May 2021 Discussion

[alex]

What do May snow showers bring? 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, alex said:

What do May snow showers bring? 

Grumpy people?

[Heisy]

ANyone see this BS? 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t get it. This aftn and tomorrow look decent here. The nam had some clouds and showers there. Hopefully he can tan the nape. Who’s unhappy? You should smile. Only 2 more wins to get to .500

I’ve been keeping quiet while the Yanks have struggled early.. listening to all the Sox fans gloating , saying they’re the best team in the AL east etc. Noting the calendar , and the 162 game schedule. Just watching and waiting and making notes .

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

ANyone see this Joyous solution 

 

Yup. Let’s do it 

[kdxken]

39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks toasty tomorrow. I’ll take a shit week if I can get 65-70 on Sunday. 

I'll take 30s tomorrow if we can get a good week.

[kdxken]

21 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week looks ok. Couple of periods of showers mixed between periods of sun. Typical early May. Second half of month is looking like early summer with ridging over EC

You know you're in trouble when this is the best spin Trollland can come up with.

[dendrite]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NaM looks like it clouds up there tomorrow 

Showers and storms down there too in the afternoon. 3k is still u60s/l70s region wide.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve been keeping quiet while the Yanks have struggled early.. listening to all the Sox fans gloating , saying they’re the best team in the AL east etc. Noting the calendar , and the 162 game schedule. Just watching and waiting and making notes .

This season is gravy with zero expectations here. Just enjoying how they’re playing. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Yup. Let’s do it 

Sell

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Showers and storms down there too in the afternoon. 3k is still u60s/l70s region wide.

I’m hoping for 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This season is gravy with zero expectations here. Just enjoying how they’re playing. 

They love to do this a lot over the past decade... play an absolute dogsh*t season to lower everyone’s expectations to just “watchable baseball near .500 is a win” and then they show up.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve been keeping quiet while the Yanks have struggled early.. listening to all the Sox fans gloating , saying they’re the best team in the AL east etc. Noting the calendar , and the 162 game schedule. Just watching and waiting and making notes .

It doesn't take all that much to be "good" in the AL...

[powderfreak]

Great bluebird Saturday to start May.  Doesn’t get much better than this... hiking in shorts on fresh snow.

[weatherwiz]

If a tree falls down in the forest and nobody’s around to hear it, did it really fall?

[George001]

On 4/30/2021 at 1:42 PM, MJO812 said:

Normally when I see a low that strong on the models my first instinct is to forecast a massive blizzard, but it’s the gfs so it’s probably wrong and also it’s May. Based on the upper levels (for r/s line I use the 540 line) this run would support severe blizzard conditions in the berkshires and maybe even some snow into Worcester, with rain se of there. Of course its not going to happen because it’s the GFS and it’s May, but the fact that the run even supports blizzard conditions in May says everything you need to know about this model, which is that it is absolute garbage. Too bad we couldn’t get this in March. Fortunately the early signals (severe volcanic activity, and weak enso signal) are supportive for a severe winter next year, let’s hope that they hold.

[Typhoon Tip]

What in the hell are you talking about ... good god.  Are you actually looking at that chart when you make this statement, " ... this run would support severe blizzard conditions .."

That's light QPF that far west, steady in nature...  It doesn't connote severe anything ... anywhere else for that matter, even if it were snow.  

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Normally when I see a low that strong on the models my first instinct is to forecast a massive blizzard, but it’s the gfs so it’s probably wrong and also it’s May. Based on the upper levels (for r/s line I use the 540 line) this run would support severe blizzard conditions in the berkshires and maybe even some snow into Worcester, with rain se of there. Of course its not going to happen because it’s the GFS and it’s May, but the fact that the run even supports blizzard conditions in May says everything you need to know about this model, which is that it is absolute garbage. Too bad we couldn’t get this in March. Fortunately the early signals (severe volcanic activity, and weak enso signal) are supportive for a severe winter next year, let’s hope that they hold.

You make me look smarter than Scooter.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What in the hell are you talking about ... good god.  Are you actually looking at that chart when you make this statement, " ... this run would support severe blizzard conditions .."

That's light QPF that far west, steady in nature...  It doesn't connote severe anything ... anywhere else for that matter, even if it were snow.  

Weenie of the year 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

my first instinct is to forecast a massive blizzard, but it’s the gfs so it’s probably wrong and also it’s May. 

