May 2021 Discussion

[dendrite]

Low of 45°…already up to 63°. The vegetation will go wild over the next week. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Got chillier last night than I thought it would.  Bradley CT, Nashua NH and Bedford MA were are 39 - decoupling killer.

But, it's also warmer by hour this morning's recovery than I imagined, too - 69 already here as of 9:15 am with a few 70 even ... home stations dappled about. 

Fithchburg MA is 66 at 9: am, and Boston knocks the door of 70 too if not already there.

76 incoming ... The sounding exposes this as a weird scenario, actually.  I mean 500 mb thicknesses are still chilly, mid 540s... You don't typically see temperatures bathing the surface in mid or even upper 70s with the metrical condition - more like a triple nickels dm thickness for that range.   It's like the warmth is stacked in the bottom of the atmosphere ... It's making the conditions unstable.   LI's reflect that being down to 0 to +2 range .... Low DPs are probably making parcels invisible - lol... Like invisible CB.. kidding. But, we might still observer some crispy pop-cornies ... 

The very superb heating conditions with no cloud, and purer air in absence of any offsetting CAA anywhere is probably going to cap temp early and then bounce around on the thermometer stealing 10ths of a degree higher to erode it's way up to 77 in few spots maybe.

Basically ...anatomy of utopia

wow BDL got to 39. MOS/NBM were mid-40's  

I guess though a further inspection of the synoptics and even mesoscale should have made it rather clear the lows would undershoot the guidance. High pressure building in, winds becoming pretty light, relatively dry BL. Outside of Monday night though BDL has undershoot guidance lows. 

Forecasting lows is so challenging...well for me it is. I kinda suck at it. There are several cities (especially like down in TX) where guidance can be horrific with lows. I thought maybe the NBM would be better but I find it to suck just as much in many cases. I do find the NBM though to be pretty damn good with sky cover. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

wow BDL got to 39. MOS/NBM were mid-40's  

I guess though a further inspection of the synoptics and even mesoscale should have made it rather clear the lows would undershoot the guidance. High pressure building in, winds becoming pretty light, relatively dry BL. Outside of Monday night though BDL has undershoot guidance lows. 

Forecasting lows is so challenging...well for me it is. I kinda suck at it. There are several cities (especially like down in TX) where guidance can be horrific with lows. I thought maybe the NBM would be better but I find it to suck just as much in many cases. I do find the NBM though to be pretty damn good with sky cover. 

Down to 35 with patchy Frost in my location in Enfield last night

[Typhoon Tip]

In fact re the country-side flora ...  the sugar maple - type species are noticeably fuller in the leaf bloom just since yesterday.  It's like we went from 1/3 unfurl to 1/2 or even 2/3rds in the one night. 

I wonder about the temperature sensitivity relationship in vegetation ...if single preceding day's/weather patterns can trigger a specific night of robust recovery.  Interesting. I mean it could just be coincidence, but yesterday really 'felt' more like shorts weather ( thought I kept with two layers and pants like a middle aged noog lol ..) anyway, and the leaves were tinier. I remember thinking about this, too - then this morning they clearly and discernably seem more open/bigger ...casting more like real shadows on the ground.

[CoastalWx]

Wouldn't mind some shwrs now and then though. Keeps things growing. 5-7 sunny days and you need to water. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Down to 35 with patchy Frost in my location in Enfield last night

wow!

When I left this morning around 6:45 it was quite chilly. I kinda hate this time of year b/c gotta throw the heat on to get the chill out then you forget the heat is on and as you're driving and the sun is ascending you're hit with a wall of heat then need to switch to AC. 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

wow BDL got to 39. MOS/NBM were mid-40's  

I guess though a further inspection of the synoptics and even mesoscale should have made it rather clear the lows would undershoot the guidance. High pressure building in, winds becoming pretty light, relatively dry BL. Outside of Monday night though BDL has undershoot guidance lows. 

Forecasting lows is so challenging...well for me it is. I kinda suck at it. There are several cities (especially like down in TX) where guidance can be horrific with lows. I thought maybe the NBM would be better but I find it to suck just as much in many cases. I do find the NBM though to be pretty damn good with sky cover. 

Yup ...  particularly in these pattern "seam" nights like this ?

Basically... in three nights, it can be clear all it wants, even still maintaining a rather low DP ...RH ... and the temp stalls at a 47 everywhere.

Yesterday, whimsy with words I denoted this as "kinetically charged nocturnal lows" .... trying to sort of 'cartoon' describe it when it seems you can keep lows from falling sometimes, without the obvious DP assist. 

