat in May is also related to that... for subsidiary set of complex synoptic reasons that people will just up and stop reading if I bother waste more life explaining to an empty room. Because said "gestaltic" emergent property of larger scaled behavior is also not fixed in latitude and longitude -  it, in itself, repositions occasionally... such that if it is S, the tuck ends up with SE Atlantic humid/cooler flow into DCA-PHL while the "over top heat" phenomenon/frequency has been consequential...

I mean there's probably all kinds of weirdness from this shit.  Like the sudden increase in commercial airline intercontinental flight-speed records in the last 20 years. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BDL finished +1.8 for Napril.

And May will finish over +1.0 AN

Check your facts before spewing Kooky BS nonsense that no one finds funny 

That screams top 8 warmest spring to you?

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That screams top 8 warmest spring to you?

It’s in the stats where they live 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Deep range hints of an interesting heat signal - ...  way out there... Kind of like the signals is the early neutrino surge in the days before LIGO detects the actual calling card gravity waves from some million light-year away event.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s in the stats where they live 

 

I guess if you factor in the warm March and the high mins we have been experiencing in recent years. But if we look at just departures from daytime highs, it’s not that close. 

[kdxken]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s in the stats where they live 

 

That's Boston dummy.

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I guess if you factor in the warm March and the high mins we have been experiencing in recent years. But if we look at just departures from daytime highs, it’s not that close. 

I'm guessing that (bold) matches the anecdotal consensus of 'bus stop America' too.   I mean ...we've said this over and over again, but nocturnal elevated lows kind of "cheats" warm enthusiasts LOL ... bootlegging the season into contention when no one is looking.

I know just personal account ... it has not seemed very warm - but I am also scientifically aware of weather metrics and parameters, and keep a running tally of oddities ...most Mets and advancing enthusiasts do - nothing new.   But we had 4 days 71 to 76 F afternoons, in a thickness ambience that was below 540 dm in May.

sub 540 dm thickness in May, is not in and of itself that unusual.  Sustaining it for 4 days is, however.   But, what is even MORE unusual ...( and no one's really commenting on, which I find interesting... ), is 75 F at 534 thickness is an exceptionally rare lower troposheric to mid troposphere, coincident metric to observe.  So it's like I'm perhaps bias around the 530s thickness sustained deliveries as a cold metric. But, ...obviously I know it was 75 in February and March, and April ...yet again, which cannot be argued as f-ed up heat so early.

The reason I'm honing these idiosyncrasies, is because it just fits the overall weird spring this has been...  

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm just looking at the individual GEF members at the coarse rendering over at PSU ...

The short version ...I wouldn't be surprised if it Sat/Sun/Mon are all just seasonally cool to mild with partly to mostly sunny days, any more than I would not be surprised if the opposite happens just because this post makes sense

Longer version.. you know - 2/3rds of those 33 members don't even really have any kind of Mem -Day weekend inclement weather even there. Some of them even have a flat ridge where the operational run keeps trying to crinkle the flow into a single, one-contoured power bomb ....   ugh

I think the Euros notion of complete suppression is a trend that may not even be done suppressing ...  - until this 12z comes in nucleating a 974 mb cat-paw nor'easter - heh.. .kidding.

The models have been over selling shit weather in the mid and extended range since last October.  Consummately disturbances are some half the magnitude and impact, having been eroded in signficance until in short term, compared to what they were when they first emerged out of the chaotic ether of longer range model visions.   We came to bank on that -

Not sure that's not doing that here....  I mean there are reasons to argue that it should be weaker and less meaningful - as snarked above, it's weak anyway. What is the GFS (GGEM) for that matter, creating all that QPF bluster out of one contour at 500 mb.  Plus, all models are trying to actually lop over an anticyclonic wave-break pushing toward western Ontario with said weakness underpinned.  The Euro suppression/trend seems a better fit.

 

[dendrite]

BOS has been running warm. 

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm just looking at the individual GEF members at the coarse rendering over at PSU ...

The short version ...I wouldn't be surprised if it Sat/Sun/Mon are all just seasonally cool to mild with partly to mostly sunny days, any more than I would not be surprised if the opposite happens just because this post makes sense

Longer version.. you know - 2/3rds of those 33 members don't even really have any kind of Mem -Day weekend inclement weather even there. Some of them even have a flat ridge where the operational run keeps trying to crinkle the flow into a single, one-contoured power bomb ....   ugh

I think the Euros notion of complete suppression is a trend that may not even be done suppressing ...  - until this 12z comes in nucleating a 974 mb cat-paw nor'easter - heh.. .kidding.

