May 2021 temperature forecast contest -- final results of the snowfall contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies for these nine locations:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

As far as I know the anomalies in use will continue to be 1981-2010. If this changes before the deadline I will get in touch with entrants. If it changes during the month with 1991-2020 to be used at end of month, I will try to find the differentials to apply and unless otherwise notified your forecasts will be assumed to be with reference to 1981-2010 normals. We will do the seasonal max forecasts this summer but I'll add that to June this year. 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5      1.5      1.0          1.0      2.0     2.0        0.5      1.5       0.0

[Rjay]

DCA:  +2.5

NYC:  +2.5

BOS:  +2.5

ORD: +2.5

ATL:  +1.5

IAD:  +2..0

DEN:  +3.5

PHX:  +2.5

SEA:   0.0

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA:  +2.1

NYC:  +2.0

BOS:  +1.8

ORD: +1.9

ATL:  +1.1

IAH:  +2.6

DEN:  +2.7

PHX:  +2.0

SEA:   + 0.6

[wxallannj]

DCA:  +1.4

NYC:  +1.2

BOS:  +1.0

ORD: -0.5

ATL:  +1.6

IAH:  -0.5

DEN:  -0.6

PHX:  +2.2

SEA:   + 0.4

 

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0      0.8        0.5      1.3     1.0         1.8      1.0      -0.1

[Tom]

DCA:  +1.8

NYC:  +1.6

BOS:  +1.2

ORD: +0.2

ATL:  +1.2

IAH:  +0.2

DEN:  -0.5

PHX:  +2.1

SEA:   + 0.8

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.4       0.6      0.4       -0.1      0.8     0.7        -0.2     0.2      0.1

[bkviking]

 

DCA:  +1.4

NYC:  +1.2

BOS:  +1.1

ORD: +0.7

ATL:  +1.5

IAD:  +2..2

DEN:  +2.6

PHX:  +2.1

SEA:   +0.8

 

[wxdude64]

DCA  +1.7

NYC. +1.5

BOS. +1.2

ORD. +0.6

ATL. +1.3

IAH. +1.1

DEN. +0.9

PHX  +1.6

SEA  -0.4

[Roger Smith]

+1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 ___ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 ___ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.8 

[so_whats_happening]

DCA  +1.8

NYC. +1.1

BOS. +0.7

ORD. +1.2

ATL. +2.1

IAH. +1.8

DEN. +1.9

PHX  +2.3

SEA  +0.4

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for May, 2021

 

FORECASTER _____ _____ _____ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ bias (rel to con)

RJay _________________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 ___ +0.89

hudsonvalley21 ______________ +2.1 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +1.1 _ +2.6 __ +2.7 _ +2.0 _ +0.6 ___ +0.68

Tom _________________________ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.2 __ +0.2 _ +1.2 _ +0.2 __ --0.5 _ +2.1 _ +0.8 ___ --0.41

so_whats_happening _ (-3%) __ +1.8 _ +1.1 _ +0.7 __ +1.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.4 ___ +0.20

wxdude64 ____________________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.6 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +0.9 _ +1.6 _ --0.4 ___ --0.22

Scotty Lightning _______________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ --0.06

___ Consensus ________________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +0.4 

Roger Smith __________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 __ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.8 ___ +0.19

BKViking _____________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +1.5 _ +2.2 __ +2.6 _ +2.1 _ +0.8 ___ +0.26

wxallannj _____________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __ --0.5 _ +1.6 _ --0.5 __ --0.6 _ +2.2 _ +0.4 ___ --0.59

RodneyS ______________________ +1.4 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 __--0.1 _ +0.8 _ +0.7 __ --0.2 _ +0.2 _ +0.1 ___ --0.84

DonSutherland1 _______________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +1.3 _ +1.0 __ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ --0.1 ___ --0.36

___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ --1.28

_________________________________________________________________

Color codes for warmest and coldest forecasts, Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL, PHX.