It just seems like there is something more to nocturnal lows than just DP ... It's like sometimes - not sure why or if this is even real ...anecdotal - a DP of 39 under the same observable synoptic metrics stalls everyone higher ...but those same calm winds and clear ceilings and DPs like last night, over-achieve by several...  I've hypothesized that the atmosphere not including WV ...also has some vestigial thermal cache if perhaps several days of processing.  But than that doesn't make sense at all when we consider that deserts routinely go from sub freezing to very hot in afternoons.  

So yeah... I guess I don't have a f'n clue on this one  LOL

[Spanks45]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

wow!

When I left this morning around 6:45 it was quite chilly. I kinda hate this time of year b/c gotta throw the heat on to get the chill out then you forget the heat is on and as you're driving and the sun is ascending you're hit with a wall of heat then need to switch to AC. 

32.4 at 5:30 am here, already up to 67.5 off of a high of 71.1 yesterday....what a roller coaster

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Get em in soon 

Earlier guidance showed more potential for cooler
northern stream energy to bring cooler temps southward; but most
models now show enough ridging aloft to suppress this well to our
north and east. Given this trend, the potential for 80-degree
temperatures exists at least across the interior looking into
Wed and Thurs. Spread in the guidance on temps is still
considerable though: some 20 to 25 degree differences between
the 10th and 90th percentile NBM high temperature values which
helps put the uncertainty in some context. The deterministic NBM
is something of a middle ground on temps and will stick close
to it. It still features above normal temps in the period, but
could be significantly warmer than presently depicted if current
trends hold.

Mmmm yeeeeah I'd not take that to the bank - no way. ...

I mean, we grew up in New England's "Pulp Fiction" basement scene, spring horror ...  Sorry, that above cannot be bankable. 

I was looking things over with a smirk and thinking, yeah ...it's warm days on the Euro but anytime we see a +1 SD velocity northwest mid level flow/jet stream hosing SE from mid latitude Ontario to over the lower Maritimes, that's usually an automatic BD genesis at some point or the other.  I mean, the model tries to maintain that structure as a 'laminar' flow with no perturbations or 'bumps' in the stream, for days?  A this range ... good luck!

Granted, that is just the 00z run ... We could be on the cusp of a series of runs that show less vestigial -NAO ( which is what that is, btw - a tussle between the -PNA trying to overwhelm the circuitry across the country, while the NAO imposes some sort of subtle blocking that's less than more obvious at the same time... ).  I mean in fairness they intimated as much, "..if current trends hold" so we'll see.

It's almost like to separate probability curves though.. lol.  Like, all that modeling is one,   ..then, the other probably of just being b- f*ed...  Those seem to be driven along by different physical processes.  hahahaha

[Damage In Tolland]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wouldn't mind some shwrs now and then though. Keeps things growing. 5-7 sunny days and you need to water. 

Hi

[weatherwiz]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ...  particularly in these pattern "seam" nights like this ?

Basically... in three nights, it can be clear all it wants, even still maintaining a rather low DP ...RH ... and the temp stalls at a 47 everywhere.

Yesterday, whimsy with words I denoted this as "kinetically charged nocturnal lows" .... trying to sort of 'cartoon' describe it when it seems you can keep lows from falling sometimes, without the obvious DP assist. 

It just seems like there is something more to nocturnal lows than just DP ... It's like sometimes - not sure why or if this is even real ...anecdotal - a DP of 39 under the same observable synoptic metrics stalls everyone higher ...but those same calm winds and clear ceilings and DPs like last night, over-achieve by several...  I've hypothesized that the atmosphere not including WV ...also has some vestigial thermal cache if perhaps several days of processing.  But than that doesn't make sense at all when we consider that deserts routinely go from sub freezing to very hot in afternoons.  

So yeah... I guess I don't have a f'n clue on this one  LOL

I strongly agree with this. I've noticed this to especially true say along the Gulf Coast and Florida...and I'm sure other places. I think I came about this one ear doing the weather challenge. I think it was a Florida location but I was using current dewpoints and forecast dewpoints (along with sky cover and other parameters) to assist with low forecast. Seeing dews were like low 60's I went with a low that was in the lower 60's...well the dew points would drop into like the mid 50's and well the temperature would drop below 60 lol. 

I wish there was a model product available on the various model sites (maybe there is but I haven't found it) or even a tab on buflit which displayed forecast radiation loss or net radiation. The USL for the weather challenge had this category. I would think this could be extremely useful in many situations. 

