Typhoon Tip Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: 200 acre brush fire in Williamstown yesterday, still seems that top layers appear to be pretty dry. Yeah ...it's hard to separate 'normal' spring fire season from actual deficit drying attributed smoke shows ... I mean, lawns and fields ..even wide open expansive fields of the Fort Devens grounds, where it's 12 hours of blazer sun all day .. are emerald vivacious healthy green right now. U.S. D-M had us in moderate drought, but have since removed this Rt 2 region... based no doubt upon recent rain coverage. The way to effect the synoptic scales isn't that way - it's the larger integral between Dallas- Chicago east to the east coast ... upwind. These local variations don't imposed enough thermodynamic force compared to that entire integral. It's complex ... there are feed-backs that are more local in scale, because they interact with the atmosphere in short time frames and can register quicker. But if foliage evaportransporation is factored in synoptics it's not likely a quick response mechanism.. Be it a hypothesis in the first place lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 No shirt no shoes no problem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ...it's hard to separate 'normal' spring fire season from actual deficit drying attributed smoke shows ... I mean, lawns and fields ..even wide open expansive fields of the Fort Devens grounds, where it's 12 hours of blazer sun all day .. are emerald vivacious healthy green right now. U.S. D-M had us in moderate drought, but have since removed this Rt 2 region... based no doubt upon recent rain coverage. The way to effect the synoptic scales isn't that way - it's the larger integral between Dallas- Chicago east to the east coast ... upwind. These local variations don't imposed enough thermodynamic force compared to that entire integral. It's complex ... there are feed-backs that are more local in scale, because they interact with the atmosphere in short time frames and can register quicker. But if foliage evaportransporation is factored in synoptics it's not likely a quick response mechanism.. Be it a hypothesis in the first place lol.. That was my point on the foliage, are we behind on full leaf out compared to other years? I know it’s usually in May don’t don’t remember if early or late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: That was my point on the foliage, are we behind on full leaf out compared to other years? I know it’s usually in May don’t don’t remember if early or late. Lol... it's funny - every year I do that, 'it's late' or, 'it's early...' game. Not sure - Yet every year ...it seems we go from no foliage on March 20th to full foliage on May 20th ...some how, huh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 I feel like we are close to normal or a couple of days ahead. Nothing scientific to back that up, just what I note from previous years. We were way ahead to start May, but then slowed down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like we are close to normal or a couple of days ahead. Nothing scientific to back that up, just what I note from previous years. We were way ahead to start May, but then slowed down. After the early warmth, I thought we were going to be way ahead up here but the cold snap slowed us back down and I think we are about normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitinsvilleWX Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like we are close to normal or a couple of days ahead. Nothing scientific to back that up, just what I note from previous years. We were way ahead to start May, but then slowed down. I think the oaks are about a week or so behind where I live. I go by how bad the pollen strings are in the pool. I'm usually finished with that mess by the 10th or so. They're still dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Euro still on board with a warmer/dryer weekend vs gfs/cmc. Hoping the euro is right as I’ll be going out to Block Island this Saturday for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like we are close to normal or a couple of days ahead. Nothing scientific to back that up, just what I note from previous years. We were way ahead to start May, but then slowed down. Yeah I agree with mreaves up here... I thought we’d race out well ahead but things seem pretty normal right now. Mid-May and buds opening up to 2000ft, but even in the valley it’s not fully leafed out... early green, small leaves. In March one might have thought we’d have leaves on trees by mid-April, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 In yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 We are close to full leaf out here. I was on the Cape and noticed they were a bit behind. Torchmouth FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: In yet? Funny? no mention of a heat wave? You'd better alert them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 This week could be tough for 90. Maybe Thursday if it's ideal on an inland tarmac. Otherwise Sat or Sun could do it, if the euro guidance is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Occasional thunder to the east in mid-Litchfield County - second day in a row... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Yeah some stuff popping over small boundaries. Some storms down towards New Bedford. High and Stein here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Heh... the GFS wouldn't get above 60 on Saturday with that weird descending bag of confused troughiness ... the model is just obsessively chomping at the bit to end any warm up, it ends up manufacturing weird carbuncle pressure pattern stuck goop.. What the f is that mess? Actually though, even the Euro has a tendency to suddenly recede the heights back SW with the ridge deflating some later Friday night - I wonder ... with the PWAT air pooling and stringing out over/N of the Lakes ..we might see an MCS in there? It's a precarious set up with WNW trajectory at 500 mb, while WSW flow transports increasing DP in the lower troposphere heading into Friday evening...with probably still mid 80s heat. QPF painted in striated bands southern Ontario through Maine in the Euro may actually end up being a right turning complex... If so, that would probably end it - .. But, 22 our of 33 GEF members are slower to erode/'pop' the ridge back to normal as quickly as the operational, and that's reflected in the nightly PNA - granted it is 'supposed' to be less useful as May ages toward June, the CPC's concerted -PNA curve(s) argue for it being useful now as it fits. Anyway, I don't expect us to carry a +2 or 2.5 SD ridge anomaly until September or anything, either... I agree that 90 was always sort of a wild card. Even the cleaner, robust panache of the Euro ridge versions only seems to pack +14.5 C 850mbs into the ridge... It's close. My experience is that 588 dm high balloons tend to bust 850s a tick cool when the days come,...and I could see that ending up 16 and getting it done - sun depending. Not sure - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 2 hours ago, WhitinsvilleWX said: I think the oaks are about a week or so behind where I live. I go by how bad the pollen strings are in the pool. I'm usually finished with that mess by the 10th or so. They're still dropping. Ash trees are just starting, they're behind everything else here except the two 130+ yr old Mulberries that are always last to leaf out (may be why they've endured)... they otherwise look healthy and are well-established, it could be an early sign of EAB damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 When early summers lock in, in mid Mayorch.. look out for a beast summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 In and down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitinsvilleWX Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When early summers lock in, in mid Mayorch.. look out for a beast summer We can only hope and pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 We're sending photog to Dudley for roof blown off a barn from a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: We're sending photog to Dudley for roof blown off a barn from a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: In and down. Franklin 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 No showers today...like yesterday. Same old pattern. Dry till November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: We're sending photog to Dudley for roof blown off a barn from a storm Amazon reviews storm damage now? ( this is a joke, obviously. I know you work for channel 7 now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Amazon reviews storm damage now? ( this is a joke, obviously. I know you work for channel 7 now) Weird thing was, it was a dust devil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 3 hours ago, kdxken said: Funny? no mention of a heat wave? You'd better alert them. You are all kooked out man. Just obsessed with all my posts. We listen to Disturbed on Alexa in honor of KTK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 GFS and GEM look good May 24-26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Play ball!!First game in 2 years. Appropriately this appeared 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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