Brian5671 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: There should be numerous showers around tomorrow...especially second half of the day. NAM keeps alot of it west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 Just now, Brian5671 said: NAM keeps alot of it west I think the majority of that is with that axis of rain/thunderstorms expected to move across PA/western NY later tonight. Tomorrow during the day we should see numerous showers pop with the steep lapse rates and residual llvl moisture around. Certainly not going to be any washouts or big rain totals but just lots of light showers...maybe even some orographic component which is kinda hinted at based on the structure of those amounts across our region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats on nam and hrrr Awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Looks pretty paltry to me... mabe 0.10-0.20" for him...less for me It’s pop corn showers with cold air aloft. Enough to eff up the aftn as he drops to 48 in a shower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: It’s pop corn showers with cold air aloft. Enough to eff up the aftn as he drops to 48 in a shower. Pretty scattered tho... he might wind up dry (although I would not bet on it) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: It’s pop corn showers with cold air aloft. Enough to eff up the aftn as he drops to 48 in a shower. There's going to be many places tomorrow which struggle to probably get out of the 40's 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Pretty scattered tho... he might wind up dry (although I would not bet on it) It’s mainly virga with lots of dry air. Bright overcast kind of deal with breaks of blue in AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 May even see some grauple tomorrow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’s mainly virga with lots of dry air. Bright overcast kind of deal with breaks of blue in AM lots of dry air??? the column is pretty saturated across the region tomorrow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: May even see some grauple tomorrow I just think it is amazing that in a hockey-sticking warm CC era and under solar max sun ...this air mass wins. The Euro just can't modify the air and still undeterred, plumes sub 850 mb air down as far as Dayton OH... Basically, zero demonstration for physically atoning for seasonal change/climate - I don't know how much of that is error ... I mentioned this a little bit ago ... - this is the 5th or 6th of these gem-like days that parlayed out of the look these models have been dooming us with since about April 10. So, it does seem there is a bit of an emergent reveal that the models are overly pessimistic and perhaps failing on the cool/misery/ rhea side. hmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: lots of dry air??? the column is pretty saturated across the region tomorrow There’s a ton of low level dry air. Look at dews . One of those you look to the NW and see what looks like rain shaft, but on the ground it’s sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a ton of low level dry air. Look at dews you can't just use dewpoints alone to determine whether an airmass is dry...you gotta relate it to temperature. Dewpoints tomorrow look to be into the lower 40's...now if the temperatures were 60's...70's+ yeah it would be pretty damn dry but with temperatures into the 50's...it's not that dry...while there is some dewpoint depression there it's pretty moist in the llvls and mlvls. don't think there will be much virga tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I just think it is amazing that in a hockey-sticking warm CC era and under solar max sun ...this air mass wins. The Euro just can't modify the air and still put sub 850 mb plumes down as far as Dayton OH... with zero demonstration of physically atoning for seasonal change - I don't know how much of that is error ... But I gotta say - I mentioned this a little bit ago ... - this is the 5th or 6th of these gem-like days that parlayed out of the look these models have been dooming us with since about April 10. So, it seems there a bit of an emergent reveal that the models are overly pessimistic and perhaps failing on the cool/misery/ rhea side. hmm We've actually seen a few times this spring these cold air masses winning out...you would expect stronger sun angle and mixing to compensate but that hasn't been the case. Think maybe we have just had trouble mixing in these situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: you can't just use dewpoints alone to determine whether an airmass is dry...you gotta relate it to temperature. Dewpoints tomorrow look to be into the lower 40's...now if the temperatures were 60's...70's+ yeah it would be pretty damn dry but with temperatures into the 50's...it's not that dry...while there is some dewpoint depression there it's pretty moist in the llvls and mlvls. don't think there will be much virga tomorrow. Sounding lapse rates are underrated, too - I've see 48 dps with nickle hail and multi-pulsed CG bombs shattering pine trunks because it was like -40 C at 500 mb or something. Okay ...so 'zaggeratin' a little but you get my point. Also, llv DPs don't mean shit as much as cloud/condensation source DP ... deep layer "wet" layers mix down as the morning sounding starts to diurnally tumble/mix. Plus, entrained wetter layers where is elevated conditional/marginal instability ..these factors can drive a sun 38 F decoupled DP ...to a 50 F core at 2:30 pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We've actually seen a few times this spring these cold air masses winning out...you would expect stronger sun angle and mixing to compensate but that hasn't been the case. Think maybe we have just had trouble mixing in these situations? What? It’s been a beautiful mild to warm spring overall since Morch. We had 2 cold shots that moved in and out in 24-36 hours. The cool air masses have underperformed. Yesterday and today great examples 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What? It’s been a beautiful mild to warm spring overall since Morch. We had 2 cold shots that moved in and out in 24-36 hours. The cool air masses have underperformed. Yesterday and today great examples Not debating that. There were a few days where we had cold airmasses where you would have expected temperatures to end up a bit warmer...there was one day (maybe in april) where even with full sun we struggled a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We've actually seen a few times this spring these cold air masses winning out...you would expect stronger sun angle and mixing to compensate but that hasn't been the case. Think maybe we have just had trouble mixing in these situations? Maybe ...yeah, mixing this, ...weird anomalies