Bias is the average departure of your forecast from consensus. The bias of normal tells us that our average forecast is +1.28. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Anomalies and tracking future trends from the GFS ... 

_____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

_11th _____ (anom 10d) _____ --1.7 _ --2.8 _ --0.2 __ --2.5 _--0.9 _+2.4 __ --0.3 _+4.4 _--0.6

_23rd _____ (anom 22d) _____ --1.1 _ +0.6 _ +3.8 __ +0.5 _--2.4 _--0.9 __ --1.0 _+2.5 _--0.4

_30th _____ (anom 30d) est __--1.0 __ 0.0 _ +3.3 __ --0.3 _--1.4 _--1.0 __ --1.0 _+1.2 _--0.9

_30th _____(anom 30d 81-10)_+0.2 _+0.9 _ +3.8 __ +1.2 _--0.3 _--0.4 __ --0.5 _+1.1 _+0.6

_31st-1st __ final anom ______ --1.1 _--0.3 _+3.0 __ --0.4 _--1.5 _--1.2 __ --1.3 _+1.1 _--0.6

verified all the above are rel to 1991-2020 . 

_31st-1st __ contest (1981-2010) anom

______________________________+0.1 _+0.6 _+3.5 __ +1.1 _--0.4 _--0.6 __ --1.0 _+1.0 _+0.9

 

_11th _____ (p anom 20d) ___ --2.0 _ --2.5 _ --1.5 __ --2.0 _ --1.5 __0.0 __ +0.5 _+4.0 _+1.0

 

_11th _____ (p anom 31d) ___ --1.5 _ --2.0 _ --1.0 __ --1.5 _ --1.0 _--0.5 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+1.5

_23rd _____ (p anom 31d) ___ +1.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.0 __ +3.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+0.5

_30th _____ (p anom 31d) ___ +0.2 _ +0.5 _ +3.3 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ --0.2 __ --0.5 _+1.0 _+0.8

_______________________________

11th _ The month has started out rather cold across the northern half of the U.S. (lower 48) and warmer than average closer to the southern border and the Gulf of Mexico. The projections above are based on the following: (days 1-10) continued rather cold in the east but this regime spreading further south to include ATL and IAH in below normal northeast wind patterns, west warming esp valid SEA and DEN, then days 11 to 16 and beyond for a month end projection just took normal values in east expecting a warming trend beyond the model run, and a +2.0 anomaly for western locations days 11-20. 

23rd _ Back to warmer weather after mid-month, some of the anomaly projections were not quite as far off as they look because of the difference in update time (to 22nd) and projection (to 20th), but a warmer look now to end of month in most cases, will result in warmer end of month projections. 

30th _ The most recent projections have been thrown into disarray by the huge negative anomalies on the backside of the east coast low, and the introduction of 1991-2020 normals which are higher (as discussed below) therefore the reported anomalies are lower by that much also. 

Will be working out what the anomalies should be for the contest since you all made forecasts based on 1981-2010 normals for May. As I've been saying we will go with the reported anomalies relative to 1991-2020 from June onward.

For now, the numbers I am using to start the provisional scoring process are my estimates of what the contest anomalies will be, the 1991-2020 anomalies will be lower by various amounts. See the June thread for more details. 

 

(11th, 23rd) _ Checked for snow at contest sites, just a trace at DEN on 10th. Probably not quite time to call the contest yet (latest updates are in the April contest thread). 

[Roger Smith]

I have posted a full report on the 1991-2020 normals in the June thread, and they apparently are already replacing the 1981-2010 in NWS reporting, I believe ...

(from the June thread ...)

By the looks of the SEA current reporting, they have already switched to 1991-2020, the anomaly for 56.3 is reported as -0.8 which says that the "normal" for 1-26 is 57.1, comparing that to 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 it would appear that the report is relative to 1991-2020. 

Will discuss this with you all by private message and see what you think should happen for May, but for June we will take the reports using 1991-2020 so it's up to you to assess the new normals at the nine locations, hope you find the above tables useful in that regard. Some locations have warmed more than others (not only climate change at work but also urbanization issues). 

