May 2021 Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS introduced this late yesterday and has persisted with it since.   It carries a pattern defeating nasty SPV extension/quasi-closed buzz-saw through southern Canada ...spanning it's entire mid and extended range to do it, ending up with it still on the charts festering a cold hell over eastern Canada/NE by and through Day 10.

The Euro has never had this feature since yesterday's runs.

The GEFs individual members:  looks like about 50% of them offer tepid support for troughing at D10 over New England, ... none as deep as the operational that I can tell.  While the other 50% offers a bit more support for a different/flat ridge or robust ridge signal over eastern North American mid latitudes. 

Meanwhile, for the 7 days in the row, the nightly telecon handling of the PNA indicates a marked and concerted decline among the members ...  downs -2 or -3 SD and still falling at D10.  The means and -PNA et al ...supports the operational Euro more. 

It matters for spring/warm enthusiasts.  The Euro would has every day 72, 74, 76, 78, 82, 84 ... type of steady warming...  Clouds would be the only limiting factor... ending on D10 with a discerned synoptic ridge and established continental warm conveyor in the bottom half of the troposphere from the SW U.S. to Maine.. 

Basically 180 degrees opposite in synoptic layout to the GFS by the end of that run, which has sad buzz saw still cutting into the flow and denying any of the Euro's evolution from about D5 onward. 

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

GFS looks like Mayburary Continues till end of may

Like the sub 546 thickness region wide and 540  over Cape May 27

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Blue Hill at 635' and maybe 7NM west of me practically doubled my snowfall this season.  Amazing.

Yeah we actually had a couple good elevation events up here.  Trying to remember the dates but I probably would've lost it if I didn't spend 12 hours a day at the ski area in the snow zone.  I think one of those was a good 1+ inch QPF white rain in town that accumulated like 2" of watery white slush... while 1,000ft+ had 8-12" of paste (January I think?).

I remember thinking I missed like another couple feet of snowfall this season by like 300ft  since a couple elevation events were so close to the valley but just not quite there.

 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

GFS looks like Mayburary Continues till end of may

Like the 540 thickness over Cape May 27

Just had a pretty decent squall blow through the base area here though it was all rain that I could see.  It's not warm, ha.  Maybe some graupel later with any afternoon convective type stuff under the cold pool.

The upper mountain cams were picking up flakes though throughout the morning and the view up the mountain has that milky white appearance of snow above like 3,000ft.  Damn thermometer blew off the wall, ha... and the clock needs new batteries.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Just had a pretty decent squall blow through the base area here though it was all rain that I could see.

The upper mountain cams were picking up flakes though and the view up the mountain has that milky white appearance of snow above like 3,000ft.  Damn thermometer blew off the wall, ha.

Coolest May in a while coming up for some stations 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When I was at WestConn Westside Campus I think was like up around 700' while the bottom of the hill was maybe a couple hundred...if even that. Anyways it was about a mile from the top of the hill to the bottom (or maybe 3/4 of a mile). I remember a couple times driving and it would be rain at the bottom and as you got higher it would flip and at the top there would be a coating+ of snow. I've done the walk a few times and it's super cool when you get to the transition spot. 

Can I ask you question -

You seem pretty spiritually committed to a particular sub-genera of Meteorological phenomenon, one that could only be more systemically inhibited in this region of the planetary-atmospheric coupled climate if it were located oh, say...  20 miles outside Amundsen-Scott, South Pole Reasearch Facility amid the -50 C cryo-misted barrens of Ross Ice Sheet, Antarctica  ... Big big TCU there man, no doubt!

You have a degree in Meteorology.  You are young.  Go west young man. Find your home and plug into the realm you were meant - apparently - to be a part. 

Staying here ?  It's like staying in an abusive relationship because one has some unconscious fulfillment of persecution complex - haha...  I mean, start hammering away at finding jobs... f* Met gigs for now. You can find some way to pay for an appartment and spend all your free time doing grad courses on-line and eventually hell... 10 years from now you'd still be young with your foot in the door at the operations branch of NSSL ... maybe -  Point is, you don't know you can't until you try.  