that... Just rolling snake eyes at crappes There's probably some feeding of 'bad luck' The thing is, it's not really showing too well at the last 45 days of temperatures. I mean April finished above normal despite having an [ overzealously forecast] snow event in its midst. And May was modestly positive through D4 - though I haven't seen 5 or 6 in the till/means just yet. Certainly doesn't "seem" like it's been warmer than normal in that way . I'm wondering why the huge disparity between expectation and truth ...or, if we have just been dealt a kind of sinister bad luck of only being cold and shitty like ... only when we can feel it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Looks pretty paltry to me... mabe 0.10-0.20" for him...less for me still rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Maybe ...yeah, mixing this, ...weird anomalies that... Just rolling snake eyes at crappes There's probably some feeding of 'bad luck' The thing is, it's not really showing too well at the last 45 days of temperatures. I mean April finished above normal despite having an [ overzealously forecast] snow event in its midst. And May was modestly positive through D4 - though I haven't seen 5 or 6 in the till/means just yet. Certainly doesn't "seem" like it's been warmer than normal in that way . I'm wondering why the huge disparity between expectation and truth ...or, if we have just been dealt a kind of sinister bad luck of only being cold and shitty like ... only when we can feel it. Lol What I would really like to see is data going back say over the last 50 years showing the number of like 60+, 70+, 80+ days during the months of March, April, and May and see if there has been an increase in the number of days for these occurrences over the years (I think we know the answer to this but would be nice to see). it seems no matter hat transpires over the course of the month...at the end of it we end up above-average in terms of temperatures. We probably could have gotten a 2' blizzard April 17 and below-average temperatures for 4-days centered around that date...and the month would still finish AN. The thing is our warm days...seem to overperform and by several-pus degrees and of course we have nights where temperatures remain above-average (which this is what seems to be driving the AN times...warmer overnight lows as opposed to daytime highs). The only way we really hit climo is getting these below-average airmasses and we somehow still manage to spike to climo values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: still rain.. don't pee on my leg and tell me it's raining 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 Tomorrow is a crap day destructive sunshine with showers and chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 31 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: still rain.. Yeah... could happen. NAM and HRRR are sometime bullish on precip... and both show nada pretty close to him... coin flip for rain or no rain for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Tomorrow is a crap day destructive sunshine with showers and chilly Nah... we will need to be installing for Summah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What? It’s been a beautiful mild to warm spring overall since Morch. We had 2 cold shots that moved in and out in 24-36 hours. The cool air masses have underperformed. Yesterday and today great examples yeah I'd agree with this. Most of the rain events have underperformed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: don't pee on my leg and tell me it's raining I wish I could lift mine that high, either one. As always 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah... could happen. NAM and HRRR are sometime bullish on precip... and both show nada pretty close to him... coin flip for rain or no rain for him Funny thing is I’ll not be home tomorrow during the day . All for naught Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 So much for the Sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Funny thing is I’ll not be home tomorrow during the day . All for naught Your Davis tells all...lol Soccer tourneys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: What I would really like to see is data going back say over the last 50 years showing the number of like 60+, 70+, 80+ days during the months of March, April, and May and see if there has been an increase in the number of days for these occurrences over the years (I think we know the answer to this but would be nice to see). it seems no matter hat transpires over the course of the month...at the end of it we end up above-average in terms of temperatures. We probably could have gotten a 2' blizzard April 17 and below-average temperatures for 4-days centered around that date...and the month would still finish AN. The thing is our warm days...seem to overperform and by several-pus degrees and of course we have nights where temperatures remain above-average (which this is what seems to be driving the AN times...warmer overnight lows as opposed to daytime highs). The only way we really hit climo is getting these below-average airmasses and we somehow still manage to spike to climo values. Bingo - and absolutely ... That's really been the ball game - when it "could be warm" ... verification goes way above - and we're not talking just busting warm side. Like seriously and creepy skewed. C'mon people... I've seen it nudge 80 in f'um February - get a grip and a fear... Lol... bunning it a little there for fun, but a 30+ high temp - ...heh. It seems immoral how little we have 'awed' in that just because of this predilection for snow and cold preoccupation of user compulsion in here. Ha ha, it's like asking the asylum to render an objective concern - hahahaha... I'm kidding ... but, it's like what my grandfather used to say about the Democrats - he was mid last century pedigree of Republican: " you give the bastards an inch and they'll take a mile" ...LOL The atmosphere has been doing that - the models give an inch of warm bias and we're buried under skyscraper temperatures. If a model outlook offers any sort of higher confidence warm patina to an outlooked synoptic complexion, you're all but guaranteed a 20 + departure. Boom. Bank it, smoke it do what you gotta do, but you're wearing shorts and t-shirts in February. In very short concise terms: Point departures of exceedingly large values are markedly increased in frequency since 2000. Monthly means may be getting weighted upward. I mean ... this is all predicated on the assumption of fact - but... I can assure you with 100% confidence.. .in the first 30 years of my life, I never ever saw 70 in Jan or Feb... Now, exposure to that sort of antic has me almost sort of use to it. Interesting... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now