May 2021 Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s conceivable a place like BDL hits 80 or higher everyday thru day 10 with no measurable rain. Only day it “could” miss 80 is Monday Amazing stretch . 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Man do you live in a tent? Do you let the afternoon sun bake your upstairs? Damn didn't break 73 all day inside here. Was 66 when I woke up in the house this morning 

Bedroom is in full sun during the day-it gets hot from about now through August.

[weatherwiz]

This weekend's weather is actually a bit complex. I'm not totally enthused with convective potential (though isolated convection certainly possible) given the Northwesterly flow through the column which should reduce low-level convergence and raise some issues with boundary layer and low-level moisture. 

In terms of prospective dewpoints this is very interesting because the synoptic look isn't one to favor the advection of higher dewpoints into the region, however, given the placement of the high pressure which looks to be centered across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states could promote moisture working up through the upper-Midwest and transporting into our region from the northwest...which is how we will also get our warmth. But with a predominately NW flow it could be a challenge getting dewpoints up there...especially during peak-mixing hours. There could be a very brief window of pooling ahead of the front though. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

This weekend's weather is actually a bit complex. I'm not totally enthused with convective potential (though isolated convection certainly possible) given the Northwesterly flow through the column which should reduce low-level convergence and raise some issues with boundary layer and low-level moisture. 

NW flow reduce convergence because of larger scale sinking off Appalachia into SE Quad of New England?  

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

NW flow reduce convergence because of larger scale sinking off Appalachia into SE Quad of New England?  

Moreso due to the lack of directional change on either side of the boundary. The greater the difference in wind direction (degrees) the greater the convergence. For example, typically we'll see SW, S, or SW flows ahead of an approaching cold front with winds more W, NW, or WNW behind the cold front...this usually results in increased convergence (and lift) along/just ahead of the front which helps to generate convection. 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Bedroom is in full sun during the day-it gets hot from about now through August.

Shades?

[Ginx snewx]

54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes and NNE. The entire NE Quadrant of North America is burning 

HRRR showed it in the smoke product today 

Killington 

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Moreso due to the lack of directional change on either side of the boundary. The greater the difference in wind direction (degrees) the greater the convergence. For example, typically we'll see SW, S, or SW flows ahead of an approaching cold front with winds more W, NW, or WNW behind the cold front...this usually results in increased convergence (and lift) along/just ahead of the front which helps to generate convection. 

Ah yeah that makes sense.  No veering and wind shift.  Sorry I thought you were talking more generally about NW flow and was thinking we get plenty of convergence in many events on that wind direction.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Killington 

Crazy 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s definitely dry here, we could use some rain.

[HoarfrostHubb]

A bit of old news but my sister who lives in N RI had a 4+ acre brushfire come within 5 feet of her attached garage last week.   Ironically started by accident by an off duty firefighter 

[CoastalWx]

[weatherwiz]

I'm scared about California, Washington, and Oregon this summer

[powderfreak]

39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Killington 

Is that not under control yet?  I figured they had that wrapped up.  Crazy if it’s still going.  

Dont see this very often while hiking in the Northeast .

[Damage In Tolland]

meet = 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Is that not under control yet?  I figured they had that wrapped up.  Crazy if it’s still going.

Dont see this very often while hiking in the Northeast .

This will be a massive story this summer all over the region. Shut em down for good?

[powderfreak]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This will be a massive story this summer all over the region. Shut em down for good?

They’ve had around 2” water this month and 5” last month it looks like too, dries out fast in this low RH regime.  Every afternoon seems to get to 30% RH or lower.

[klw]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Is that not under control yet?  I figured they had that wrapped up.  Crazy if it’s still going.

Dont see this very often while hiking in the Northeast .

I drove past Killington around 6.  There were a couple of big areas of smoke and as I drove along 107 there were at least 2 towns worth of fire crews screaming towards Killington so I think the fire must have expanded.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

They’ve had around 2” water this month and 5” last month it looks like too, dries out fast in this low RH regime.  Every afternoon seems to get to 30% RH or lower.

You want dews 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You want dews 

I used to be afraid of drinking mountain dew b/c of yellow 5 and my group of friends and I were convinced yellow 5 reduced...a very important ingredient in conceiving a baby

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, klw said:

I drove past Killington around 6.  There were a couple of big areas of smoke and as I drove along 107 there were at least 2 towns worth of fire crews screaming towards Killington so I think the fire must have expanded.

Damn!  It was started by new homeowners I guess doing some land clearing and burn pile without a permit and fire ban in place.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Damn!  It was started by new homeowners I guess doing some land clearing and burn pile without a permit and fire ban in place.

That probably won't endear them to their new neighbors.

