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May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
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It's interesting to see the Euro and GFS switch positions on the mid range ...now, looking at D5 ..6, it is the GFS that has consistently offered a more progressive vibe with the heights exiting through the Maritimes ... limiting the backward calving wave look/and Euro certitude for N-dooring/BD air masses gumming up spring yet more ...ugh.  

Thing is, Euro has our unique butt boning climate on its side...

But the GFS has now taken to the Euro's look from 3 days ago regarding that - back then, the Euro was the one with the more progressive vibe and the GFS was diving the heights in from the N.

The GEFs show about 2/3rds more like the operational, and about 1/3 of those 33 member lodging a cut-off near the region. 

Fort shits and giggles the 12z ICON solution looks cat paw-like over eastern zones D7 ... while that synoptic layout supports was 86 in Michigan ... 70 N of Maine... I mean, really? - why do these runs have to run out like NCEP is doing this on purposefully to f* Worcester...?   Gotta give credit to the forces of fate and destiny in having that be that location's name because it's clearly the "Worced" g-damned place to live on Earth in May lol

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32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Cold pool FTL

It's a 'non-accessible' one, too - 

I mean, pancaking at 11:15 to noon means there's probably a 650 mb layer CIN going on ... so we can't tap the free lift part of the sounding at real mid levels.  

I'm just ready for a pattern change.   We've been running along with a frigid spring pattern, yet putting up average temperatures ... for a month now. It gets old -

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a 'non-accessible' one, too - 

I mean, pancaking at 11:15 to noon means there's probably a 650 mb layer CIN going on ... so we can tap the free lift part of the sounding at real mid levels.  

I'm just ready for a pattern change.   We're been running along with a frigid spring pattern, yet putting up average temperatures ... for a month now. It gets old -

There were some Northeast stations that still ended up several degrees above MOS the past few days lol and still got pretty damn close to daily average 

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a 'non-accessible' one, too - 

I mean, pancaking at 11:15 to noon means there's probably a 650 mb layer CIN going on ... so we can't tap the free lift part of the sounding at real mid levels.  

I'm just ready for a pattern change.   We're been running along with a frigid spring pattern, yet putting up average temperatures ... for a month now. It gets old -

Interesting that the deep layer flow is NW from 850 to 500mb... but the clouds are ending up thickest over the normal "sinking" air spots.

Almost like a highly unblocked flow way down wind of the terrain.  Nothing over the northern Adirondacks but clouds forming downwind of that zone.  Same with nothing really off the Greens down to the west slopes of Berkshires/Taconics.... Northern Whites staying pretty clear too. 

The usual cloudy suspects on deep NW flow are seeing the most sun today, with the thickest cloud cover the further downwind you get, intriguing.

Loop is pretty cool: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Untitled.jpg.01d1aa5dd62517dfb39ca9a83e9c8e13.jpg

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You can see the cool pool moving SE as the clouds scour from NNE . Should see that continue to progress . Model cross sections showed diurnal cu , so there shouldn’t be all this shock and awe 

Not a bad analysis actually... I'm noticing at a more discrete level that there is a subtle declination in the 500 mb heights passing through between 12z and 18z ...and as that exits south and heights rise just that little bit ..we may see the skies improve 2-5 pm ...

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting that the deep layer flow is NW from 850 to 500mb... but the clouds are ending up thickest over the normal "sinking" air spots.

Almost like a highly unblocked flow way down wind of the terrain.  Nothing over the northern Adirondacks but clouds forming downwind of that zone.  Same with nothing really off the Greens down to the west slopes of Berkshires/Taconics.... Northern Whites staying pretty clear too. 

The usual cloudy suspects on deep NW flow are seeing the most sun today, with the thickest cloud cover the further downwind you get, intriguing.

 

Yeah... I just posted the most likely reason for that - least why I think...  There are some height rises moving down from your neck of the woods and we may see some improving skies sweep this way after 2 or so.

It's amazing how riveting the weather is to talk about right now, huh.    lol

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I just posted the most likely reason for that - least why I think...  There are some height rises moving down from your neck of the woods and we may see some improving skies sweep over down this way.

It's amazing how riveting the weather is to talk about right now, huh.    lol

Ha, right.  Very interesting stuff :lol:.  Cu fields exploding in southern Canada too now with another very weak shortwave dropping south and models have some very light QPF getting near the International border later this afternoon/evening.

It does look like we are right in a gap up here now per 6z EURO... some weak energy to the south and weak energy to the north.  Slightly lower heights SE NE compared to NW NE until this evening. 

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Good call.  You are right on the ball to check the model cross sections.

I only looked at the Time-Series and you can see it there too... ORH showing the pockets of high RH in the afternoon today and tomorrow.

Untitled.jpg.5a071a373de1a14f4b9d98109ad0c55d.jpg

 

Tomorrow looked more clouds over the elevations while valleys, shore not so much. Today the coast will end up the worst cloud wise even with downsloping . Was surprised to see all the dumbfounded posts today 

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Mm ... 'Wiz' and I have been elaborating about the cool mid level lagging look for these days through Saturday since the day before yesterday - ... It may be focused this morning along an axis, though, enhancing matters.   But we are seeing the expected improvements as that broader based dark bottoms are gone and what's out there looks more fractal cu and debris in nature.

So... halt humanity and stop the Earth spinning while we figure out this inCREdibly urgent subject matter -

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