 

•  

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for May 2021

The NWS has changed reporting to the 1991-2020 normals but as the contest specified 1981-2010 normals for this contest month, the anomalies reported will be adjusted (all but PHX will be adjusted up since 1981-2010 values are cooler than 1991-2020, PHX actually went down 0.1 from May 1981-2010 to May 1991-2020, not a very significant change). 

Small late penalties are shown as * per point lost. Total in brackets is before accumulated late penalties.

A verification was made to ensure that CF6 reports were using 1991-2020 normals. DEN worked out to a value 0.2 below the 1991-2020 normal and 0.3 above the 1981-2010 normal. All eight other locations worked out to values identical to the 1991-2020 normal. The DEN anomaly may be either (a) a manual error or (b) a rounding issue within max and min. In any case it makes no difference to the outcome, I decided to take their reported actual value and the differential from 1981-2010 which worked out to a contest anomaly of --1.0 (would have been -0.8 had the same rounding issues been applied). As our lowest forecast was -0.6, the differential in scoring would have been the same.

 

FORECASTER _____ _____ _____ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_c/e_ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL

Contest anomalies (rel 1981-2010) __+0.1_+0.6_+3.5 __ __ _+1.1_--0.4_--0.6 __ __ __ __  --1.0 _+1.0 _+0.9

___ Normal ___________________98 _ 88 _ 30 __ 216 __ 78 _ 92 _ 88 __258 _ 474 __ 80 _ 80 _ 82 ___ 242 ____ 716

Tom _________________________ 66 _ 80 _ 54 __ 200 __ 82 _ 68 _ 84 __234 _ 434 __ 90 _ 78 _ 98 __ 266 ____ 700 

wxallannj _____________________ 74 _ 88 _ 50 __ 212 __ 68 _ 60 _ 98 __226 _ 438 __ 92 _ 76 _ 90 ___ 258 ____ 696

RodneyS ______________________74 _100_ 38 __ 212 __ 76 _ 76 _ 74 __226 _ 438 __ 84 _ 84 _ 84 ___ 252 ____ 690

DonSutherland1 ______________ 82 _ 92 _ 46 __ 220 __ 88 _ 66 _ 68 __222 _ 442 __ 44 _100_ 80 ___ 224 ____ 666

wxdude64 ____________________68 _ 82 _ 54 __ 204 __ 90 _ 66 _ 66 __222 _ 426 __ 62 _ 88 _ 74 ___ 224 ____ 650

Scotty Lightning ______________ 72 _ 82 _ 50 __ 204 __ 98_ 52 _ 48 __198 _ 402 __ 70 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 242 ____ 644

Roger Smith __________________ 74 _ 88 _ 54 __ 216 __ 92 _ 58 _ 64 __214 _ 430 __ 42 _ 74 _ 98___ 214 ____ 644

___ Consensus ________________72 _ 88 _ 52 __ 212 __ 92 _ 62 _ 64 __218 _ 430 __ 44 _ 78 _ 90 ___ 212 ____ 642

BKViking _____________________ 74 _ 88 _ 52 __ 214 __ 92 _ 62 _ 44 __198 _ 412 __ 28 _ 78 _ 98 ___ 204 ____ 616

hudsonvalley21 _______________60 _ 72 _ 66 __ 198 __ 84 _ 70 _ 36 __190 _ 388 __ 26 _ 80 _ 94 ___ 200 ____ 588 

so_whats_happening _ (-3%) __ 64** 87***43*__194 __95***49*50**_194 _ 388 __ 41* 72**87***__ 200 ___ 588 (606)

RJay _________________________ 52 _ 62 _ 80 __ 194 __ 72 _ 62 _ 48 __182 _ 376 __ 10 _ 70 _ 82 __ 162 ____ 538 

________________________________________________

Extreme Forecast Report

_ DCA _ DonSutherland1 wins with lowest forecast. (Normal also scores a win).

