kdxken Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: High was 73 here just a couple miles inland. Beautiful day. Couple more coming early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Looks like Forky deleted last post so we’ll post again. Stein is really gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Dryness keeping the mosquitoes from going wild right now which is fine by me. Unfortunately, this won't last forever. High of 69 today with the ocean influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: Fire going. Sox on. Same temps now as you had all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 2 hours ago, kdxken said: Don't get your walking shorts in a bundle. If you don't like getting called out for stupid forecasts don't make them. Absolutely Agreed. As soon as somebody starts bumping and starts challenging the BS agenda, and the BS forecasts, he pulls the fradycat card and starts the sissy stuff...just like clockwork. It’s all a foolish game he plays...then when others play back, he starts with the creepy stuff. Good Post Ken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Absolutely Agreed. As soon as somebody starts bumping and starts challenging the BS agenda, and the BS forecasts, he pulls the fradycat card and starts the sissy stuff...just like clockwork. It’s all a foolish game he plays...then when others play back, he starts with the creepy stuff. Good Post Ken. He threatened to call the cops on me like a month or two ago. Lol. I wouldn’t sweat it. trolls gunna troll. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m all for ball busting. Lord knows I do enough of it . But if you look at say his last 100 posts.. how many would you guess are directed at me ? I know.. and Dendy knows . We lock up tight tonight . We all just brush Ginx stuff aside.. we know his deal What's my deal, please go into detail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What's my deal, please go into detail 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Saturday... A very warm/hot day is on tap for much of the region on Saturday. Southwest surface flow coupled with 925T near +22C along with at least partial sunshine should yield afternoon highs near 90 northwest of I-95 Perfect for the graduations. Nothing says fun like sitting in a hot field listening to folks drone on for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Getting some rain showers this morning, but barely enough to wet the whistle. 54° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Still may have a lot of mid to high level clouds tomorrow. That could cap temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Sprinkle here about 7:30. 0.69" for May, 0.18" over the past 2 weeks. Past 7 days averaged 75/39 with each max from 73 to 77. The nicest mid-May stretch I can recall. First cloudy morning for a while and failed to drop below 50 last night. If we get a lot of sun, could be first 80s here given the high launchpad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Stein frontal passage Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Stein frontal passage Sunday. Looks to come through here with 0.10-0.30" during early afternoon.... like perfectly timed to mess up the day. I'll trade you full Stein for any water to interrupt the day outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Looks to come through here with 0.10-0.30" during early afternoon.... like perfectly timed to mess up the day. I'll trade you full Stein for any water to interrupt the day outside. Yeah I suppose we could see some sct stuff, but definitely not widespread. Summer-like weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 What about Saturday - American models ... I think they typically erode around the periphery of ridges - I've ad nauseam explained how the GFS does this systemically to the extent of it becoming an unusable model beyond ~ D3s in general... But, it could be lending to it's having more Saturday QPF in the region ...circa 21z ...? ( So implicitly, I don't trust it - ) This pattern's version of the 'bigger heat day' will in place that day. Then late-ish afternoon the GFS swaths a broken QPF band. I don't even get the feel that is convection on its charts at TT. It is almost as if the model is painting broken strata-form rain passing over the top of near 90 heat ...and through a synoptic ridge bulge that makes that next to impossible as rain type/origin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 THANK YOU COD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This will make the CAPE ALERT thing I created even better. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Sneaky big heat signal next week ...? Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 227 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 Valid 12Z Mon May 24 2021 - 12Z Fri May 28 2021 ...Record heat likely for portions of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic next week... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd The other aspect that I think has a chance to grow as a risk awareness/need is that the transition between that mid week roll-back heat and the flat wave seasonal front there after, that appears to be favorable general severe layout. It's obviously way ...way early for convection deterministic anything. This is purely just recognizing generality. But a 90/70 type air mass with a polar jet running by to the N is precarious.. This weekend throughout next week has been a goodly agreed upon progression of synoptics by the Euro and GGEM cluster ... Easy forecast - relatively speaking... - through D8 or so. We break the present warm anomaly briefly Monday ... but by 18z that day, both models and their ens means have been stalwart indicating the the polar high pressure just up and all but completely loses identity by that hour; in fact, what's left of it regroups S with west wind taking over possibly still during those long sloped sun hours of