Mountain West Discussion

[Chinook]

As we have said in recent discussions, the recent snows at the low elevations have turned to rains and severe weather watches (as of yesterday) and primarily spring-like weather is in the forecast. So, it must be time to start the summer discussion. Monday's weather may be a very similar rainy pattern compared to yesterday (Tuesday.)

[mayjawintastawm]

Bumping this up before it gets buried. I forget just how cold and rainy the first week of May tends to be here. The gloometer is about as high as it ever goes. 1.30" of rain from this event so far, though it's about done. Got some wet snow in the air this AM but never got below 36.

[ValpoVike]

I came across this from NWS Boulder's Facebook. 

[n1vek]

GFS is spinning up another big guy for the Front Range for Monday-Wednesday of next week. I am sure it is over done, but will be interesting to see if other models start to bend towards it. 

Back in the fall I told the wife how much I wanted wet spring/backloaded winter for fire season. Seem to be getting it as of now (in the eastern half of the state/foothills/divide). I guess it will really all come down to the success/failure of the monsoon in late summer.

[Chinook]

We've gone a long way toward recovering from the drought in eastern Colorado, and some of Kansas and Nebraska. Unfortunately, many other areas of the country have continued with drought, or started getting into drought.

 

[n1vek]

I am very interested to see the Colorado drought map when it is released tomorrow. Last week's iteration didn't catch the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. Add that to the rain we received Monday and we could see additional drought improvement vs the map shown above. 

[smokeybandit]

Oh you silly GFS

 

[ValpoVike]

On 5/5/2021 at 3:25 PM, n1vek said:

I am very interested to see the Colorado drought map when it is released tomorrow. Last week's iteration didn't catch the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. Add that to the rain we received Monday and we could see additional drought improvement vs the map shown above. 

Here ya go. Very good improvement over the northeast. 

[ValpoVike]

Yet another juicy storm on tap for early this week.  I think this makes the 3rd "early in the week" storm in a row with generous QPF.  This one feels a bit more interesting with respect to snow accumulation.  It looks like 6500 feet and higher may do pretty well this time around, versus the 8000 foot consistency in the prior two weeks.  Not that I am pulling for 10-12" up here, I'm kind of done, but I think it is possible.

[smokeybandit]

We laugh at the GFS, but even the NAM and long range HRRR have pretty solid snow totals east and southeast of Denver.

 

[Chinook]

NWS forecasts have some snow for the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. I'm hoping I don't see any of it. Things have been cool and rainy and snowy in recent weeks, but I can't complain, it's better than fire.

[ValpoVike]

Not too bad up here.  Woke up to about 2" this morning, that melted by noon despite steady snow.  It started accumulating again in the early afternoon and we are probably back up to 3" of new accumulation.  It's not really accumulating on road surfaces, just on decks and grass.  All in all a very typical May snow.

[Chinook]

My place has gotten snow on the roofs today, in the afternoon. Wow, afternoons should be 70 degrees by now!

[smokeybandit]

Quite a bust of a storm from the GFS/NAM.

 

Euro had it right, very little moisture outside of the foothills.

[ValpoVike]

2 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Quite a bust of a storm from the GFS/NAM.

 

Euro had it right, very little moisture outside of the foothills.

This year GFS = Generously Forecasting Snow

[Chinook]

As for me, I've had 2.45" of precipitation this month, and as I mentioned on Monday, some snow stuck to the grass surfaces and roofs of houses. The amount for Fort Collins-CSU has been 3.24" which is significantly above the 2.42" for the climatology for May (1981-2010.)

As a side note, I don't know how exactly the Spring severe weather patterns have been so continuously screwed up for something like a decade. As I mentioned in the "predict the first high risk" thread, I was expecting much better severe weather patterns to pop up in this year. And I also mentioned "when was the last significant tornado outbreak to happen in the traditional tornado alley?"  Really, the last day of a large amount of tornadoes in tornado alley was April 14, 2012. By my estimation based of the SPC pages, there have been somewhere between 7 and 11 tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma combined since the beginning of the year, 6 in Nebraska, and several preliminary tornado reports in the Dallas vicinity.

[smokeybandit]

Foggy and misty all day today. Haven't seen a day like that since I lived on the east coast

[Chinook]

Quote

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Colorado

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM
     until 800 PM MDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter likely
     Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible

 

Quote

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Eastern New Mexico
     Far West Texas

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM
     until 900 PM MDT.

 

[smokeybandit]

There was a confirmed tornado near Limon

[smokeybandit]

 

[Chinook]

Quote

Tornado Watch Number 196
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1205 PM MDT Sun May 23 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northeast/East-Central Colorado
     Northwest Kansas
     Western Nebraska
     Southeast Wyoming

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until
     800 PM MDT.