_ NYC _ RodneyS wins with lowest forecast.

_BOS _ RJay wins with highest forecast.

_ORD _ For 1981-2010 anomalies highest scores were near our consensus (for 1991-2020 coldest forecast would win).

_ATL _ RodneyS wins with lowest forecast.

_IAH _ wxallannj wins with lowest forecast.

_DEN _ wxallannj wins with lowest forecast. 

_PHX _ DonSutherland1 (second lowest forecast) has a win, RodneyS a loss (lowest forecast).

_SEA _ Tom, BKViking and Roger Smith would share a win at +0.8 or higher. 

==============================================

How scores would vary with 1991-2020 normals used to score instead

DCA, NYC, ATL, IAH, DEN would all be lower scores (anomalies further below all forecasts).

BOS would all be higher scores (not as much warmer than all forecasts).

 -- nobody at any disadvantage in these cases. The net gain is 64 points vs using 1991-2020 (for these five).

ORD had a higher differential in normal values than other locations. And it fell right into the middle of the forecasts. Those four with forecasts above +1.1 have a higher score by 30. Those between --0.4 and +1.1 have more similar scores which changed up or down by smaller amounts. The lowest forecast from wxallannj (--0.5) lost thirty points relative to score for 1991-2020 (98). RodneyS ended up 18 points lower. Most of the others gained slightly (but not the 30 points gained by warmer forecasts). So only two scores were really impacted significantly with a few smaller adjustments all of them a disadvantage to some extent. 

PHX only changed by 0.1 and in the downward direction unlike almost other changes in the normals. That means that the scores are all 2 points higher than they would be for 1991-2020, except for DonS and RodneyS who would score two higher with 1991-2020. 

SEA would come out in almost the opposite order, the new normal is +1.5 higher and the forecasts were generally between the anomalies that were generated by the two different values. The largest differentials are around 30 points. Wxallannj who up until this forecast was running at a disadvantage did relatively well by the change so that overall we reach a situation where using either normal would make only small and limited differences overall for scoring. 

==============================================

The annual scoring report will be along later today I hope, with an update on the "four seasons" scoring. 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

<<<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-May) - - - - ============ >>>>>>>> 

 

High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. 

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 366 _380 _288 _ 1034 __341 _358 _312 _1011 __2045 __216 _378 _330 __924 ____ 2969

wxdude64 ____________________375 _395 _357 _ 1127 __241 _278 _263 __782 __1909 __283 _383 _335__1001____ 2910

Tom __________________________372 _413 _369 _1154 __200 _289 _298 __787 __1941 __258 _371 _304 __933 ____ 2874

BKViking _____________________ 348 _398 _332 _ 1078 __242 _336 _264 __842 __1920 __226 _354 _362 __942 ____ 2862

 

___ Consensus _______________ 376 _400 _328 _ 1104 __238 _312 _282 __832 __ 1936 __216 _364 _346 __926 ____ 2862

 

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 354 _360 _352 _ 1066 __243 _348 _264 __855 __1921 __170 _348 _368 __886 ____ 2807

wxallannj ______________________318 _372 _282 __972 __190 _270 _338 __798 __1770 __280 _350 _386 _1016 ____ 2786

RodneyS ______________________ 306 _364 _278 __948 __235 _318 _266 __819 __1767 __260 _376 _354 __990 ____ 2757

Scotty Lightning _______________ 330 _358 _274 __962 __156 _326 _292 __774 __1736 __254 _370 _344 __968 ____ 2704

so_whats_happening __________ 369 _355 _250 __974 __274 _364 _197 __835 __1809 __170 _371 _311 __852 ____ 2661

___ Normal ____________________ 306 _324 _244 __874 __128 _ 290 _300 __618 __1592 __314 _350 _332 __996 ____ 2588

RJay __________________________ 326 _340 _334 _1000 __260 _286 _228 __774 __1774 __150 _290 _284 __724 ____ 2498

Roger Smith ___________________ 272 _242 _138 __652 __243 _244 _300 __787 __ 1439 __176 _ 312 _332 __820 ____ 2259

 

Best scores for the locations and regions 

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan 

wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t)

Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May

BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr

___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 0 __  

RodneyS _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb 

Scotty Lightning ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) 

___ Normal ___________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ May 

RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS

High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify.