The models have been over selling shit weather in the mid and extended range since last October.  Consummately disturbances are some half the magnitude and impact, having been eroded in signficance until in short term, compared to what they were when they first emerged out of the chaotic ether of longer range model visions.   We came to bank on that -

Not sure that's not doing that here....  I mean there are reasons to argue that it should be weaker and less meaningful - as snarked above, it's weak anyway. What is the GFS (GGEM) for that matter, creating all that QPF bluster out of one contour at 500 mb.  Plus, all models are trying to actually lop over an anticyclonic wave-break pushing toward western Ontario with said weakness underpinned.  The Euro suppression/trend seems a better fit.

 

All signs have pointed to your buddy Stein for days on this . The guy has some kind of special drought power 

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

The PNA at CPC gave me pause this morning... +1 isn't a warm look.

However, the 'tendency' of the operational runs, Euro, GGEM and 06z GFS ... ( some lesser degree, the 00z version of the latter ), are out of phase with that... having a postive rest state SE height footprint throughout the D7-15 range.  And the AO and NAO are trying to hike the index positive, too, which is also competing indicators.

Now... granted, we are sort of losing the PNA credibility as a telecon correction usage turning the page into June. Also, the wave lengths ( r-wave number and identification) do actually appear more nebulous out there...so perhaps the PNA --> PNAP orientation may be a faux assumption.   I you know these things don't just turn off like at neat behaved boundaries in the atmosphere.  They 'smear out' of forcing ...then smear back in during October..etc...  So, you can have correlations still work even in mid summer. It's just matter of how often. blah blah

Anyway, said footprint and the +AO/+NAO hemisphere actually matches said SE height tendencies better.   It could all lean the early gamble toward a warmer June.  I haven't seen the EPS indexes.

 

[dendrite]

GFS finds a way to ruin Sunday in ENE too. Tossed but would be lol. 

[SJonesWX]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

warm in June? wow, that's a hell of a forecast. Ben Noll, whoever that is, is really going out on a limb there.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

BOS has been running warm. 

Yes it has.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes it has.

Torched...normal...hedging warm again

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Deep range hints of an interesting heat signal - ...  way out there... Kind of like the signals is the early neutrino surge in the days before LIGO detects the actual calling card gravity waves from some million light-year away event.

Gravity waves propagate at light speed I believe.

[Torch Tiger]

meanwhile as we discussed a few weeks back, our first decent shot at storms tomorrow!

The main forecast concern is the potential for a few strong to
severe t-storms in the afternoon in the interior. Mid level
shortwave will be moving across Gt Lakes with a pre-frontal trough
moving into SNE in the afternoon which will be a focus for
convection. Decent instability develops in the interior with CAPES
1000-1500 J/kg and increasing wind field results in deep layer shear
30-35 kt supporting storm organization and potential severe weather.
CAMs are showing some broken line segments moving into interior SNE
during afternoon with damaging wind being the main threat. However,
forecast soundings also show decent turning in the lowest 3km in the
CT valley with effective SRH 100-200 m2/s2, aided by backed low
level flow and there is favorable 0-3km CAPE, so can`t rule out an
isolated tornado with any discrete storms. Will continue to monitor
with later forecasts.

[Great Snow 1717]

56 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

warm in June? wow, that's a hell of a forecast. Ben Noll, whoever that is, is really going out on a limb there.

...well since it is going out on a limb day I'm going to say that the peak of summer warmth/heat will be behind us as September approaches....

[Great Snow 1717]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Now is the time to make a trade...don't wait until July. I know Sale is slated to come back hopefully maybe around or just after the All Star break but I would really like another big arm...whether it be a SP or RP. 

I highly doubt Bloom makes that type of trade.......

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Gravity waves propagate at light speed I believe.

Okay -

[weatherwiz]

17 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I highly doubt Bloom makes that type of trade.......

agreed...especially based off his comments (but I always take what GM's say with a grain of salt  )

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

agreed...especially based off his comments (but I always take what GM's say with a grain of salt  )

Not in this case.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not in this case.

 I understand they need to build the farm and getting such a pitcher would just require too many assets. But...maybe he can find an "under the radar" pitcher who he thinks can thrive in Boston and get them on the cheaper side. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

 I understand they need to build the farm and getting such a pitcher would just require too many assets. But...maybe he can find an "under the radar" pitcher who he thinks can thrive in Boston and get them on the cheaper side. 

They are playing good baseball so far, but long way to go.  It doesn’t seem like an “all-in” team where you go full send.  It would have to be really cheap IMO but as Bloom has shown with Tampa and now Richards and Pivetta, he seems ok at sniffing out useable pitching staff.  Add in that Cora seems to have some positive effect at extracting talent too... who knows.

Need to find the pitching version of 2018 Steve Pierce .

[TalcottWx]

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes it has.

I can confirm that since I finally have a low grade wx station

[CoastalWx]

Gfs. Ooof.