Unless you have some entanglements of life that have you manacled to this area ...If so, that's sad and I'm sorry ... Otherwise, get the f outta here man and find her - the metaphoric "her" ..you know what mean

[powderfreak]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Coolest May in a while coming up for some stations 

Last year on this date the mountain got a foot up high and we even dynamically cooled to a pasting snow in town in the evening.  That was a fun event, like 1.30" water at like 0.20"/hr in a CCB dropped temps from like 50s to pounding paste.

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS introduced this late yesterday and has persisted with it since.   It carries a pattern defeating nasty SPV extension/quasi-closed buzz-saw through southern Canada ...spanning it's entire mid and extended range to do it, ending up with it still on the charts festering a cold hell over eastern Canada/NE by and through Day 10.

The Euro has never had this feature since yesterday's runs.

The GEFs individual members:  looks like about 50% of them offer tepid support for troughing at D10 over New England, ... none as deep as the operational that I can tell.  While the other 50% offers a bit more support for a different/flat ridge or robust ridge signal over eastern North American mid latitudes. 

Meanwhile, for the 7 days in the row, the nightly telecon handling of the PNA indicates a marked and concerted decline among the members ...  downs -2 or -3 SD and still falling at D10.  The means and -PNA et al ...supports the operational Euro more. 

It matters for spring/warm enthusiasts.  The Euro would has every day 72, 74, 76, 78, 82, 84 ... type of steady warming...  Clouds would be the only limiting factor... ending on D10 with a discerned synoptic ridge and established continental warm conveyor in the bottom half of the troposphere from the SW U.S. to Maine.. 

Basically 180 degrees opposite in synoptic layout to the GFS by the end of that run, which has sad buzz saw still cutting into the flow and denying any of the Euro's evolution from about D5 onward. 

 

 

I am quite surprised at the PNA signal. Would have to look through records (which perhaps I'll do after this post) but I would think this would be approaching record territory for May. Usually the PNA signal really starts waning by now. Not a good look for those that like the chase in the mid-west.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Can I ask you question -

You seem pretty spiritually committed to a particular sub-genera of Meteorological phenomenon, one that could only be more systemically inhibited in this region of the planetary-atmospheric coupled climate if it were located on 20 miles outside Amundsen-Scott, South Pole Reasearch Facility out over the cryo-barrens of Ross Ice Sheet, Antarctica  

You have a degree in Meteorology.  You are young.  Go west young man. Find your home and plug into the realm you were meant - apparently - to be a part. 

Staying here ?  It's like staying in an abusive relationship because one has some unconscious fulfillment of persecution complex - haha...  I mean, start hammering away at finding jobs... f* Met gigs for now. You can find some way to pay for an appartment and spend all your free time dong grad courses on-line and eventually hell... 10 years from now you'd still be young with your foot in the door at the operations branch of NSSL ... maybe -  Point is, you don't know you can't until you try.  

Unless you have some entanglements of life that have you manacled to this area ...If so, that's sad and I'm sorry ... Otherwise, get the f outta here man and find her - the metaphoric "her" ..you know what mean

I have always toyed with the idea of moving West. It was something that has been quite appealing but the more I thought of it I became hesitant. I feel like moving to a completely different area after college, especially by yourself is tough...especially when it comes to trying to meet people and I'm not really the big sociable person that goes up to people and start talking to them. Then there is the family aspect with my mom being older and her health not very great and my aunt who I'm close with isn't in the best of health either. As for work I am super lucky to have found a job which I've grown to like and it's super interesting though quite demanding. I am considering going for my masters though and starting classes next spring...I think an NWS job would be sick...particularly within the SPC which is something I would definitely shoot for but don't you need to know coding/GIS for that? I don't think I could ever learn that stuff. I am pretty excited though at the prospects of hiring spree within the NWS over the next several years so getting a masters now would be pretty essential. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Few hundred feet is like 40 miles of latitude.

