Dan Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 The hemisphere over on our side is definitely trying to enter a new paradigm... This is a bunner ob but that tropical storm in the Gulf at D8 is classic favorable deep layer and the model can't resist when it has the those mechanics in reach - it sort of backs us into a deep layer -AAM flow regime assumption over America ...Lowering angular momentum favors subtropical ridging and 'cane production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 27 minutes ago, Dan said: I've always loved that Dikembe commercial. Though it really got overplayed during the NCAA tournament this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2021 Author Share Posted May 14, 2021 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The hemisphere over on our side is definitely trying to enter a new paradigm... This is a bunner ob but that tropical storm in the Gulf at D8 is classic favorable deep layer and the model can't resist when it has the those mechanics in reach - it sort of backs us into a deep layer -AAM flow regime assumption over America ...Lowering angular momentum favors subtropical ridging and 'cane production. I just saw that Looks like Louisiana picking up right where they left off in terms of tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Holy crap wow - that's nuts. D7 GGEM It even has a lee side 'heat trough' impression in the isobaric layout from coastal Maine down to Virginia during the afternoon next Friday... might be a 94/lowish DP type of hot day. Oh. ...wait, it's a the GGEM .. heh.. Still fun eye-candy for us summer enthusiasts though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2021 Author Share Posted May 14, 2021 That is one interesting height configuration for next week. Wednesday (on the Euro) could be...HOT. Could be near 90 days at BDL and maybe mid 90's as far north as like EWR. End of the week is interesting too as it looks like another pump poleward in heights at 500, however, the sfc depiction is a little kinky with the isobars indicating shallow backdoor front potential. Also looks like we could see our first Great Plains siggy severe threat of the season too...which has strong PNA support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 But then again... mmm that -PNA is pretty eye-popping on the telecons at CPC frankly. It's like the -PNA complexion of the CPC, which is based upon the GEFs ..., provides a scaffolding for the GGEM's exuberance with its heat look. The Euro appears to be arriving continuing along the 00z's notion of lesser SE Canadian jet so... support may be growing for early heat here. At least from D7 ... after that the Euro tries to doom next weekend - it's climo for that to happen. [EDIT, sorry .. that was the previous run for next weekend...this one's only out to D7 ] That's the f'n rub about these anomalies...In order to have the ballz to make a call over climate. But man, that D5 ...6 of the Euro has a western heat ejection going over top look ...bringing that down over our area D6 on a WNW dragon fart trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Summer has arrived early folks . Dig in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Meh.. I wouldn't trust the Euro after D6 frankly... ...actually any model for that matter, duh - but this Euro run looks like it drops the signal at mid range more because of it's wash application, as opposed to any real forcing from any continuity off the D5/6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2021 Author Share Posted May 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: But then again... mmm that -PNA is pretty eye-popping on the telecons at CPC frankly. It's like the -PNA complexion of the CPC, which is based upon the GEFs ..., provides a scaffolding for the GGEM's exuberance with its heat look. The Euro appears to be arriving continuing along the 00z's notion of lesser SE Canadian jet so... support may be growing for early heat here. At least from D7 ... after that the Euro tries to doom next weekend - it's climo for that to happen. That's the f'n rub about these anomalies...In order to have the ballz to make a call over climate. But man, that D5 ...6 of the Euro has a western heat ejection going over top look ...bringing that down over our area D6 on a WNW dragon fart trajectory. The PV remains quite strong and on the southern side of the Pole...watching the evolution of the 500 heights through the end of the Euro run it seems like that feature is just strong enough/placed south enough to where it flattens the top of the ridge and just prevents those higher thicknesses from getting into our region but yeah...if that feature relaxes or weakens or whatever and that PNA signal holds...we are going to scorch quickly and ramp up those dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The PV remains quite strong and on the southern side of the Pole...watching the evolution of the 500 heights through the end of the Euro run it seems like that feature is just strong enough/placed south enough to where it flattens the top of the ridge and just prevents those higher thicknesses from getting into our region but yeah...if that feature relaxes or weakens or whatever and that PNA signal holds...we are going to scorch quickly and ramp up those dews. Hard call... No part of our climate together with collective common experience would argue for endless days of heat in May. Will and I were musing the other day about ...maybe 2010 doing that... and I'm sure if we dig