All true facts and one can easily see the internal struggle between following your instincts and also nodding towards reality.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah this sounds decent despite Kooky Kenny posts 70+ where most folks LIVE thru Thursday 

Confidence higher in the temperatures across southern New England on
Monday with the EPS and other guidance sources interquartile range
around 5-7 degrees. Should see temperatures topping out in the low
60s across NE MA, Cape Cod and the Islands to the mid 70s in the CT
River Valley. Lots more spread on Tuesday/Wednesday with the
interquartile range getting to 10-20 degrees between the 25th and
75h percentile. Do have a bit more confidence on Tuesday across CT
of temps in the low to mid 70s. Leaned on the NBM guidance due to
the uncertainty at this point in time. Readings on Wednesday also
fairly spread given uncertainty with the frontal passage. Readings
range from the low 60s to low 70s. This is all despite the mild 925
hPa air in the 9 to 15+ degree Celsius range as low level easterly
flow will keep those temperatures down.

Did add a mention of thunderstorms later on Tuesday into early
Wednesday as there is a surge of warmer air advecting in and the
front appears to jog a bit further northward. Models showing a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE across western MA into CT, which is possible
given models showing some sky clearing in the low to mid levels

[powderfreak]

What a day.  Green valley with white ridge lines above. 

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What a day.  Green valley with white ridge lines above. 

It is nice to see everyone from north to south share in a nice warm and early warm season. Better than leaf outs Memorial Day and beyond 

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Normally when I see a low that strong on the models my first instinct is to forecast a massive blizzard, but it’s the gfs so it’s probably wrong and also it’s May. Based on the upper levels (for r/s line I use the 540 line) this run would support severe blizzard conditions in the berkshires and maybe even some snow into Worcester, with rain se of there. Of course its not going to happen because it’s the GFS and it’s May, but the fact that the run even supports blizzard conditions in May says everything you need to know about this model, which is that it is absolute garbage. Too bad we couldn’t get this in March. Fortunately the early signals (severe volcanic activity, and weak enso signal) are supportive for a severe winter next year, let’s hope that they hold.

there are not enough of these for you to forecast 

seriosly though, why the **** does everything have to be a blizzard? 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah this sounds decent despite Kooky Kenny posts 70+ where most folks LIVE thru Thursday 

Confidence higher in the temperatures across southern New England on
Monday with the EPS and other guidance sources interquartile range
around 5-7 degrees. Should see temperatures topping out in the low
60s across NE MA, Cape Cod and the Islands to the mid 70s in the CT
River Valley. Lots more spread on Tuesday/Wednesday with the
interquartile range getting to 10-20 degrees between the 25th and
75h percentile. Do have a bit more confidence on Tuesday across CT
of temps in the low to mid 70s. Leaned on the NBM guidance due to
the uncertainty at this point in time. Readings on Wednesday also
fairly spread given uncertainty with the frontal passage. Readings
range from the low 60s to low 70s. This is all despite the mild 925
hPa air in the 9 to 15+ degree Celsius range as low level easterly
flow will keep those temperatures down.

Did add a mention of thunderstorms later on Tuesday into early
Wednesday as there is a surge of warmer air advecting in and the
front appears to jog a bit further northward. Models showing a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE across western MA into CT, which is possible
given models showing some sky clearing in the low to mid lev

You forgot this piece.

A few showers are possible late tonight as a weak disturbance moves
through. Warmer conditions arrive Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front, that may yield scattered afternoon and evening showers.
The cold front stalls over our region, leading to unsettled weather
with daily chances for showers through mid week. High pressure
brings drier weather on Thursday, then a coastal storm could
impact the region late in the week

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It is nice to see everyone from north to south share in a nice warm and early warm season. Better than leaf outs Memorial Day and beyond 

Yeah it’s been a good one for sure. Last year was frigid around this time... like second half of April into mid-May before the record torch hit later in May.

No complaints at all this spring.  Hopefully it’s not as wet next week as the forecast looks.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it’s been a good one for sure. Last year was frigid around this time... like second half of April into mid-May before the record torch hit later in May.

No complaints at all this spring.  Hopefully it’s not as wet next week as the forecast looks.

I really enjoyed the snow when I was up there 10 days ago 

[kdxken]

Best install now. Mid summer on it's way...

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

What a day.  Green valley with white ridge lines above. 

Beautiful. I took this today looking towards the windmills in Rhode Island. Some say full leaf out but looks pretty brown so far. The valleys are however loaded with Maples and willows out. Lots of these oaks are dead

[George001]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What in the hell are you talking about ... good god.  Are you actually looking at that chart when you make this statement, " ... this run would support severe blizzard conditions .."

That's light QPF that far west, steady in nature...  It doesn't connote severe anything ... anywhere else for that matter, even if it were snow.  

Yeah but for massive nor’easters (sub 980mb) isn’t there usually a band of heavy precip that backs in farther west than the surface maps say? The dynamics look quite extreme to me on that run, which to me signals that there will be banding farther west. When combining that with the location of the 540 line is what led me to the conclusion that this run supports severe blizzard conditions in the Berkshires. That said, I believe the run is wrong and am not forecasting that.