When you go from Portsmouth NH, to the top of MT Washington, it’s like traveling 1500 miles in terms of climate zones and you can do it all in ~3 hrs.

Back in my days at UMaine an instructor said 400' elevation was like 1° of latitude - 70 miles poleward.  Some years back there was a thread here discussing that ratio, and folks thought 500 or even 600' per degree was more reasonable.   However, a few hundred feet certainly makes a difference, as others have noted.  Some events that dropped 1-2" of slop here at 395' would produce 6" paste 5 miles south on Mile Hill up near 800'.  In 1983 we visited a long-time friend in Blairstown, NW New Jersey, and had a deformation band dump 13" in about 8 hours on April 23, rather late in the season.  That was at 1200' and driving was a challenge.   500' lower in town it was 4-5" of slop that couldn't stick on the pavement.

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am quite surprised at the PNA signal. Would have to look through records (which perhaps I'll do after this post) but I would think this would be approaching record territory for May. Usually the PNA signal really starts waning by now. Not a good look for those that like the chase in the mid-west.

Mm... actually, that's a little less discerned compared to yesterday.

When I mentioned that above, I had not yet seen last night's publication -

That's still impressive enough, but discrete product read: that's about -1 in the mean there - not sure how 'historic for May' that really is?  I think I've seen May pNA handling that deep.  Yesterday this product demoed a curve where every member was declining through the -2 axis line there. 

The MJO is weakened in the RMM ... but the weekly publication/PDF published just yesterday tries to bullet point tell us the RMM is 'artificially' weakening the wave strength and placement - as in false, if I am to gather what they are after.  They cite obscure aspects with ENSO coupling with normal seasonal change .., obscuring the RMM forecasts, but I am not sure I buy it.  Here, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

I think with the lingering ...albeit collapsing La Nina ENSO foot print finally being able to express/transmit more forcing into the westerlies now that the seasonal gradient/CC surplus is dropping and the velocity along with it... the MJO is in fact more favored to be real - not the other way around.   Now, they have PHD's and million dollar technologies working together down in those labs so...  But, I like things to be logical, regardless of what dimension of reality I personally hail from LOL

In NCEP's defense...the AO is modestly negative ... (as is the NAO...) ..these are more correlated with left-RMM phase spaces.  The over-arcing problem then also being that these mass-field correlations get less useful ...particularly JJA, as we know - it may be too early just yet to discount?  The individual members of the GEFs, the same one that provides the -NAO, dont' look very -NAO as individuals on either D6 or 10...yet somehow together their EOF/ .. functional output still gives us negative roots.

The thing that's weird about these teleconnectors is that they are not really UNcorrelated in summer.  What they really are, is noisy correlated - so much so that the linear stats end up with N/S or approaching N/S correlation coefficients.  But it's really much more like "conditionally correlative"   If the pattern footprint is supporting -PNA... the PNA may correlate better during that summer... same with the NAO...  It's all a popsicle headache

 

 

[kdxken]

Even Stein is on the install bandwagon.

We definitely have plenty of comfortable days in our future, but summer is fast approaching along with heat and humidity, and this week definitely gives us a chance to prepare. Check irrigation hoses and perhaps even put those window units in.

Follow Dave Epstein

[bwt3650]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah we actually had a couple good elevation events up here.  Trying to remember the dates but I probably would've lost it if I didn't spend 12 hours a day at the ski area in the snow zone.  I think one of those was a good 1+ inch QPF white rain in town that accumulated like 2" of watery white slush... while 1,000ft+ had 8-12" of paste (January I think?).

I remember thinking I missed like another couple feet of snowfall this season by like 300ft  since a couple elevation events were so close to the valley but just not quite there.