around. I dunno - maybe this is a return year for something like that (...although this first week of May puts us behind those lore years ) You know..I spent time studying way ago ENSOs and noted a pretty coherent correlation between some noted warm springs into early summers; most were preceded by La Nina numbers quite remarkably similar to this years preceding month ( also through those winters...). But those years got warm, earlier than this..., and it was obvious those years from the get go that it was going to be usual 1976,..2012 were all warm anomalous stand outs with similar -1.5 type 3.4 NINOs... The difference this year seems to be ( theoretical ) the fast flow/HC shit seems to be masking the ENSO as of late, and this year we need to remove that factor ...perhaps now that we have, that substropical ridging is emerging? I dunno - just a thought. But, that vortex handling up there beyond D6 and especially 7 ..the Euro always does this.. It just up and bodily moves those things...and completely abases any D3-7 well established pattern, whether one is destined to actually occur or not. So I don't trust that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Big brush fire burning up in Leyden right now. An hour ago this was just a small column of smoke and now half the hilltop is on fire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Massive WAR with big dews all summer long incoming. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 46 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Massive WAR with big dews all summer long incoming. And then....the canes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 High of 75.5F New weather sensors came in today...excited to try the new 8" diameter Rainwise gauge on the Davis. The tipping mechanism is much wider as well. A new leaf wetness and soil moisture sensor came in too. So if Stein returns I can provide my soil moisture for DIT. And oh yeah...I picked up one of those new Davis AirLink air quality sensors. So get ready for my PM2.5 obs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 73/30 for 20% RH... really not sure it gets better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Might be able to get back into some Stein talk by the end of next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Between the Chinese white poplar and cotton wood its literally snowing white balls of fluff. Nice May stuff. Twirling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Might be able to get back into some Stein talk by the end of next week? Yeah he’s back. Dry as balls out there. Watering all new plantings and grass seed. Thanks a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 23 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Might be able to get back into some Stein having to eat a bullet talk by the end of next week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 4 hours ago, Dan said: Lol geezuz this is perfect 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Summer has arrived early folks . Dig in Off to the races next week and hopefully right through September 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Rain has replaced snow on this sub-forum...lol. Expectations for summer water much higher than winter snow now. Winter...“might be a chance or two for a snow event in the day 7-10 time frame, we’ll have to keep an eye on it but things look good going forward.” Summer...”If we don’t get an inch of rain in the next 3-4 days... what a horrible pattern, just sunshine and dry. This sucks.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol geezuz this is perfect If only Epstein knew he was a meme over here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Impressive diurnal temps yesterday with BDL having a high of 77 but still pulling a -2 for the day. 43⁰ here this morning Looks like a nice short stretch of AN summer like weather next week then a N last week of May. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Impressive diurnal temps yesterday with BDL having a high of 77 but still pulling a -2 for the day. 43⁰ here this morning Looks like a nice short stretch of AN summer like weather next week then a N last week of May. Remember a week ago when those same charts showed all cold all the time for this week and next? Charts gonna chart . Deep summer is here to stay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Low was 56.3 this morning. A drenching warm sweaty 5 miler. So nice to have it sunny at 5:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Impressive diurnal temps yesterday with BDL having a high of 77 but still pulling a -2 for the day. 43⁰ here this morning Looks like a nice short stretch of AN summer like weather next week then a N last week of May. Would be nice if we could sneak in a few days of '80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Remember a week ago when those same charts showed all cold all the time for this week and next? Charts gonna chart . Deep summer is here to stay No they didn't . Just because you say deep summer because you think it and want it doesn't mean it will. Post some reasons and links to your reasoning. Nice ridge nice retreat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Low was 56.3 this morning. A drenching warm sweaty 5 miler. So nice to have it sunny at 5:00 Drenching Beer sweat out with 35 degree dewpoint?. Sunrise at 530 am but it was light at dawn at 5 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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