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May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
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22 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

200 acre brush fire in Williamstown yesterday, still seems that top layers appear to be pretty dry.

Yeah ...it's hard to separate 'normal' spring fire season from actual deficit drying attributed smoke shows ...

I mean, lawns and fields ..even wide open expansive fields of the Fort Devens grounds, where it's 12 hours of blazer sun all day .. are emerald vivacious healthy green right now. 

U.S. D-M had us in moderate drought,  but have since removed this Rt 2 region...  based no doubt upon recent rain coverage. 

The way to effect the synoptic scales isn't that way - it's the larger integral between Dallas- Chicago east to the east coast ... upwind.  These local variations don't imposed enough thermodynamic force compared to that entire integral.  

It's complex ... there are feed-backs that are more local in scale, because they interact with the atmosphere in short time frames and can register quicker.  But if foliage evaportransporation is factored in synoptics it's not likely a quick response mechanism..  Be it a hypothesis in the first place lol..

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...it's hard to separate 'normal' spring fire season from actual deficit drying attributed smoke shows ...

I mean, lawns and fields ..even wide open expansive fields of the Fort Devens grounds, where it's 12 hours of blazer sun all day .. are emerald vivacious healthy green right now. 

U.S. D-M had us in moderate drought,  but have since removed this Rt 2 region...  based no doubt upon recent rain coverage. 

The way to effect the synoptic scales isn't that way - it's the larger integral between Dallas- Chicago east to the east coast ... upwind.  These local variations don't imposed enough thermodynamic force compared to that entire integral.  

It's complex ... there are feed-backs that are more local in scale, because they interact with the atmosphere in short time frames and can register quicker.  But if foliage evaportransporation is factored in synoptics it's not likely a quick response mechanism..  Be it a hypothesis in the first place lol..

That was my point on the foliage, are we behind on full leaf out compared to other years? I know it’s usually in May don’t don’t remember if early or late. 

 

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1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

That was my point on the foliage, are we behind on full leaf out compared to other years? I know it’s usually in May don’t don’t remember if early or late. 

 

Lol... it's funny - every year I do that, 'it's late' or, 'it's early...' game.   Not sure -

Yet every year ...it seems we go from no foliage on March 20th to full foliage on May 20th ...some how, huh -

 

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26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like we are close to normal or a couple of days ahead. Nothing scientific to back that up, just what I note from previous years. We were way ahead to start May, but then slowed down.

After the early warmth, I thought we were going to be way ahead up here but the cold snap slowed us back down and I think we are about normal.

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35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like we are close to normal or a couple of days ahead. Nothing scientific to back that up, just what I note from previous years. We were way ahead to start May, but then slowed down.

I think the oaks are about a week or so behind where I live. I go by how bad the pollen strings are in the pool. I'm usually finished with that mess by the 10th or so. They're still dropping. 

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like we are close to normal or a couple of days ahead. Nothing scientific to back that up, just what I note from previous years. We were way ahead to start May, but then slowed down.

Yeah I agree with mreaves up here... I thought we’d race out well ahead but things seem pretty normal right now.  Mid-May and buds opening up to 2000ft, but even in the valley it’s not fully leafed out... early green, small leaves.  In March one might have thought we’d have leaves on trees by mid-April, ha.

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Heh...

the GFS wouldn't get above 60 on Saturday with that weird descending bag of confused troughiness ...

the model is just obsessively chomping at the bit to end any warm up, it ends up manufacturing weird carbuncle pressure pattern stuck goop.. What the f is that mess?

Actually though, even the Euro has a tendency to suddenly recede the heights back SW with the ridge deflating some later Friday night - I wonder ... with the PWAT air pooling and stringing out over/N of the Lakes ..we might see an MCS in there?  It's a precarious set up with WNW trajectory at 500 mb, while WSW flow transports increasing DP in the lower troposphere heading into Friday evening...with probably still mid 80s heat.   QPF painted in striated bands southern Ontario through Maine in the Euro may actually end up being a right turning complex... 

If so, that would probably end it - ..

But, 22 our of 33 GEF members are slower to erode/'pop' the ridge back to normal as quickly as the operational, and that's reflected in the nightly PNA  - granted it is 'supposed' to be less useful as May ages toward June, the CPC's concerted -PNA curve(s) argue for it being useful now as it fits.  Anyway, I don't expect us to carry a +2 or 2.5 SD ridge anomaly until September or anything, either...

I agree that 90 was always sort of a wild card.  Even the cleaner, robust panache of the Euro ridge versions only seems to pack +14.5 C 850mbs into the ridge... It's close.  My experience is that 588 dm high balloons tend to bust 850s a tick cool when the days come,...and I could see that ending up 16 and getting it done - sun depending.  Not sure -

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2 hours ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I think the oaks are about a week or so behind where I live. I go by how bad the pollen strings are in the pool. I'm usually finished with that mess by the 10th or so. They're still dropping. 

 

Ash trees are just starting, they're behind everything else here except the two 130+ yr old Mulberries that are always last to leaf out (may be why they've endured)... they otherwise look healthy and are well-established, it could be an early sign of EAB damage :yikes:

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