Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 51 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Looks like BTV didn’t get below 70F on the hourly temps last night. The nocturnal southerly jet in the valley there cranked again. Very Caribbean like weather there with increasing south winds overnight on these warm nights. Dews in the 40s though with very high min, just stays really well mixed all night. I can't prove this but ...I think that weak backdoor boundary that pivoted into a N-S orientation and moved to a position near Albany .. is still there albeit very diffused, perhaps below coherency so WPC analysis isn't seeing it.. The N end of that boundary has move back E and the S end is still smeared over CT.... and it's hung from BDL-GOM or so. This back building cloud pattern that's stealing our warm day here is casting the allusion on satellite of flopping over said "imaginary" axis ...probably where said front "doesn't exist," that sensation in the butt along that axis ...somehow sorta kinda denies WPC's current surface analysis - lol. ******* The 'over-top' heat events are becoming May dependable ... The cause for them is related to the reason October snow events have increased frequency spanning recent decade(s)... I can't prove this other than 'educated conjecture,' either, but it appear to be caused by seasonal procession in the autumns, and seasonal lag in springs. I know why the climate is behaving this way - yet again... I can't prove it from here either but it is what it is... sparing a dissertation no one will read ... [ imagine a menagerie of vaguely intelligible multi syllabic prose here ] Conclusion: I therefore predict above the 1900 to 2000 year's worth of climatology-based probability, that this October will again feature snow...or an air mass definitively capable of doing so; and that next May, if there is a not a pattern where it is scalar hotter than DCA and PHL ... BTV will average warmer relative to climatology comparing -... Bank it ...until such time as the polar regions warms up oh say ... 20 C and the gradient of the hemisphere finally stops sending commercial airlines over seas at 10% the speed of light - .. the year 2070 and a clean 150 years ahead of rationalizing winter brain apprehension to admit winters are dying at mid latitudes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The 'over-top' heat events are becoming May dependency ... The cause for them is antithetically similar to the reason for October snow event, increased frequency spanning recent decade(s)... Every May it seems we get the over-the-top heat. And it happens fast... like as soon as any semblance of cold vacates Quebec and Ontario, it’s almost instantly in the 80s. Could be snowing one week, then bam the gates of Hades open up and heat goes from Midwest up into N. Quebec. Last year was the big deal where it snowed May 11, then was setting all-time ASOS records in mid-90s a week later it seemed. Even summits MWN and Mansfield were setting all-time high temps after a frigid first two weeks of May. Today... already 80F at spots like BML, MVL, BTV while BDL, ORH, CON are upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Every May it seems we get the over-the-top heat. And it happens fast... like as soon as any semblance of cold vacates Quebec and Ontario, it’s almost instantly in the 80s. Could be snowing one week, then bam the gates of Hades open up and heat goes from Midwest up into N. Quebec. Last year was the big deal where it snowed May 11, then was setting all-time ASOS records in mid-90s a week later it seemed. Even summits MWN and Mansfield were setting all-time high temps after a frigid first two weeks of May. Today... already 80F at spots like BML, MVL, BTV while BDL, ORH, CON are upper 60s. It's certainly rather intriguing. One thing I would really like to know too is if we're (we're as in climo stations) hitting temperature thresholds of 80, 85, 90+ much easier now compared to historical averages (meaning with lower 925, 850, 800mb temperatures) or maybe we are just achieving stronger mixing. Actually what would be cool to know is are we averaging warmer 925/850/800 temperatures overtime...when assessing climate change all the focus is on surface temperature anomalies but is this a product of a lessened ozone layer resulting in greater shortwave radiation, a product of a warmer low-level airmass, both, or other factors. The low-level airmass aspect could be quite intriguing when taking into account the origins of these airmasses. If the Southwest/southern Plains region is experiencing earlier heat and big heat...well it's more likely we would see the same...or at least a higher probability for some type of big heat (whether it be brief or longer duration) very early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 40 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Every May it seems we get the over-the-top heat. And it happens fast... like as soon as any semblance of cold vacates Quebec and Ontario, it’s almost instantly in the 80s. Could be snowing one week, then bam the gates of Hades open up and heat goes from Midwest up into N. Quebec. Last year was the big deal where it snowed May 11, then was setting all-time ASOS records