kdxken Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like one of those deals where once the sun gets high enough it burns some of that mid level stuff away . You can already see a bunch of breaks. So maybe it averages out partly sunny by afternoon. Gotta be a reason why hi res all showing 88-91 Already starting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like one of those deals where once the sun gets high enough it burns some of that mid level stuff away . You can already see a bunch of breaks. So maybe it averages out partly sunny by afternoon. Gotta be a reason why hi res all showing 88-91 Sun doesn’t really burn off mid level stuff. It’s gonna need to break up to be 90. It will be warm regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 I won’t hit 90 but today will be the hottest since 2020 for me I think. Then tomorrow we do it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sun doesn’t really burn off mid level stuff. It’s gonna need to break up to be 90. It will be warm regardless. Tips been saying it’s been happening the last few weeks. Think even yesterday he mentioned it with those early clouds that melted away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 There is also a bit of smoke in the air from fires That won’t burn off but should t be a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Meanwhile temps in low 80’s down here with 15-20mph steady winds causing Stein like conditions in the rainy season and wildfires just to my north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Sunny here atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tips been saying it’s been happening the last few weeks. Think even yesterday he mentioned it with those early clouds that melted away It will break up a bit. Just not totally sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Time to prep the Walmart 50$ pool 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Memorial Day Weekend looking a lot more like Easter weekend on guidance. Euro conceding to the much colder and wetter gfs. Big changes needed to turn that around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Now we sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 2 hours ago, kdxken said: Already starting here. Why are you stalking him with creepy posts like this? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 53 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Memorial Day Weekend looking a lot more like Easter weekend on guidance. Euro conceding to the much colder and wetter gfs. Big changes needed to turn that around. Mm... at 168 - 216 hours out in time, 'big changes' is a relative phrase, I suppose - Short version: Personally, there is no way I can trust the models are capable of handling those delicate features and their evolution, through that deep period of time - . Longer version/angry rant: It can happen. But first off, in a more operations sense ...about 3/4 of the GEFs 00z individual members do not support that operational GFS's pessimism with the same dogged determination as though NCEP ( as usual by the way...) is seemingly actually parameterizing its model to rasp heights toward cold February beyond 3 days always regardless of Celestial mechanics. - tfwiw... Imho, it wouldn't take "big changes" because the features being toted along by the Euro/GGEM blend ( with the GFS along for the ride as circus clown..) are very fragile from what I'm seeing. They carry just a single closed contoured feature through a nebular gradient, and use said weak entity to impact all this wet havoc along the I-95 to corridor from roughly Jersey to Maine... Heh - I'm not sure I buy that. It just looks disproportionately violently forcing for such a weak impulse. But also the bigger coup de gras for me is that ... normal vicissitudes of chaos vs model skill? in order for the runs to maintain fragile structures out in time, requires that their skill at predicting/emerging nuance proportionally drop down to a discrete level where they are just not capable of performing. I mean, in this case ..that 570 dm single closed contour sneaking along at this range is like tethering a butterfly at the end of a thousand mile quantum thread. It's likely to have a bit of an uncertainty trajectory at the end of that string. That's why big huge historic events of any kind show up in models early, is because their physical presence in the atmosphere are that dominating; so that they can absorb chaotic influences emerging along a normal constructive and destructive sea of influences. It's getting philosophical and unlikely to be read do to word count meets with the shimmering virtuosity of Twit-western Civility ... but, I've often thought that every event that emerges in the deeper time ranges of these guidance ...all have an acceleration potential. But predicting the "destructive" nuances, culminating over time, and whether they will out-weigh the "constructive" nuances, ..dictates if the acceleration - if the system will increase or decrease its 'systemic weight' in the circulation as it nears in time. That's the gist of why these models have a theoretical skill limite - because all the math and electrons are just timber of gods voice - not that asshole's motivation. and also... what we learn in as undergrads that there really is no way to actually forecast chaos - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 It'll be an interesting route to the top temperatures around the area - see who ends up where. I looked around at post-guidance ...seems the upper level clouds ( judging by the sat presentation and loop ) are more the ceiling issue ...not mid level - not that it matters..just what I'm observing. That said, the > 500 mb RH handling was not particularly good in the guidance - some had it ..but didn't in all cycles ... so it's dubious. But here were are - Where we are is not horrible for heating. It's taxing the ability, no doubt! But the day-glow lamp sky does heat some. It may thin a little as the sounding gets warped by the sun heating cloud particles/physics over those ceiling levels... and that'll help. The wick is very primed though...doesn't take a lot of radiation input to set the temp rising. We are 80 here averaging home stations within a Ayer, and KFIT Meso west/UA is 79 ...