[Ginx snewx]

43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Damn!  It was started by new homeowners I guess doing some land clearing and burn pile without a permit and fire ban in place.

On the average, Vermont has 200-400 forest fires per year but the average size is only 11/2-2 acres burned. Nearly 50% of these fires are started by debris burning that is failed to be contained, according to northeastwildfire.org.

https://mountaintimes.info/killington-forest-fire/

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

On the average, Vermont has 200-400 forest fires per year but the average size is only 11/2-2 acres burned. Nearly 50% of these fires are started by debris burning that is failed to be contained, according to northeastwildfire.org.

Makes sense, I’d imagine campfires at hiking shelters and overnight spots would be another big one.  The last decent fire in Mansfield State Forest was from a smoldering campfire from hikers.... that one a few years ago burned under the surface or something weird like that, fueling on the peat moss.

While it gets dry, seems like it’s not western dry for sure where a cig tossed out a car window can burn a forest.  Needs to be active coals like burn pile or campfire in most cases I’d imagine.

Hard to get the odd ways they start fires out west, like gender reveal parties... or a lowered Honda Civic bottoming out pulling into a WalMart and the resulting sparks blew into a field in high winds and burned the county down.

 

[DavisStraight]

I got one of those propane weed burners last week, caught one of my bushes on fire, good thing I had a jug of water while I was doing it just in case,

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wow.  Looks like the MVL/MPV/HIE/BML crew will all be 79-81 range for highs.

Here we sat 78-79F all afternoon for hourly obs but I’d imagine we hit 80F in there somewhere.

Yep. High of 78.6° here. ‘Twas a glorious day. 

[PhineasC]

Peaked at 77 in Randolph.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This weekend's weather is actually a bit complex. I'm not totally enthused with convective potential (though isolated convection certainly possible) given the Northwesterly flow through the column which should reduce low-level convergence and raise some issues with boundary layer and low-level moisture. 

In terms of prospective dewpoints this is very interesting because the synoptic look isn't one to favor the advection of higher dewpoints into the region, however, given the placement of the high pressure which looks to be centered across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states could promote moisture working up through the upper-Midwest and transporting into our region from the northwest...which is how we will also get our warmth. But with a predominately NW flow it could be a challenge getting dewpoints up there...especially during peak-mixing hours. There could be a very brief window of pooling ahead of the front though. 

Well then how do we account for MCS?

They like to travel along the TE gradient around the northeast arcs of hot domes such that the region will be situating long that axes - that’s what I was going for originally. 

The thing is with the west wind 0-5km we actually are in positive sheer. 

The other thing is that climatology and heat domes breaking down ...they don’t typically end in a big thunderstorm whacks like that ; it seems like they would, but they they usually just sort of dwindle ..you get three days of dry days and then some front later on which isn’t happening anyway because next week the heat rolls back in  

I think it’s also possible that that whole Northwest flow regime is over model ends up being less

 

 

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Yep. High of 78.6° here. ‘Twas a glorious day. 

Already cooling off nicely... down near 60F now, wife wants to close the place us tight as we have 3 sliding doors open and all windows, indoor/outdoor temp isn't that different.  I convinced her to feel a little chilly as sooner or later it'll be hard to get that feeling, ha.

Also looking at BTV obs, man I am always reminded of how much I enjoy living in a place that cools off very quickly at night.  At 8pm, MVL was 66F (dropping 10F in an hour) while BTV is at 78F.  That immediate difference of 10-15 degrees when the sun goes down is a big deal between needing artificial A/C vs. natural A/C.  We ran the window units pretty steadily in downtown BTV.

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well then how do we account for MCS?

They like to travel along the TE gradient around the northeast arcs of hot domes such that the region will be situating long that axes - that’s what I was going for originally. 

The thing is with the west wind 0-5km we actually are in positive sheer. 

The other thing is that climatology and heat domes breaking down ...they don’t typically end in a big thunderstorm whacks like that ; it seems like they would, but they they usually just sort of dwindle ..you get three days of dry days and then some front later on which isn’t happening anyway because next week the heat rolls back in  

I think it’s also possible that that whole Northwest flow regime is over model ends up being less

 

 

We get the MCS with the northwest flow aloft but morso the mid-levels than the low-levels. Think about it...when we get those ridge rolling MCS' we're typically characterized by a very warm/moist low-level airmass (which we typically need a southerly flow or a southerly component to the flow) and a west-to-northwest flow aloft...this usually helps with mid-level height falls, colder mid-level temperatures, and likely a stronger flow since the northwest flow is likely on the eastward flank of a trough and in between a ridge to the west. 

And agreed...those huge heat domes hardly ever end with big severe.