CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 52 here. Was chilly today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 I love this weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Nothing says Memorial Day weekend like -5C 850s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Nothing says Memorial Day weekend like -5C 850s. There’s no sign of sustained heat in the LR either. We were told summer was here months ago but besides this past Saturday and Sunday, I haven’t seen it. Cooler but dry is a bit odd too. Usually when it’s a cool spring, it’s wet...although that can change in a hurry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 45⁰ The main forecast concern is the potential for a few strong to severe t-storms in the afternoon in the interior. Mid level shortwave will be moving across Gt Lakes with a pre-frontal trough moving into SNE in the afternoon which will be a focus for convection. Decent instability develops in the interior with CAPES 1000-1500 J/kg and increasing wind field results in deep layer shear 30-35 kt supporting storm organization and potential severe weather. CAMs are showing some broken line segments moving into interior SNE during afternoon with damaging wind being the main threat. However, forecast soundings also show decent turning in the lowest 3km in the CT valley with effective SRH 100-200 m2/s2, aided by backed low level flow and there is favorable 0-3km CAPE, so can't rule out an isolated tornado with any discrete storms. Will continue to monitor with later forecasts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 After Wed , we'll it was a nice summer while it lasted. Looks like a wet cool pattern will develop with some COC days thrown in. Memorial day is the pick of the 3 day weekend. Coastal Friday with GFS UK EPS wettest with Euro a glancing blow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Next week is back up near or over 80 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 After Wed , we'll it was a nice summer while it lasted. Looks like a wet cool pattern will develop with some COC days thrown in. Memorial day is the pick of the 3 day weekend. Coastal Friday with GFS UK EPS wettest with Euro a glancing blow. It won't rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 16 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: It won't rain. . It’s not a chilly wet pattern. Next week looks near to slightly AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not a chilly wet pattern. Next week looks near to slightly AN Potential for substantial rain on Friday afternoon into Saturday morning as low-pressure passes New England to the south. This will be followed by cooler temperatures for the holiday weekend. Warmer temperatures early next week but with the possibility of clouds and showery precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Next week is back up near or over 80 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not seeing anything showing your cold and wet pattern next week and beyond. But I also don’t see any 90+ until 2nd week of June either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Probably a glancing blow Friday and a cool weekend. 49 here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not seeing anything showing your cold and wet pattern next week and beyond. But I also don’t see any 90+ until 2nd week of June either Well it’s not going to be 40s with rain but if your looking for that summer dewy heat you’ve been saying was here to stay, since March...you’ll be disappointed. You Gotta admit though, the coc-y spring has been very enjoyable, yes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Euro is kinda alone for Fri night in SNE. Ukie, GFS, and GGEM are pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well it’s not going to be 40s with rain but if your looking for that summer dewy heat you’ve been saying was here to stay, since March...you’ll be disappointed. You Gotta admit though, the coc-y spring has been very enjoyable, yes? It’s been a great spring . No cold drizzly days. Only 1-2 brief cool shots . Tons of sun. Only thing that’s not good is the overall Stein . It’s officially in top 8 warmest and warmest since 2012. I saw a stat yesterday . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Temp bottomed out at 39 last night. I'm sure Alex was near freezing if not below in his radiator spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s been a great spring . No cold drizzly days. Only 1-2 brief cool shots . Tons of sun. Only thing that’s not good is the overall Stein . It’s officially in top 8 warmest and warmest since 2012. I saw a stat yesterday . Fake warmth with higher mins but it’s been a great spring, agree. Could use some rain as the pollen and dry lawn is making my kids allergies act up like I’ve never seen before. I’m not sure what the pollen stats say but it’s pretty filthy around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 6z GFS looked drier and I'll take the under on Ukie QPF with a low that far south this time of year. Gonna need that low to come north. I hope it does drop good rains, but I have my doubts around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 14 hours ago, powderfreak said: True but it’s not a completely linear relationship, no? You still need forcing and a way to wring that moisture out. In the long term you can see it happen with the new 30-year normals when some spots gained like 6” annual water. But it still can come in cycles. Being warmer doesn’t mean the precip comes evenly spread either... maybe we end up with more cold season water and less in warm season? I could see some distribution changes... maybe less frequent precip events but when they do happen they are bigger water makers? All interesting to consider. Yes....doesn't mean the distribution is even. I also agree that it could create some barriers with respect to cyclogenesis due to shearing/decreased gradient, but overall, its a wetter planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 13 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah there are lots of variables. In general warmer air can hold more water vapor, but then you need to consider if there are any hemispheric changes to ridging and trough anomalies. Maybe some areas get drier, and some of the typical dry areas get a little wetter. Who knows. I don't think areas near the ocean would get drier...and while there may be less overall significant cyclogenesis, there will be more whoppers, which will still account for a net gain in precipitation. As far as a greater percentage coming during the cold season, great, AFAIC.....less wasted QPF on rain outs at Fenway, and more on winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Guest appearance in late May by Ray as he preps his 21-22 winter forecast ! Big snow returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 4:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Best and hottest second only to 2012. Early summer has locked in this year. Gonna be a special one for the heat and dew haters ??? BDL was below average for April and could finish May below average too. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 BDL finished +1.8 for Napril. And May will finish over +1.0 AN Check your facts before spewing Kooky BS nonsense that no one finds funny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why? Why is that the earth can warm, but can't be wetter? If the earth is warming, its going to be wetter...period. Will there be some regression, probably, but toss climo like you do with temps. As I'm sure you know, climatologists are generally predicting more variable wx including bigger precip events and longer dry spells. So instead of (hypothetical) June having 6 days with significant RA totaling 4", we get 2 deluge days 3 weeks apart, totaling 5", much of which runs off rather than soaking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 55 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Temp bottomed out at 39 last night. I'm sure Alex was near freezing if not below in his radiator spot. 36 here, 3° milder than yesterday. With the cool airmass this coming weekend, a clear calm night might be frosty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Fake warmth with higher mins but it’s been a great spring, agree. Could use some rain as the pollen and dry lawn is making my kids allergies act up like I’ve never seen before. I’m not sure what the pollen stats say but it’s pretty filthy around here. Tree pollen counts were very high last week and moderate to high this week. That’s for MA but probably similar for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 6z GFS looked drier and I'll take the under on Ukie QPF with a low that far south this time of year. Gonna need that low to come north. I hope it does drop good rains, but I have my doubts around here. Yeah.... take the under recently on rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2021 Author Share Posted May 25, 2021 There is certainly room for the first week of June to be quite warm. There are no strong signals which really making glaring which direction we will go but it's going to be a battle of being influenced by western ATL low and ridging to our west...but you have a huge dome of +15C to +16C 850 temps well into the OV and TN Valley and it won't take much to get these into our region. the first few days look quite cool but we could warm up very quickly and probably even see some humidity too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 37 minutes ago, tamarack said: As I'm sure you know, climatologists are generally predicting more variable wx including bigger precip events and longer dry spells. So instead of (hypothetical) June having 6 days with significant RA totaling 4", we get 2 deluge days 3 weeks apart, totaling 5", much of which runs off rather than soaking in. I agree with that. In the aggregate, precip will be greater, but it won't be as evenly distributed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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