16 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

32.4 at 5:30 am here, already up to 67.5 off of a high of 71.1 yesterday....what a roller coaster

Gotta love the 30-40F diurnal swings  

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I strongly agree with this. I've noticed this to especially true say along the Gulf Coast and Florida...and I'm sure other places. I think I came about this one ear doing the weather challenge. I think it was a Florida location but I was using current dewpoints and forecast dewpoints (along with sky cover and other parameters) to assist with low forecast. Seeing dews were like low 60's I went with a low that was in the lower 60's...well the dew points would drop into like the mid 50's and well the temperature would drop below 60 lol. 

I wish there was a model product available on the various model sites (maybe there is but I haven't found it) or even a tab on buflit which displayed forecast radiation loss or net radiation. The USL for the weather challenge had this category. I would think this could be extremely useful in many situations. 

Gotta love the 30-40F diurnal swings  

Yeah cuz I was just thinking about this further.  A 'radiation budget' and the physicality of an environmental setting, 'might' play a role ...

I mused up there about the 96/31, typical lower Saharan diurnal spread of desert air, as being inconsistent with that idea but hold on for a second:  It occurs to me, ...that's not really a very proficient black body example. 

The desert is white and pale sand and dust. These surfaces heat up, but also do not store as much radiative heat - such that at night, they don't have as much radiation to give back to the kinetic temperature of the atmosphere - so the cooling momentum is larger and out 'weights' in that sense, the restorative availability - temp plummets. 

Interesting... I think there may be something to that.  Contrasting, ...if we are in absence of CAA in an otherwise dry air mass over American soils and physical settings, we are far more proficiently storing radiative energy from insolation during preceding afternoons -  and thus have much more in in the nocturnal cycle to radiate back. 

I don't know - it's as good a hypothesis as any.  If the dark body objects.. foliage and so forth, all store more thermal energy during the day, a clear night has to radiate more.  Such that after a couple ... few days, the ground is gaining more and more energy than can be completely emitted away ..so there is a net thermal gain after repetitive days of it.  That "might" offer an explanation for the "kinetically charged" dry air phenomenon we are scratching heads over - ...  why after a few days, the same DP stays warmer suddenly.  It could just be black-body storage phenomenon

 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah cuz I was just thinking about this further.  A 'radiation budget' and the physicality of an environmental setting, 'might' play a role ...

I mused up there about the 96/31, typical lower Saharan diurnal spread of desert air, as being inconsistent with that idea but hold on for a second:  It occurs to me, ...that's not really a very proficient black body example. 

The desert is white and pale sand and dust. These surfaces heat up, but also do not store as much radiative heat - such that at night, they don't have as much radiation to give back to the kinetic temperature of the atmosphere - so the cooling momentum is larger and out 'weights' in that sense, the restorative availability - temp plummets. 

Interesting... I think there may be something to that.  Contrasting, ...if we are in absence of CAA in an otherwise dry air mass over American soils and physical settings, we are far more proficiently storing radiative energy from insolation during preceding afternoons -  and thus have much more in in the nocturnal cycle to radiate back. 

I don't know - it's as good a hypothesis as any.  If the dark body objects.. foliage and so forth, all store more thermal energy during the day, a clear night has to radiate more.  Such that after a couple ... few days, the ground is gaining more and more energy than can be completely emitted away ..so there is a net thermal gain after repetitive days of it.  That "might" offer an explanation for the "kinetically charged" dry air phenomenon we are scratching heads over - ...  why after a few days, the same DP stays warmer suddenly.  It could just be black-body storage phenomenon

 

That's a pretty interesting theory and makes sense when you break it down like that. If we think about the Earth's radiation budget, there is typically a net surplus closer to the equator and a net deficit closer to the Arctic region and in the essence of balance the net surplus equals the net deficit and boom...you have a balanced Earth energy budget...but with the idea of global warming this balance is probably not so balanced anymore. Anyways got a bit off topic but the idea I'm getting at is to what you were saying...theoretically if we're storing more energy during the diurnal cycle, for some sort of balance to be restored, just as much energy needs to be released in the radiative process. 

