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May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

2015 and 2017 weren’t wet?  May/June those years up this way were very wet.

Both years had a pretty wet June and then we Steined. I think both had it earlier in the month. July 2019 was fairly wet, but I remember lots of near misses with convection.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why? Why is that the earth can warm, but can't be wetter? If the earth is warming, its going to be wetter...period. Will there be some regression, probably, but toss climo like you do with temps.

While perhaps true on a local level or in some areas of the world, this isn't entirely true on a overall large-scale.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes it is. Warmer air holds more moisture.

Correct...when looking at it from that aspect it makes sense but there are a ton of other factors to consider. Speaking from a theoretic/fundamental standpoint a warming Earth with a reduced equator-poleward temperature gradient would result in a decreased jet and would result in less conducive environments for cyclogenesis...which could be a big problem for us. Your point, however, would ring very true with tropical systems and holds merit to the notion that we will see more winter storms produce larger snow totals.  

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes it is. Warmer air holds more moisture.

True but it’s not a completely linear relationship, no?  You still need forcing and a way to wring that moisture out.

In the long term you can see it happen with the new 30-year normals when some spots gained like 6” annual water.  But it still can come in cycles.

Being warmer doesn’t mean the precip comes evenly spread either... maybe we end up with more cold season water and less in warm season?  I could see some distribution changes... maybe less frequent precip events but when they do happen they are bigger water makers?

All interesting to consider.

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18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

True but it’s not a completely linear relationship, no?  You still need forcing and a way to wring that moisture out.

In the long term you can see it happen with the new 30-year normals when some spots gained like 6” annual water.  But it still can come in cycles.

Being warmer doesn’t mean the precip comes evenly spread either... maybe we end up with more cold season water and less in warm season?  I could see some distribution changes... maybe less frequent precip events but when they do happen they are bigger water makers?

All interesting to consider.

Yeah there are lots of variables. In general warmer air can hold more water vapor,  but then you need to consider if there are any hemispheric changes to ridging and trough anomalies. Maybe some areas get drier, and some of the typical dry areas get a little wetter. Who knows.

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What a way to kick off The unofficial start of summer!

Friday and Saturday...

Below average temperatures return as winds shift E/NE on Friday and
Saturday. High temps look to hover in the low to mid 60s for most.
Friday will be primarily dry. A few showers may push in around
sunset along  a shortwave and ahead of a potential low pressure
system passing to our south. Saturday may bring more widespread
precipitation to our area but there is deviation between guidance on
exactly how much rain will fall. The ECMWF takes a more conservative
approach to QPF, of 0.1 to 0.3" south of the Mass Pike compared to
the 0.5 to 1.0" of QPF across our entire area suggested by the GFS
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