in mid-90s a week later it seemed. Even summits MWN and Mansfield were setting all-time high temps after a frigid first two weeks of May. Today... already 80F at spots like BML, MVL, BTV while BDL, ORH, CON are upper 60s. There were clouds. Now full sun so it’s Katy bar the door on tenps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: There were clouds. Now full sun so it’s Katy bar the door on tenps. Yeah up to 70F at BDL at 11:30. It’s trying down there. Definitely some warmer temps up north this afternoon on a lot of progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah up to 70F at BDL at 11:30. It’s trying down there. Definitely some warmer temps up north this afternoon on a lot of progs. It's being exaggerated by the cloud back-building thing as I was describing... that factor appears to be vacating albeit slowly. We are 74 here in town in Ayer despite the clouds... we won't get to BTV competitively ...but we'll probably be 80 ... Sat trends are struggling to disperse but are doing so at a slow rate of decay... The day glow sky is warm to the face so there's 'some' insolation getting through lol... But, the sounding would of had us 83 by now - looks like a clean 10 F stolen thus far ...and it's really a narrow band at this point. In fact, KFIT is 9 mi by crow, sky opened up there and they bounced to 79 so fast it may be 80 or 81 by the time I'm done typing this run-on sentence - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Looks like the mountain valley sites of MVL here and BML over in N.NH leading the way with 84s at noon. Montreal also coming in at 84F. Going to be very close to 90F again it seems if it's getting mid-80s by lunchtime at those sites. 80F up here at 1,500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 GFS wants to sneak in some EML air towards the end of the month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Looks like the mountain valley sites of MVL here and BML over in N.NH leading the way with 84s at noon. Montreal also coming in at 84F. Going to be very close to 90F again it seems if it's getting mid-80s by lunchtime at those sites. 80F up here at 1,500ft. BML 89 lol 83° here…hottest of the season. CON only 82°. We blaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: BML 89 lol 83° here…hottest of the season. CON only 82°. We blaze. Starting to see some high clouds or filtered sun... MVL bouncing 84-86F. Thought we’d get 88-90F for sure. We’ll see. Looks like BML 90F now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Starting to see some high clouds or filtered sun... MVL bouncing 84-86F. Thought we’d get 88-90F for sure. We’ll see. Looks like BML 90F now . Making the Rev jelly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 84 KFIT to Ayer along Rt poopie ... Big bounce happened about an hour back.... Clouds held us down and it was as though the atmosphere was spring loaded - boinnng Also, DPs 52 to 55 is technically not supposed to be humid but today's 84 feels decidedly different than it did two days back along with 37 DP .. no question. Looks like I was overly pessimistic about the recovery today - heh. I mean it may yet be 87 here at this rate ... we typically don't max until 4:30 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 I bet tomorrow is uncomfortable - Acclimation is down yet - we haven't seen very high DPs ...actually, scratch that - we haven't seen ANY appreciable DPs. We're up over 50 already, and it is noticeable when over 80 ... In fact it is 85/55 around town here. I could imagine home-stations 60-64 DPs tomorrow, while it's 91 hover temp over driveways and patios. May seem abrupt - Not the hottest we've seen by a long stretch - no... but, it is early to do so before June 1 ... and, no one is used to that ... Today I think shows/warns of the heat potential to this air mass kind of sneaking up..? We were 72 at noon here under this cloud shadow - it peeled away and we bounced 12 in an hour! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 KFIT 86/54 now Feels and smells of deep summer here. And yes ... summer air has a distinct aroma to it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Summah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 84 in Randolph. Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Yeah, May is apparently NNE’s time to shine with heat the past several years. No idea what the actuals are but looking at 5-min data the maxes so far: BML... 91F BTV... 90F MVL... 90F MPV... 90F HIE... 88F SLK... 86F That 1500-2000ft band seems to be mid-80s with 1000ft or lower around 90F. Car said 84F leaving the mountain and hit 88F in center of town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 wow only 75 here on the CT coast similar to yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 84 around here today after 86 yesterday. Warm but no '90s and this is pretty much the hottest place in Connecticut in this setup. Edit:. I do see some PWS stations at 86-87 in the lower elevations of the Farmington valley in Northern Connecticut but further west than here with a bit less clouds and ocean influence this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 87F Car thermo read 91F through Tilton...88-89F around Winnisquam. Then 91F again