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May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For BDL? W, T, F

How about your house? Not trying to be an azzhat, curious if you think you’ll sniff 90F. It will certainly be the first summer burst.

Is it full leaf out down there? Up here it isn’t, and forest flood/ground vegetation is not in full swing yet.  May is the month here for warm/hot readings when dry and lacking full vegetation... last year’s 80s and 90s stretch proved that.  Official stations mid-90s, even at elevated valleys like SLK, with a very dry air mass... it was how you draw heat up.

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4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Euro kinda goes to shit after Thursday...hung up boundary with rain/storm chances. Kinda far out there, but wouldn't surprise me to have a torch week and then a lousy weekend.

I say bide time on that.  

It’s been pulsing the ridge back-and-forth in that period. It keeps correcting that ridge reduction later in time too. 

EPS mean and GEFs Telecon layouts also offering room for more ridge resistant..

That said I don’t have a problem with the front door front knocking things back to seasonal but I think the ridge has a chance to roll back in heat the deep range - And no not just because it’s summer but an actual anomaly

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6 hours ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I run my boiler year round. That’s my hot water too. April to October I use about 60-70 gallons of oil to keep me in hot water. Pretty efficient way to make hot water.  

I used to get my domestic hot water from the boiler but installed a hybrid heat pump type when my storage tank died. The first summer with it I turned the boiler off. A few days later, I had water all over the floor. The repair guy told me the seals dried out and shrunk, causing water to leak. Since then I keep it running at a lower temp during summer. 

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However there is more

indication of sea-breeze potential near the eastern MA coast in

today`s 00z guidance that could make coastal MA noticeably cooler

than further inland. NBM 10th percentile high temps for Wed and

Thurs are in the lower 80s across CT and much of western/central MA

and RI, with cooler 70s along the coastlines.

Except for scooter.

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50 minutes ago, kdxken said:

However there is more

indication of sea-breeze potential near the eastern MA coast in

today`s 00z guidance that could make coastal MA noticeably cooler

than further inland. NBM 10th percentile high temps for Wed and

Thurs are in the lower 80s across CT and much of western/central MA

and RI, with cooler 70s along the coastlines.

Except for scooter.

??

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10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

How about your house? Not trying to be an azzhat, curious if you think you’ll sniff 90F. It will certainly be the first summer burst.

Is it full leaf out down there? Up here it isn’t, and forest flood/ground vegetation is not in full swing yet.  May is the month here for warm/hot readings when dry and lacking full vegetation... last year’s 80s and 90s stretch proved that.  Official stations mid-90s, even at elevated valleys like SLK, with a very dry air mass... it was how you draw heat up.

May heat generally comes with modest dews.  Between that and limited transpiration the sun has much less water to heat, so it does a better job of cooking the air.

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Weird operational depictions from the overnight 00z.

They all came in more static and resistant holding the 500 mb height circumvallate longer - but they offset the 'warm' departure chances by introducing so much choking noise with cloud timing this and failure to integrate WV ( apparently ) that ... if the GFS gets its way, it'll be below normal temperatures under 590 heights :arrowhead:I

I dunno - can't trust that. 

The models seem like their parental organizations ( ECMWF and NCEP ..) are parameterizing the models runs with dimming factors to prevent hot patterns. Lol.  It gets frustrating -

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I wonder ... the 40th parallel across the Continent and above:   ...we may not yet be fully getting that quota of soil and foliage WV back from the landscape ... then integrating back into the diurnal cycling/processing. We may just be starting to - it's like this ridge beat the geomorphology contribution by just enough that's missing some thermodynamics.

That's a crucial thermodynamic feedback there.  When/if under ridging, very high intense insolation ( sun ) + the moisture evaporation off the land-mass, stores tremendous latent heat ... helping the expansion of these summer ridges ... it's synoptic-planetary positive feed back. That adds to the ambient downward vertical motion, thus evacuates the clouds more proficiently ...

Last week we had only flowers and some leaf. There's also be well-popularized annoying stein talk, but it's not really just here... no where from the around the eastern U.S. is exactly flooding this spring...  It's all super complicated.   I dunno it just seems the models have had a bad attitude about actually outfitting this ridge event with much actual warmth.  I mean 14C under 590s heights... It'll be warm, sure.  But it's kind of shirking it frankly.   And then, the ridge can't seem to more typically "cap" convection ... transporting stupid butterfly fart vort shrapnel this and mid level ceiling pollution that, and it's all taking toll and we end up like the GFS with a +2 deviation late spring heat dome with no heat -

I noticed also that there was no SW heat/Sonoran released air mass layers into this thing either - probably not helping.  

The ridge and sun and warmth should be cleaner is all...and the GFS is running away with using dirt to dim potential. 

 

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder ... the 40th parallel across the Continent and above:   ...we may not yet be fully getting that quota of soil and foliage WV back from the landscape ... then integrating back into the diurnal cycling/processing. We may just be starting to - it's like this ridge beat the geomorphology contribution by just enough that's missing some thermodynamics.

That's a crucial thermodynamic feedback there.  When/if under ridging, very high intense insolation ( sun ) + the moisture evaporation off the land-mass, stores tremendous latent heat ... helping the expansion of these summer ridges ... it's synoptic-planetary positive feed back. That adds to the ambient downward vertical motion, thus evacuates the clouds more proficiently ...

Last week we had only flowers and some leaf. There's also be well-popularized annoying stein talk, but it's not really just here... no where from the around the eastern U.S. is exactly flooding this spring...  It's all super complicated.   I dunno it just seems the models have had a bad attitude about actually outfitting this ridge event with much actual warmth.  I mean 14C under 590s heights... It'll be warm, sure.  But it's kind of shirking it frankly.   And then the ridge can seem to more typically "cap" convenction and stupid vort shrapnel mid level ceiling pollution taking their toll and we end like the GFS with a +2 deviation late spring heat dome with no heat -

I noticed also that there was no SW heat/Sonoran released air mass layers into this thing either - probably not helping.  

 

200 acre brush fire in Williamstown yesterday, still seems that top layers appear to be pretty dry.

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