powderfreak Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 4:25 PM, dendrite said: HRW-FV3 Pivotal has it too Expand So the new HREF is now more GFS based instead of the old that was NAM based is how I read it? “All HiresW-FV3 domains are initialized from a 6 h old cycle of the Global Forecast System (GFS). Previously the HiresW-NMMB utilized North American Model (NAM) surface conditions for all non-Guam domains, and took atmospheric initial conditions from the Rapid Refresh (RAP) for the CONUS and Puerto Rico domains.” ”The HiresW-FV3 also utilizes a very different set of physics than the HiresW-NMMB being replaced. In both models no parameterized convection is used, but the HiresW-FV3 otherwise is using GFS-style physics, while the HiresW-NMMB utilized NAM- style physics.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 5:15 PM, weathafella said: BOS at 82. Methinks it’s too high based on obs over the past few weeks. Expand It's drifted a little high since early March, but it may not be far off on a day like today. Maybe 80-81? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 5:22 PM, powderfreak said: So the new HREF is now more GFS based instead of the old that was NAM based is how I read it? “All HiresW-FV3 domains are initialized from a 6 h old cycle of the Global Forecast System (GFS). Previously the HiresW-NMMB utilized North American Model (NAM) surface conditions for all non-Guam domains, and took atmospheric initial conditions from the Rapid Refresh (RAP) for the CONUS and Puerto Rico domains.” ”The HiresW-FV3 also utilizes a very different complete piece of shit set of physics than the HiresW-NMMB being replaced. In both models no parameterized convection is used, but the HiresW-FV3 otherwise is using GFS-style physics in an attempt to embarrass NCEP to go the global stage, while the HiresW-NMMB utilized NAM- style physics.” Expand Right - so now American technology has NO viable modeling option 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 5:26 PM, CoastalWx said: It's drifted a little high since early March, but it may not be far off on a day like today. Maybe 80-81? Expand That Winthrop CWOP was 83F. And the Beverly stations 81-82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 5:22 PM, powderfreak said: So the new HREF is now more GFS based instead of the old that was NAM based is how I read it? “All HiresW-FV3 domains are initialized from a 6 h old cycle of the Global Forecast System (GFS). Previously the HiresW-NMMB utilized North American Model (NAM) surface conditions for all non-Guam domains, and took atmospheric initial conditions from the Rapid Refresh (RAP) for the CONUS and Puerto Rico domains.” ”The HiresW-FV3 also utilizes a very different set of physics than the HiresW-NMMB being replaced. In both models no parameterized convection is used, but the HiresW-FV3 otherwise is using GFS-style physics, while the HiresW-NMMB utilized NAM- style physics.” Expand I think it just specifically replaces the old WRF NMM model. I don't think the other hi res models changed to a more gfs based physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 5:27 PM, dendrite said: That Winthrop CWOP was 83F. And the Beverly stations 81-82. Expand I'm 80.3. I could buy 81-12 on the tarmac there. But I have noticed they've been a tad warm it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 80.5 currently, 81.3 hi. Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 Either way, a splendid day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 77* at mi casa with a lot more clouds than sun. Just listed my two window units for sale. No installs for me. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 5:19 PM, dendrite said: A bunch of shoreline stations are 81-83. With WNW flow it may be near legit. Expand Yeah it’s 81 here and their trajectory is lower el from this region. I mean they may have a warm problem with instrumentation at that particular site but today is not a good day to test that assumption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 5:29 PM, CoastalWx said: I think it just specifically replaces the old WRF NMM model. I don't think the other hi res models changed to a more gfs based physics. Expand Ahh you’re right. I see it now. It just replaced that specific NMM family within the larger HREF ecosystem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 5:39 PM, moneypitmike said: 77* at mi casa with a lot more clouds than sun. Just listed my two window units for sale. No installs for me. Expand Lol....new ones are cheap. Kind of like selling an old tv.... Find a relative or friend in need. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 4:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Expand Oh wow 80! Is that a new record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 Sitting at 77°with a brisk northwest wind and no dews. Doesn't get much better... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 What a furnace this weekend on the EURO! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 Euro has a NW flow severe threat on later Sunday....we actually tend to do better on those. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 Spitting rain in duxbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 6:55 PM, kdxken said: Sitting at 77°with a brisk northwest wind and no dews. Doesn't get much better... Expand 80 here but I could do without the steady breeze of pollen chapping my throat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 74/46... breezy... but feeling a bit muggy with dews above freezing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 7:18 PM, powderfreak said: 74/46... breezy... but feeling a bit muggy with dews above freezing. Expand 77/46, can’t beat this. What a large coc stretch we’ve been feeling. We’ll mix in some dewy days over the weekend and but more coc incoming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 7:04 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro has a NW flow severe threat on later Sunday....we actually tend to do better on those. Expand Has a decent look synoptically but very little CAPE as modeled. Will be interesting to see if this changes over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 7:33 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 77/46, can’t beat this. What a large coc stretch we’ve been feeling. We’ll mix in some dewy days over the weekend and but more coc incoming. Expand Doom and Gloomers running for their lives this spring. Lots of sunny days this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 7:46 PM, CT Rain said: Has a decent look synoptically but very little CAPE as modeled. Will be interesting to see if this changes over time. Expand Not holding my breath considering it's New England, but I'd bet the CAPE would look better as we get closer on that synoptic look. It would be useful if the flow at sfc was a little more southerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 8:05 PM, Brian5671 said: Doom and Gloomers running for their lives this spring. Lots of sunny days this year Expand Best and hottest second only to 2012. Early summer has locked in this year. Gonna be a special one for the heat and dew haters 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 8:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Best and hottest second only to 2012. Early summer has locked in this year. Gonna be a special one for the heat and dew haters Expand 2010 was hot too-I remember that one kicking into gear early too... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 7:33 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 77/46, can’t beat this. What a large coc stretch we’ve been feeling. We’ll mix in some dewy days over the weekend and but more coc incoming. Expand Early indications say yes. Meh mild up and we're back to it. Early indications of a cold front pushing through early next week, bringing an end to the early summer regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 8:23 PM, ORH_wxman said: Not holding my breath considering it's New England, but I'd bet the CAPE would look better as we get closer on that synoptic look. It would be useful if the flow at sfc was a little more southerly. Expand Definitely. Was surprised when I saw that look to see so little CAPE explicitly modeled. Worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 On 5/18/2021 at 8:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Best and hottest second only to 2012. Early summer has locked in this year. Gonna be a special one for the heat and dew haters Expand Yeah May has been a scorcher down that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 I think he has been right for March,April and so far in May... For ORH they were +4.4 for March +1.9 for Napril so far +0.4 for May but that will climb quite a bit for the next several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now