So far this year, 30 locations out of 45 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April and 8 in May.

Of those, 16 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 14 to coldest.

A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month.

Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been two shared wins (one by three) accounting for the 33 total wins (excl Normal). 

 

FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May ___ TOTAL to date

 

DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 ___ 7-1

Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 ___ 6-1

RJay ___________________ ---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 ___ 5-0

wxallannj ______________ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 ___ 5-0

wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ----- __ ----- ___ 3-0

so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ----- __ ----- ___ 3-0

Normal _________________---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ----- __ 1-0 ___ 3-0

RodneyS ______________ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 2-1 ___ 2-1

Tom __________________ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 1-0 ___ 1-0

BKViking ______________ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 1-0 ___ 1-0

__________________________________________

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Four Seasons contest updated standings

 

FORECASTER __________ SCORE WINTER 2020-2021 ___ POINTS __ SCORE SPRING 2021 _ POINTS __ TOTAL

DonSutherland1 ___________ 730 + 1163 = 1893 ______ 10 ___________1806 _____ 6 ______16

Tom ______________________ 668 + 1033 = 1701 _______ 4 ___________ 1841 ____10 ______14

___ Consensus ____________ 689 + 1088 = 1777 _______ 6 ___________ 1774 _____4 ______10

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 716 + 1047 = 1763 _______ 6 ___________ 1760 _____ 3 _______9

BKViking __________________ 668 + 1094 = 1762 _______5 ___________ 1768 _____4 _______ 9

RodneyS __________________ 616 + 1229 = 1845 _______ 7 ___________ 1528 _____ 1 ______ 8

wxallannj _________________ 668 + 1006 = 1674 _______ 3 ___________ 1780 _____ 5 _______8

wxdude64 ________________ 500 + 1075 = 1575 _______ 1 ____________1835 _____7________8

Scotty Lightning __________ 586 + 1020 = 1606 ________2 ___________ 1684 _____ 1 _______ 3

so_whats_happening ______ dnp + 928 = 928 __ (2/3)__ 1 ___________ 1733 _____ 2 _______ 3

RJay ______________________ 686 + 864 = 1550 ________1 ____________1634 _____ 1 _______ 2

Roger Smith _______________580 + 959 = 1539 ________ 1 ___________ 1300 ______1 _______ 2

___ Normal ________________ 524 + 950 = 1474 ________ 1 ___________1638 ______1 _______ 2

___________________________________________________________

Winter scores are total of Dec 2020 and (Jan+Feb) 2021. 

Points _ 10 for high score, 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, and 1 point for all who enter at least 2/3.

This looks like a wide open contest at the moment. 

(scores for consensus and Normal do not alter progressions of scores for forecasters).

______________________________________________________________

Points for consensus and Normal do not alter the progression of points for forecasters. 

 

[Roger Smith]

FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ current total dep

snowfall to Apr 30___ 5.4 __38.6 _ 38.5 __48.8 _ 44.9 _ 77.0 __ 80.2 _ 12.9 _ 63.2

RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0 _____ 66.3 

__ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3 ______ 84.1 

wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1 _____ 86.3 

wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0 _____ 92.3

hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2 _____ 93.6

Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9 _____101.3

Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3 _____101.7 

RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6 _____111.5

Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5 ____ 115.7

Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 _ 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0 ____ 120.7

snowfall to Apr 30 ___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 ___48.8 _ 44.9 _ 77.0 __ 80.2 _ 12.9 _ 63.2

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(note: no stations recorded more than trace snowfalls in May so these are the final results). 

Best forecasts for each location are highlighted in red. 

Congrats to RJay on his win in the 2020-21 snowfall forecast contest.