What would be a super interesting study is taking a collection of nights where radiative cooling occurs and temperature readings at the lowest surface elevations within that area and then record temperatures at surrounding higher elevations. As we know with radiative cooling, lower elevations tend to be colder than higher elevations (resulting in an inversion). Just from observations, there seem to be times where the temperature gradient between a lower elevation and higher elevation could be pretty steep...you could essentially probably measure the "release" of radiation based off the temperature gradient 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's a pretty interesting theory and makes sense when you break it down like that. If we think about the Earth's radiation budget, there is typically a net surplus closer to the equator and a net deficit closer to the Arctic region and in the essence of balance the net surplus equals the net deficit and boom...you have a balanced Earth energy budget...but with the idea of global warming this balance is probably not so balanced anymore. Anyways got a bit off topic but the idea I'm getting at is to what you were saying...theoretically if we're storing more energy during the diurnal cycle, for some sort of balance to be restored, just as much energy needs to be released in the radiative process. 

What would be a super interesting study is taking a collection of nights where radiative cooling occurs and temperature readings at the lowest surface elevations within that area and then record temperatures at surrounding higher elevations. As we know with radiative cooling, lower elevations tend to be colder than higher elevations (resulting in an inversion). Just from observations, there seem to be times where the temperature gradient between a lower elevation and higher elevation could be pretty steep...you could essentially probably measure the "release" of radiation based off the temperature gradient 

Well... we'd have to physically calculate the difference between radiative budget, versus mechanical cooling source - that latter skews the cooling amount.

See, in that case of 'lower els' ... that's drainage and accumulation, due to basin phenomenon ..blah blah ... But what we were talking about is strictly the black-body thermal storing/environmental caching as possible reason for lower DP warm nocturnal nights, during residual pattern ( i.e., unchanging in the latter sense ) .

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, Dan said:

Didn't see this posted.  I wonder why.  Hmmm.

 

Ding dong the Stein is dead. The wicked Stein is dead!

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... we'd have to physically calculate the difference between radiative budget, versus mechanical cooling source - that latter skews the cooling amount.

See, in that case of 'lower els' ... that's drainage and accumulation, due to basin phenomenon ..blah blah ... But what we were talking about is strictly the black-body thermal storing/environmental caching as possible reason for lower DP warm nocturnal nights, during residual pattern ( i.e., unchanging in the latter sense ) .

Gotcha.

So in this sense this basically is probably determined by BL decoupling which is another challenge in itself. Hell, it only takes a brief period of de-coupling for temps to just drop and then boom...climb right back up when coupling re-occurs. 

[DavisStraight]

Already 70 here, I need an excuse to go on the road today instead of being cooped up in my office.

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Already 70 here, I need an excuse to go on the road today instead of being cooped up in my office.

I'm selling a camper...cheap...let me know if you are interested...

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Already 70 here, I need an excuse to go on the road today instead of being cooped up in my office.

Heh.... how 'bout,

                                                   ' we're all dead in 50 years by life expectancy alone ... excluding the proverbial lightning strikes of chance so, f.u. - I'm outta here'

You know ..it pays to find a congenial work environment with non-douchian managerial apparatus of at least modest humanists in charge ...

I can walk into my boss' office and say, " Hey Jim - uh...  - "    interrupts, "see ya tomorrow"

The amazing thing about that is ...if the employee in that circumstance and scenario does it with relatively infrequence, it's not even remembered.   And, because they are happier, the are 10 X's more productive

[DavisStraight]

49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh.... how 'bout,

                                                   ' we're all dead in 50 years by life expectancy alone ... excluding the proverbial lightning strikes of chance so, f.u. - I'm outta here'

You know ..it pays to find a congenial work environment with non-douchian managerial apparatus of at least modest humanists in charge ...

I can walk into my boss' office and say, " Hey Jim - uh...  - "    interrupts, "see ya tomorrow"

The amazing thing about that is ...if the employee in that circumstance and scenario does it with relatively infrequence, it's not even remembered.   And, because they are happier, the are 10 X's more productive

I'm self employed but have reports to write, just picked the wrong day to stay in and write reports.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I'm self employed but have reports to write, just picked the wrong day to stay in and write reports.

Lol...  I prefer to think of this phenomenon as the weather happening at you ...not around you -

I once had to be in a meeting with hook echo on radar 4 miles away while hail core was signaling golf balls, and there were no window in that conference room.  man... never forget that. All I could do was wonder if that was thunder through ten different walls of an office building's diffused auditory vagueness.  

after the meeting there's leaves and small branch debris literally grounds with scung lines from the curb flooding so deep it came across yards of the complex. Sun was shining...

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm selling a camper...cheap...let me know if you are interested...

isn't that 'Cousin Eddy' 's from 1989 Xmas Vacation - lol

[Damage In Tolland]

84-87 next Wednesday/Thursday 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ..it pays to find a congenial work environment with non-douchian managerial apparatus of at least modest humanists in charge ...

  Cannot be overstated enough.