 

[Chinook]

Many times recently I have looked over toward the Mummy Range and Long's Peak, and the snow looks pretty thick for this time of year. Here's a neat pic, reposted by Jim Cantore

[ValpoVike]

13 hours ago, Chinook said:

Many times recently I have looked over toward the Mummy Range and Long's Peak, and the snow looks pretty thick for this time of year. Here's a neat pic, reposted by Jim Cantore

 

That is a cool photo.  Below is a photo of fresh snowfall that I shot yesterday/Sunday evening from my deck looking west up the North Fork of the Big Thompson.  Signal Mtn is on the right and Mt Dickinson to the left, with Mummy Mtn off camera a bit further left. Right of center are some burn scars from the Cameron Peak fire which have been quite useful in revealing snow coverage from a couple of miles away.  Anyways, it is stunning out with all of the green popping out everywhere with the backdrop of fresh snowfall.

[Chinook]

GFS - Gobs of Forecasted Snow
GFS - Good For Something?
NAM - Newfangled Adding Machine
NAM- No Accumulation Model
RAP - Rarely Accurate Prediction
HRRR - Highly Ridiculous Rat Race
UKMET - Uncle Kevin's Mediocre Electric Telegraph
ECMWF - Extra Carbon Makes Warming Faster
ECMWF - Even Chimpanzees Make Weather Forecasts
GDPS - Greatly Disappointing Punch-card System
RDPS - Rightfully Disavowed Prediction Service
GFDL - Glorified Forecast of Downright Lunacy
HMON - Hurricanes Make Otters Nervous
HWRF - Home Windows Rarely Fail (except when hit by a hurricane)
HRW-WRF-NSSL - HRW-WRF-Never Sustains Storms Long

NGM - No Good Model

"We wish you some RUC."

[Chinook]

rain near Denver

[Chinook]

For me, it felt a lot cooler here than it was, that is, with a difference from normal of about -1.0F or maybe -1.5F. Maybe the consistent clouds and rain made me feel like it just way way cooler than "summer" is supposed to be, since summer is always warmer than normal. As I mentioned before, several areas of the country are not getting better on the drought situation, but Texas definitely had some drought relief and/or abundance of soil moisture.

 

 

 

and by the way, I give this Spring a severe weather score of minus 8 million on a score of 1 to 10, because there was a magical bubble protecting the entire Great Lakes/Ohio Valley from severe weather

 

 

[finnster]

The abundant spring moisture and cooler temps on the northern front range have sure been a blessing.  As we passed into June it seems a switch just got flipped, and now I'm starting to feel uneasy (again) .  Now we're in to a pattern of hot and dry weather - if that is the case until October (like most of recent summers) I'm going to be seriously bummed.  Someone please tell me we're going to have some semblance of a monsoon pattern this summer at some point!

[ValpoVike]

42 minutes ago, finnster said:

The abundant spring moisture and cooler temps on the northern front range have sure been a blessing.  As we passed into June it seems a switch just got flipped, and now I'm starting to feel uneasy (again) .  Now we're in to a pattern of hot and dry weather - if that is the case until October (like most of recent summers) I'm going to be seriously bummed.  Someone please tell me we're going to have some semblance of a monsoon pattern this summer at some point!

A typical summer pattern so far the past week.  Up here in Glen Haven we thankfully have had good short lived heavy rain the past couple of days, but that is just by luck as most of the front range has not seen these.  You're spot on that it comes down to the monsoon.

Western Colorado is still in a rather dire scenario that the monsoon won't fix.

 

[Chinook]

A short-lived Greeley metro area tornado with low shear. As for me, I'm hearing the first thunder I've heard this year.  It seems like it went from 60 degrees to 90 degrees in a couple of days recently.

Quote

At 548 PM MDT, radar was indicating a possible tornado located 4 
miles northwest of Platteville, or about 10 miles southwest of 
Greeley, moving northeast at 10 mph.

This storm has produced a tornado but it has lifted at the current 
time.  A tornado is still possible with this storm so the warning 
still remains in effect until 600 PM MDT.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

Edit: 

first time I saw lightning this year

location of rotation max near Firestone, CO

[finnster]

10 hours ago, ValpoVike said:

A typical summer pattern so far the past week.  Up here in Glen Haven we thankfully have had good short lived heavy rain the past couple of days, but that is just by luck as most of the front range has not seen these.  You're spot on that it comes down to the monsoon.

Western Colorado is still in a rather dire scenario that the monsoon won't fix.

 

Thanks, I know many parts of the west and Midwest are in pretty bad shape, so I’m definitely grateful for the rain (and snow earlier) we’ve gotten.  Would just be nice to see some wet thunderstorms once in awhile to keep temperatures down and the fire danger in check.