 

3-6 seemed like the common depth for most of my drives up until I started climbing elevation on 242 this year.  Didn't notice much depth down low except for that one storm cycle post MLK where we up-sloped 2-3 feet all week after the base builder.  Seemed like consistent snow cover; just not great depth.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Follow Dave Epstein

No.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I am quite surprised at the PNA signal. Would have to look through records (which perhaps I'll do after this post) but I would think this would be approaching record territory for May. Usually the PNA signal really starts waning by now. Not a good look for those that like the chase in the mid-west.

Record for May is -2.573, which was set on May 22, 1964.

[Ginx snewx]

Just the absolute perfect day for yard work, mow, weed whacked. Lunch on the deck beautiful breeze high sun. Cocadoodledewlessness 

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

When I was at WestConn Westside Campus I think was like up around 700' while the bottom of the hill was maybe a couple hundred...if even that. Anyways it was about a mile from the top of the hill to the bottom (or maybe 3/4 of a mile). I remember a couple times driving and it would be rain at the bottom and as you got higher it would flip and at the top there would be a coating+ of snow. I've done the walk a few times and it's super cool when you get to the transition spot. 

Describes my hill 250 to 750 in 1/2 mile. Seen it many times. Rain to snow. 

[powderfreak]

It is snowing out right now at 1,500ft.  Was graupel and fat drops but just switched to all small flakes.

Sure as hell not accumulating but it's legit -SN.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Record for May is -2.573, which was set on May 22, 1964.

Hey Don ..sup -

if ur still around, what was the PNA 6 days and 10 days later in '64 ? 

I'm curious because I looked up the 12z synopsis/analysis on the 22nd ( far left frame...) from way back then, and noted the robust ridge signature that is consistent with -PNA. 

Firstly, not "AS" robust as a -2.573 index could correlate with but ... these things are never 1::1 either. 

Secondly, the 2nd from the left is 72 hours out in time ...so the 25th of May 1964, and we note an interesting trough digging N of the Great Lakes? I just spent time railing against the GFS for overnight charts that - indeed! - demo uncanningly similar evolution to that feature back when, perhaps to my chagrin.   Note, both eras have robust -PNA's implied.  Point being -->

Thirdly, I am curious where the PNA went back then? If it did flip sign, or if these changes we see in this image imm below...all took place ( back then - ) during a persisting -PNA.

Lastly ... note where this ended up by the 1st of June that year... pretty ugly looking autumn at the wrong end of the calendar look there - ah-eesh. 

Anyway, could just be coincidence... I am noticing the present operational GFS is trying to part company with it's ensemble mean members, individual and blended average ... with an overall complexion that is the least -PNA out of the cluster.  Not sure why it is trying to fight it - other than what I have noted already ad nauseam, that it tends to end up with surplus cold heights on the polar side of the westerlies as a cumulative error ...pretty much on ever run it ever puts on. It's pretty glaring bias actually... But, if the flow is marginally supportive - it may then create faux "synergistic" or constructive interference and cause troughs in its extended ranges to get too robust ... 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

It is snowing out right now at 1,500ft.  Was graupel and fat drops but just switched to all small flakes.

Sure as hell not accumulating but it's legit -SN.

Had a graupel shower here earlier. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Don ..sup -

if ur still around, what was the PNA 6 days and 10 days later in '64 ? 

I'm curious because I looked up the 12z synopsis/analysis on the 22nd ( far left frame...) from way back then, and noted the robust ridge signature that is consistent with -PNA. 

Firstly, not "AS" robust as a -2.573 index could correlate with but ... these things are never 1::1 either. 

Secondly, the 2nd from the left is 72 hours out in time ...so the 25th of May 1964, and we note an interesting trough digging N of the Great Lakes? I just spent time railing against the GFS for overnight charts that - indeed! - demo uncanningly similar evolution to that feature back when, perhaps to my chagrin.   Note, both eras have robust -PNA's implied.  Point being -->

Thirdly, I am curious where the PNA went back then? If it did flip sign, or if these changes we see in this image imm below...all took place ( back then - ) during a persisting -PNA.