Today the Cu field and even some convective looking stuff is flaring up now this way.  Just had a brief cell drop rain drops the size of small pinecones it seemed like.  Splats but wide enough in frequency that they didn't fully wet the ground.

Definitely a lot more clouds up here today than yesterday.  Must've been the one in a million bright sunny day on NW flow under a cold pool.  Satellite loop is pretty cool, just exploded at detonation time.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

84-87 next Wednesday/Thursday 

Yup ...this GFS run continues to trend away from climatology on that ridge -

and by that I mean, literally ...it is UNclimatologically sound to expect that circulation structure to win out that way - but ... be that as it must, if the present solution works out, we somehow dodge the N/door and/or BD boundary(s) through that period and spill OV/ G. Lakes early heat dome into the region.

Assuming so ... this doesn't have any tracing back to a Sonoran or SW air layer ejection modeling so... the heat is sort of 'home grown' .. deeper tropospheric heights working with high hot sun of late spring will amass 82-88 time temperature departures inside that synoptic region.  

But keep in mind that we are still talking about D5 ... 7 with active polar jet streaking by N of Maine so it's precarious.   I hope not ...I hate BDs with the passion more intense than the foresaid sun, but.. gotta be a realist too

[Sn0waddict]

CMC is an all out torch next weekend

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

  Cannot be overstated enough.

Today the Cu field and even some convective looking stuff is flaring up now this way.  Just had a brief cell drop rain drops the size of small pinecones it seemed like.  Splats but wide enough in frequency that they didn't fully wet the ground.

Definitely a lot more clouds up here today than yesterday.  Must've been the one in a million bright sunny day on NW flow under a cold pool.  Satellite loop is pretty cool, just exploded at detonation time.

 

 

Outside my front door, ...which is gaping to gulp in the 76 F balm as much as a possible..., there is a metallic awning.  These small dark CU actually ping the top of that awing as the pass over with small rain drops - like 10 drops per cu and that's it.  Weird... Fair weather CU spritz. 

But, looking around, there are also glaciated nebulae encasing some of these CU edges so ...it's kind of hybrid between both worlds. Like it's snowing at 6,000 feet easily ... and very unstable but only in like 100 mb of total depth ... not much getting to the 500 mb level even.. Just bouncing densely around in that layer under a cap ...

It's like a snow shower atmosphere sitting overtop a 75 F lower elevations.. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

CMC is an all out torch next weekend

Yeah...it seems the models are trying to get us into a more important early warm anomaly ...and maybe we're just seeing a reluctant sort of emergence in doing so ?  

I've bee warning Kevin all morning about our sore-butt spring climate but it seems every time I do, the models deliberately go even more against - fascinating really...

The telecon's are falling in correlative significance, (seasonally..) but ...fwiw the PNA is getting into historically deep territory in the CPC mean ...  Don Sutherland had posted recently that it was some - 2.47 I believe ...  At the time, this image below was not depicting what this image below is showing now - lol... The mean of those mop-ended members ... ~ -2 there, with a few members even deeper as we can see clearly ... It may just overwhelm the hemisphere regardless of any lingering blocking signals/tendencies..  It seems the models have been tussling between that happening and some backward -NAO exertion/driving troughing through the Maritimes but ...if this signal below gets more momentous it probably doesn't matter ...the progressive wave signature will transmit through the domain and send the western limb of the NAO domain space packing -

[weatherwiz]

There is backdoor cold front potential next weekend...although not sure it's backdoor by definition but pretty decent signal for a N-S moving cold front late next week

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...it seems the models are trying to get us into a more important early warm anomaly ...and maybe we're just seeing a reluctant sort of emergence in doing so ?  

I've bee warning Kevin all morning about our sore-butt spring climate but it seems every time I do, the models deliberately go even more against - fascinating really...

The telecon's are falling in correlative significance, (seasonally..) but ...fwiw the PNA is getting into historically deep territory in the CPC mean ...  Don Sutherland had posted recently that it was some - 2.47 I believe ...  At the time, this image below was not depicting what this image below is showing now - lol... The mean of those mop-ended members ... ~ -2 there, with a few members even deeper as we can see clearly ... It may just overwhelm the hemisphere regardless of any lingering blocking signals/tendencies..  It seems the models have been tussling between that happening and some backward -NAO exertion/driving troughing through the Maritimes but ...if this signal below gets more momentous it probably doesn't matter ...the progressive wave signature will transmit through the domain and send the western limb of the NAO domain space packing -

Sore butt from too much aggressive wiping or sore butt from something else?