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May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
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36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No they didn't . Just because you say deep summer because you think it and want it doesn't mean it will. Post some reasons and links to your reasoning.  Nice ridge nice retreat

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh0-240.gif

The last chart set you posted had all 50’s and 60’s and we’re too cold . I don’t need to see charts .. it doesn’t take a genius to look at the global pattern , a -PNA thru months end and a neutral NAO , along with a stout SE ridge to see the last 15 days of the month will be WAN. Something along the lines of. +5 to +7 in the means. We summer 

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21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Could be another round of -nao 50/50 towards month end, based on eps.

Keep it warm...I would prefer open windows to air conditioners, so might be ok moving into June. I would like to get my garden planted, 80s are welcomed next week

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27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pushing 70° already. Love it. 

74 here at 10 stations within 5 mi ... average -

Meso west/UT has Fit 73 too...

gotta figure we ceiling temp early and start doing more of that cap CU virga shit... Even had a couple of nickel blats under one or two passes of those tendrils yesterday.

LI's now further down to -1 .. -2 in recent NAM runs and noticing the GGEM and GFS op's with convective popcorn QPF between 18 and 00z the next two days.

I guess you can't really lodge 75 F up under 545 dm thickness without some form or another of instability, huh -   maybe we can even get an overachiever thunder clap going.

I love how ( presently...) it is apparently Kevin's fault it is cloud in N CT as it is most easily identifiable that the hill line of his specific geography is causing the quasi standing wave phenomenon there...  interesting -     heh

 

 

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18 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Big brush fire burning up in Leyden right now.  
An hour ago this was just a small column of smoke and now half the hilltop is on fire.

830386A2-0E20-48DF-BEDF-82ACDB7C315B.thumb.jpeg.86f63b7e720168c16e21462a5797070f.jpeg

Enough vert for tree skiing come winter, snowfields like Sugarloaf? lol

  • Haha 1
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14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's some mid summer heat showing up though maybe not as dewey just yet.

First 90s? 

It's like a gutted ridge ...

It's a moderately robust ridge signal.  582 dm, with so-so-sized geographical region 588 ... ( it could also still be a pattern in the process of emerging in the runs too) . 

But for now the thickness lines are only 558 with pocketed 564 dm throughout the OV, Lowe Lakes to NE ...  For 582 heights, that is on the low side of a moderate ridge amplitude  - the dry pervasive DPs your noting is why that is so ... non for integrate hydrostatic heights.  

Not sure why for the continental dearth in moisture - but more typically this sort of ridge couches 564 overall thickness, with a few 570 pockets ... It's almost like a warm March or April ridge event, where it can nudge 80, but those tend to be a parched DP layouts.  We may actually put  some moisture back into this air mass now that vegetation is absolutely exploding - this region up here along Rt 2 has doubled foliage biomass in just the last 3 days ...it was mostly flowerettes and unfurled leafs before.  

I just think that is interesting ... we still could bake afternoons given sufficient mixing and 900 and 850 mb thermal layers as modeled, but the nights may crater until we can start infusing more WV into the column.   

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30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's like a gutted ridge ...

It's a moderately robust ridge signal.  582 dm, with so-so-sized geographical region 588 ... ( it could also still be a pattern in the process of emerging in the runs too) . 

But for now the thickness lines are only 558 with pocketed 564 dm throughout the OV, Lowe Lakes to NE ...  For 582 heights, that is on the low side of a moderate ridge amplitude  - the dry pervasive DPs your noting is why that is so ... non for integrate hydrostatic heights.  

Not sure why for the continental dearth in moisture - but more typically this sort of ridge couches 564 overall thickness, with a few 570 pockets ... It's almost like a warm March or April ridge event, where it can nudge 80, but those tend to be a parched DP layouts.  We may actually put  some moisture back into this air mass now that vegetation is absolutely exploding - this region up here along Rt 2 has doubled foliage biomass in just the last 3 days ...it was mostly flowerettes and unfurled leafs before.  

I just think that is interesting ... we still could bake afternoons given sufficient mixing and 900 and 850 mb thermal layers as modeled, but the nights may crater until we can start infusing more WV into the column.   

Fantastic weather, night time catering is fine by me. Great sleeping weather, keeps the bugs at bay and the fish hungry.

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We just had an interesting T spike and wind increase here...   Almost smacks as heat burst - albeit minor..

But last hour it was 74 around most therms with cloud pancaking ...no wind calm.  Now, active west breeze, open sky with fractal cu and down right warm feel. Reasonably well matches the 81 rounding number at KFIT ... 81 at homes stations around town.  Above MOS

It feels very warm ...not just that mild thing -  like warm wind ?  ...

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Victory!

Temperature wise, expecting above normal temperatures most of
this portion of the forecast. By Tuesday, could be looking at
high temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. High
temperatures should only get higher from there towards the end
of next week. Not seeing much potential for seabreezes, but a
general south to west flow will favor lower temperatures along
the immediate south coast, especially the Cape and islands.
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