on the way back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 BML 91F 1P1 89.2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: It's certainly rather intriguing. One thing I would really like to know too is if we're (we're as in climo stations) hitting temperature thresholds of 80, 85, 90+ much easier now compared to historical averages (meaning with lower 925, 850, 800mb temperatures) or maybe we are just achieving stronger mixing. Actually what would be cool to know is are we averaging warmer 925/850/800 temperatures overtime...when assessing climate change all the focus is on surface temperature anomalies but is this a product of a lessened ozone layer resulting in greater shortwave radiation, a product of a warmer low-level airmass, both, or other factors. The low-level airmass aspect could be quite intriguing when taking into account the origins of these airmasses. If the Southwest/southern Plains region is experiencing earlier heat and big heat...well it's more likely we would see the same...or at least a higher probability for some type of big heat (whether it be brief or longer duration) very early on. Anecdotal data from my Fort Kent days, particularly May 76-79 for contrast: May 7, 1976: 1.5" snow in 45 minutes as I was tilling the garden May 22-24, 1977: 93/93/92 on 22-24. CAR had 96/95/94 those days, hottest 3-day period. May 27-29, 1978: 95/90/92. (CAR "only" 92/89/89) May 1 had 0.6" SN. May 9, 1979: 87°, equally anomalous to the hottest days in May 77, 78, though only a 1-day heat spike. Also had 85+ in 81, 82, 85. Hit 85+ in 8 of 13 Mays (1986-98) in Gardiner, including 92 in 1992, just 1° below our hottest there. I don't think heat spikes in May are a new thing. First year I kept records, 1962 in NNJ, we reached 99 on the 19th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Looks like 79 will be the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Cooling off on a hot day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Crazy that’s so hot up in NNE. Only 71° here in the urban heat island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Had a robin nest in the garage door motor in my garage this spring. 3 babies hatched and eventually flew off earlier this week. I noticed mama robin coming back in there the past 2 days. This afternoon she was in the same nest and panting badly. After she left for a bit I climbed up the ladder and sure enough, she has laid another egg. So she has chosen the same spot for clutch #2. The difference this time is it's going to be a torch in there for a week. I hope she leaves frequently and just lets the heat of the garage incubate the eggs for her. I have no heat venting at the apex of the roof either...brutal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, tamarack said: Anecdotal data from my Fort Kent days, particularly May 76-79 for contrast: May 7, 1976: 1.5" snow in 45 minutes as I was tilling the garden May 22-24, 1977: 93/93/92 on 22-24. CAR had 96/95/94 those days, hottest 3-day period. May 27-29, 1978: 95/90/92. (CAR "only" 92/89/89) May 1 had 0.6" SN. May 9, 1979: 87°, equally anomalous to the hottest days in May 77, 78, though only a 1-day heat spike. Also had 85+ in 81, 82, 85. Hit 85+ in 8 of 13 Mays (1986-98) in Gardiner, including 92 in 1992, just 1° below our hottest there. I don't think heat spikes in May are a new thing. First year I kept records, 1962 in NNJ, we reached 99 on the 19th. Very cool! Thanks for sharing. Love reading these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 49 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah, May is apparently NNE’s time to shine with heat the past several years. No idea what the actuals are but looking at 5-min data the maxes so far: BML... 91F BTV... 90F MVL... 90F MPV... 90F HIE... 88F SLK... 86F That 1500-2000ft band seems to be mid-80s with 1000ft or lower around 90F. Car said 84F leaving the mountain and hit 88F in center of town. KLEB also up to 91 https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLEB.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 5 hours ago, powderfreak said: Every May it seems we get the over-the-top heat. And it happens fast... like as soon as any semblance of cold vacates Quebec and Ontario, it’s almost instantly in the 80s. Could be snowing one week, then bam the gates of Hades open up and heat goes from Midwest up into N. Quebec. Last year was the big deal where it snowed May 11, then was setting all-time ASOS records in mid-90s a week later it seemed. Even summits MWN and Mansfield were setting all-time high temps after a frigid first two weeks of May. Today... already 80F at spots like BML, MVL, BTV while BDL, ORH, CON are upper 60s. If we’re lucky, this will be the high water mark for heat for us this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, mreaves said: If we’re lucky, this will be the high water mark for heat for us this year. It wouldn’t be the first time. Last year’s highest was also that ridiculous May heatwave where even like SLK was 93F or 95F. BTV and CAR hit like 95-97? Much nicer up here but still mid-summer heat. Feels 80F even at over 3,000ft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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