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May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
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Well .. realistically ?  by the time Saturday arrives we will have been through some 7 days of 'top 20' if not top 10 -type weather. 

Granted, it offers no consolation having to be "fair" ( lol... ).   Nor would one then have to capitulate to fairness by correcting for climate on a weekend day, .. understood.  

If it helps at all,  that doesn't appeal as a cool wet misery Saturday, either - uh, relative to the Euro.  It's 564 thickness still wends through the region, with what gradient can still be discerned out of that crumbled mess still keeping the gray-green oceanic life-suck Labrador death air from moving W...  And with PWAT pooling ... thunderstorms are fun too  :thumbsup:.  Probably training in that look.  Right down the residual US D-M's notice regions too.

Imho, the GFS ... Short version:  I'm discarding the GFS entirely for D4.5 onward, and not really considering it very much so D2 to 4.5...either.  I may not use it again until it is upgraded.. 

Longer version: it is unusable as a model in this pattern - and I wonder if this particular version of that model is just too egregious with it's physical limitations, to be used much at all during the ensuing warm season(s).  By D4 it is clearly - every time I do this analysis - separating it's self from consensus by lowering heights anywhere there is a trough, or... just in the ambience on the polar side of the hemispheric westerlies.  It is usually 3-5 dm by D5, and if not in y-coordinate depth, it may be by areal expanse (x-coordinate) of cold heights bigger than consensus.  This gets worse toward D10's ... It can't maintain ridge nodes and is always the first to collapse them, too. It almost makes me wonder if it's "thermal budgeting" is physically improperly "draining" LR away from the atmosphere ... something - maybe it is just hygroscopic/WV latent heat flux and maintenace handling in general. ..speculation... but it's coherently bad enough to expand thought if one uses this p.o.s. billion dollar technology they've flagship NCEP with...  ho man-

I am not sure if that is related to the following?  Nevertheless... here are the MOS MEX numbers for KFIT, Friday Saturday and Sunday:     55 69| 55 65| 53 67   (the bold being the highs)  Does that seem very reasonable given the universe of modeling technology (that the GFS does not appear to be a part of)  at this point in time   ? 

Tech musing the MEX:   +2 continental synoptic ridge event, one that's focusing the positive anomaly E no less, "might" find an explanation in historic BD contamination.  It is not difficult to imagine a scenario where anticyclonic curvature, resulting NNW streamlined middle troposphere ...featured embedded S/W's in history. They no doubt passed SE out of Canada N of Maine route.  And like usual ... they sent a parting gift slab of Labrador excrement back west as though walking into an elevator and the farter is long gone... By the time the S/W is half way to England and no where to be found ...the cold rolling wave of rhea finally terminates in the Mid Atlantic to ruin it's final beach day along the Jersey shore ..  The data-base that "normalizes"/weights the MOS toward climatology ... I wonder if it has a couple of those cold, more local regional offsets that are thus asynchronous to the synoptics of warm ridging.  In fact...why the f am I writing all this when no one's reading it...  - forget it

That's another aspect ...I find it odd that there is no BD ...really. I mean considering our climatology in May, and the fact that the flow is NW aloft... Maybe one eventually materializes over the weekend out of all that mess. 

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51 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Williamstown forest fire 75 percent contained, largest wildfire in the state since 1999

Pay site.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/05/17/metro/forest-fire-berkshires-is-60-percent-contained/

 

There were several videos on my FB feed, of hikers on the AT, walking along the edge of the ground fires while giving commentary.   Seems safe.    :lol:

 

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