Lastly ... note where this ended up by the 1st of June that year... pretty ugly looking autumn at the wrong end of the calendar look there - ah-eesh. 

Anyway, could just be coincidence... I am noticing the present operational GFS is trying to part company with it's ensemble mean members, individual and blended average ... with an overall complexion that is the least -PNA out of the cluster.  Not sure why it is trying to fight it - other than what I have noted already ad nauseam, that it tends to end up with surplus cold heights on the polar side of the westerlies as a cumulative error ...pretty much on ever run it ever puts on. It's pretty glaring bias actually... But, if the flow is marginally supportive - it may then create faux "synergistic" or constructive interference and cause troughs in its extended ranges to get too robust ... 

Here’s the data:

6 days later: -0.444

10 days later: +0.662

On days 1-5, the PNA was strongly negative (< -1.000).

 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here’s the data:

6 days later: -0.444

10 days later: +0.662

On days 1-5, the PNA was strongly negative (< -1.000).

 

That's interesting...

Perhaps the PNA transitioning between modes "led" the way so to speak, wrt to the digging wave back then...destined to carve out a full -latitudue longitudinal R-wave construct like it did.

The GFS may presently be picking something up in the physics that results in a similar transition, that the Euro does not see happening. In fact, the 12z Euro on D6 looks even more opposite the GFS ...almost entirely flat with that feature - as it ...it doesn't exist in the Euro.  Although the 12z GFS did trend less amped/flatter than the 00z version ...both still ends up carving out a similar trough.

There's nothing extraordinary about this particular interval of time ... I'm just curious about which will win -

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwinw -

the Euro's mid 80s warmth over the whole OV ..spilling into New England D8.5-10...  It's a long way off so but, it's matching the -PNA.  

Forgetting that range though ...this run is entirely different in handling across mid latitudes of N/A as early as D4 ...6 than the GFS

[CoastalWx]

64 and sunny 

[CoastalWx]

Sometimes I feel like PF lives 1500 miles away.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwinw -

the Euro's mid 80s warmth over the whole OV ..spilling into New England D8.5-10...  It's a long way off so but, it's matching the -PNA.  

Forgetting that range though ...this run is entirely different in handling across mid latitudes of N/A as early as D4 ...6 than the GFS

Yeah that’s a furnace coming 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Sometimes I feel like PF lives 1500 miles away.

Had accumulating graupel too on elevated surfaces and the mulch beds.  Temp outside the office got down to 41F in precip, lol.  Then sun comes out and it’s 50F again.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Sometimes I feel like PF lives 1500 miles away.

I mean it even hit 60F here with partly sunny skies. Totally another world over there sometimes.

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean it even hit 60F here with partly sunny skies. Totally another world over there sometimes.

Further west at SLK... dipping to 37F in the last half hour.  The evaporational cooling with these showers is pretty impressive. 

METAR KSLK 112020Z AUTO 27008KT 7SM -RA SCT031 BKN040 OVC050 03/01 A2993 RMK P0001

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's interesting...

Perhaps the PNA transitioning between modes "led" the way so to speak, wrt to the digging wave back then...destined to carve out a full -latitudue longitudinal R-wave construct like it did.

The GFS may presently be picking something up in the physics that results in a similar transition, that the Euro does not see happening. In fact, the 12z Euro on D6 looks even more opposite the GFS ...almost entirely flat with that feature - as it ...it doesn't exist in the Euro.  Although the 12z GFS did trend less amped/flatter than the 00z version ...both still ends up carving out a similar trough.

There's nothing extraordinary about this particular interval of time ... I'm just curious about which will win -

The GFS hasn’t been verifying very well this spring. I am not sure whether it is having difficulty due to the seasonal transition or other issues. The ECMWF is also being upgraded, so this could be an interesting “model battle.”