a late May day ... Could see a late high T at Logan? Those are neat ...you think the high is 69, then the next day out of nowhere you're looking at the data and they snuck a 75 in there whaaa ... Tuesday has 570 dm thickness in an unabated continental warm conveyor moving up over the arc of this flat ridge at early as 12z ... GGEM is a bit stingy but has the general idea... The Euro's +18 C at 850 mb over a laminar SW flow to the surface and even 50% sun will likely see that be the adiabatic temperature ... I wouldn't be surprised if this whole thing starts to move records up the coast.. it wouldn't take but another half inch of parametric spacing on these charts, should the ridge do that and balloon just a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 A cloudy 59F. House down to 66F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Yeah, Sunday, Tues (maybe) + Weds look like summah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 Next week is going to be pretty rollercoaster. Monday looks to be quite cool...especially compared to what we've been dealing with this week and with what looks to transpire Sunday. Tuesday is a bit of a wild card, though I suspect there could be a large west-to-east temperature gradient across the region as that warm front moves through. May even see some convection with the warm front. Wednesday looks like it could be pretty toasty...but lots of factors to consider here; timing of cold front, cloud cover, convective potential...the end of the week...could be quite cool at least across northern New England depending on how far the boundary sags. Won't be fun across parts of the Southeast with wildfire potential this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Killington closes for the season. https://www.wcax.com/2021/05/21/killington-resort-ends-ski-season-may-16/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Next week is going to be pretty rollercoaster. Monday looks to be quite cool...especially compared to what we've been dealing with this week and with what looks to transpire Sunday. Tuesday is a bit of a wild card, though I suspect there could be a large west-to-east temperature gradient across the region as that warm front moves through. May even see some convection with the warm front. Wednesday looks like it could be pretty toasty...but lots of factors to consider here; timing of cold front, cloud cover, convective potential...the end of the week...could be quite cool at least across northern New England depending on how far the boundary sags. Won't be fun across parts of the Southeast with wildfire potential this week. my guess BDL 89 Sun 75 Mon 91 Tue ... I believe that warm sector becomes more coherenty expressing in the guidance as we near on that day ...a diffused boundary whisks through with no inhibition and the models will bite in time and send the temp and DP more than machine guidance suggests at this time. NBM extended products are shirking that potential in my mind... with a rather abrupt turn around and a "soaring" behavior on temp... I could see a cirrus glump- milk sky at 12z ...maybe even a mid level deck showers ... then 10 ... 11 am it's an open sky steam bath - mind you..I'm visualizing that. It may not be 'in' the guidance per se right now... But as the region is just subsumed by that deep layer tropospheric signal in the Euro - I just appears to be the better fit for trend and telecon ( even tho the latter is fading correlation in theory...). The NAO is pulses positive in a heavily concerted manner ... The westerlies may get pulled N of N/A as a 'correction vector' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: my guess BDL 89 Sun 75 Mon 91 Tue ... I believe that warm front becomes more coherenty expressing in the guidance as we near on that day ...with a rather abrupt turn around and a "soaring" behavior on temp... I could see a cirrus glump and milk sky at 12z ...maybe even a mid level deck showers ... then 10 ... 11 am it's an open sky steam bath - mind you..I'm visualizing that. It may not be 'in' the guidance per se right now... But as the region is just subsumed by that deep layer tropospheric signal in the Euro - I just appears to be the better fit for trend and telecon ( even tho the latter is fading correlation in theory...) If we are able to quickly get into sunshine Tuesday I certainly agree. Tuesday could be a late day high too (like a 20-21z high) as we are still increasing 850 temps (assuming we're achieving maximum mixing). This warm front looks like it could be pretty active with an extensive high cloud shield...but also have to keep in mind models often time overdo this aspect, especially across our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 15 mi wide shit streak will bust temps low over the interior/E Probably wasn't too well modeled as it's too discrete... It'll likely disperse but 10 F stolen perhaps ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Looks like BTV didn’t get below 70F on the hourly temps last night. The nocturnal southerly jet in the valley there cranked again. Very Caribbean like weather there with increasing south winds overnight on these warm nights. Dews in the 40s though with very high min, just stays really well mixed all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 I don't get why the NBM is so aggressive with temperatures for Monday across the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't get why the NBM is so aggressive with temperatures for Monday across the Northeast. Lol ... it's because of this maybe ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Lol ... it's because of this maybe ? Is that what the sun looks like over Tolland over the summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 Next Friday night has potential to be rather chilly...maybe down into the 30's in areas that radiate well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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