(edit: actually 81 now) It will be tediously nerdy to see if the index finger rule of "ten after ten" can apply under a milk sky but fun for us tedious nerds haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm... at 168 - 216 hours out in time, 'big changes' is a relative phrase, I suppose - Short version: Personally, there is no way I can trust the models are capable of handling those delicate features and their evolution, through that deep period of time - . Longer version/angry rant: It can happen. But first off, in a more operations sense ...about 3/4 of the GEFs 00z individual members do not support that operational GFS's pessimism with the same dogged determination as though NCEP ( as usual by the way...) is seemingly actually parameterizing its model to rasp heights toward cold February beyond 3 days always regardless of Celestial mechanics. - tfwiw... Imho, it wouldn't take "big changes" because the features being toted along by the Euro/GGEM blend ( with the GFS along for the ride as circus clown..) are very fragile from what I'm seeing. They carry just a single closed contoured feature through a nebular gradient, and use said weak entity to impact all this wet havoc along the I-95 to corridor from roughly Jersey to Maine... Heh - I'm not sure I buy that. It just looks disproportionately violently forcing for such a weak impulse. But also the bigger coup de gras for me is that ... normal vicissitudes of chaos vs model skill? in order for the runs to maintain fragile structures out in time, requires that their skill at predicting/emerging nuance proportionally drop down to a discrete level where they are just not capable of performing. I mean, in this case ..that 570 dm single closed contour sneaking along at this range is like tethering a butterfly at the end of a thousand mile quantum thread. It's likely to have a bit of an uncertainty trajectory at the end of that string. That's why big huge historic events of any kind show up in models early, is because their physical presence in the atmosphere are that dominating; so that they can absorb chaotic influences emerging along a normal constructive and destructive sea of influences. It's getting philosophical and unlikely to be read do to word count meets with the shimmering virtuosity of Twit-western Civility ... but, I've often thought that every event that emerges in the deeper time ranges of these guidance ...all have an acceleration potential. But predicting the "destructive" nuances, culminating over time, and whether they will out-weigh the "constructive" nuances, ..dictates if the acceleration - if the system will increase or decrease its 'systemic weight' in the circulation as it nears in time. That's the gist of why these models have a theoretical skill limite - because all the math and electrons are just timber of gods voice - not that asshole's motivation. and also... what we learn in as undergrads that there really is no way to actually forecast chaos - lol It looks like 70’s and sun Saturday. Partly /mostly cloudy Sunday with maybe a shower with warm Front passage and a severe risk Monday in warm sector. Not sure where the cloudy cold rainy look was derived unless he was using op GFS.The Ens don’t look like that. The other thing that could happen is the high is so strong it suppresses everything SW and we end up three nice days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 All guidance looks poopy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Heavy heavy pollen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 86 here despite the clouds. KFIT leading the pack at 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Memorial Day weekend, especially the first half looks like it's on shaky ground on some current guidance, we needto come through in the clutch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 86.2⁰/62⁰, feels like summer out there today Have been "steined" here for a while now, dry as a bone out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Opening up to disrespect and 'blaming the messenger' as though he/she is merely making it up ...but every home station within 5 miles of Ayer is 89 to 91 and KFIT is reporting 90 as a high... So, shaving the max at these home stations for standard 'rube calibration' puts the day's high in contention of making 90. By the way, we've been > 80% insolation here for 3 hours now despite the polish on the hi res vis imagery ...although a bit of denser band is coming over now.. Also... season's last snow finally upon us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 83/59 Feels worse today with the sun and slight humidity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Opening up to disrespect and 'blaming the messenger' as though he/she is merely making it up ...but every home station within 5 miles of Ayer is 89 to 91 and KFIT is reporting 90 as a high... So, shaving the max at these home stations for standard 'rube calibration' puts the day's high in contention of making 90. By the way, we've been > 80% insolation here for 3 hours now despite the polish on the hi res vis imagery ...although a bit of denser band is coming over now.. Also... season's last snow finally upon us: Sometimes those thin mid/upper level decks make it worse. Plenty of shortwave rad makes in through, but the longwave IR gets redirected back down to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 First 90 since August imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 85.3F here so far for the high. Clouds. As Scott said the humidity is more noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 BOX: At 1:32 this afternoon, Bradley International Airport hit 90°F for the first time this year, making it the first of our climate sites to meet such benchmark in 2021. The last time BDL saw 90 was 8/25/2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said: BOX: At 1:32 this afternoon, Bradley International Airport hit 90°F for the first time this year, making it the first of our climate sites to meet such benchmark in 2021. The last time BDL saw 90 was 8/25/2020 AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 2 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said: Memorial Day weekend, especially the first half looks like it's on shaky ground on some current guidance, we needto come through in the clutch. Looks fine. Decent weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 BDL +.3 before today, up up up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Spanks45 said: 86.2⁰/62⁰, feels like summer out there today Have been "steined" here for a while now, dry as a bone out there 85.8/61. Felt muggy at T Ball compared the coc spring we’ve had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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