Carvers Gap Posted October 11, 2021 Author Share Posted October 11, 2021 Euro seasonals look rough. To echo Cosgrove, wx models really like a GOA low. That is no beuno for here. Biggest feature I am seeing is a ridge over the eastern US which persists as a dominant feature for the next 4-6 months. Very little encouraging in that run - like zip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 48 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Euro seasonals look rough. To echo Cosgrove, wx models really like a GOA low. That is no beuno for here. Biggest feature I am seeing is a ridge over the eastern US which persists as a dominant feature for the next 4-6 months. Very little encouraging in that run - like zip. I have basically no faith in seasonal models. A gulf of Alaska low would generally not be La Nina climo. I believe that normally features a high pressure just south of Alaska off western Canada. Low pressure out there generally is an El Nino feature. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Euro seasonals look rough. To echo Cosgrove, wx models really like a GOA low. That is no beuno for here. Biggest feature I am seeing is a ridge over the eastern US which persists as a dominant feature for the next 4-6 months. Very little encouraging in that run - like zip. Nothing we can do about it if it happens. I believe if we can get a weak pv early on, that may save a month of cold weather for us or close to it. We all just want one winter event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Nothing we can do about it if it happens. I believe if we can get a weak pv early on, that may save a month of cold weather for us or close to it. We all just want one winter event We all want one until we get one. Then we want another one etc….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 12, 2021 Author Share Posted October 12, 2021 I think seasonal models have struggled of late due to analog packages not working. We have seen a lot of "opposites of what we would expect" during the last few years. I do think this La Nina may "reset" the Pacific basin for a time(future winters/not this one), and allow traditional analogs to have some merit again in the future. No idea if the GOA trough holds. It can be stubborn to move. Looks like it is on the GFS right now, but this is still mid-fall so no worries at this time of year. I am guessing that the Euro Weeklies may be favoring a moderate-ish La Nina - I haven't looked at its SSTs so just a guess. If so, that would explain the torch over the East for much of winter...but again, the last few winters have not not played nicely in regards to traditional wx patterns. I would suggest the IO and western Pac will still have a say here. If the MJO is the driver, La Nina may well make it tough for waves to propagate into phases 7, 8, and 1 - will depend on how far back the La Nina stretches to the West. And again, La Nina's behave differently over the forum area. Last year was a fantastic example. Memphis was downright frigid and snow. Never really made it to TRI after the Christmas week cold in December. Would not surprise me to see a similar pattern repeat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 I would be satisfied with a repeat of last Winter here as my local wound up with almost 30" of Snow ( almost all heavy/wet). However, as Carvers alluded to, the true very cold never made it east of the Plateau other than the Christmas shot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 If it's going to be warm all winter, hopefully it stays warm. I would prefer cold, but with niña, its usually tough. We need alot of things to go our way for a colder outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 21 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: If it's going to be warm all winter, hopefully it stays warm. I would prefer cold, but with niña, its usually tough. We need alot of things to go our way for a colder outcome. You are in a good spot in a Nina. It's not warm from the Plateau west and the further west the better. Mod/Weak Nina is probably BN on average for Northern Arkansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 21 hours ago, John1122 said: You are in a good spot in a Nina. It's not warm from the Plateau west and the further west the better. Mod/Weak Nina is probably BN on average for Northern Arkansas. Depending on strength of it. Stronger it is, blowtorch for everyone! No questions asked lol. I still feel if no stratwarm event materializes early on, it will be a long winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Depending on strength of it. Stronger it is, blowtorch for everyone! No questions asked lol. I still feel if no stratwarm event materializes early on, it will be a long winter It won't be a strong Nina most likely. I doubt it's more than weak. A strong has never followed a moderate nina and a moderate only followed a moderate once ever. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 3 hours ago, John1122 said: It won't be a strong Nina most likely. I doubt it's more than weak. A strong has never followed a moderate nina and a moderate only followed a moderate once ever. Great post by John there. Going to post a couple of links for why we double dip with La Nina's and a graphic of how the second in the series is usually weaker. Also, great ENSO update today in regards to winter. Lots of great stuff in those links. Great disco past few days! https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/double-dipping-why-does-la-niña-often-occur-consecutive-winters https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2021-enso-update-la-niña-here?fbclid=IwAR04Y3Kpyl8pTfS19Uy0XuBKxxPVPWLuQ9tlGV7VbBSvpTNijCerDvFLKEU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 It probably doesn't mean anything but man I've been watching the CFS for the last week and it has been consistently SNOWY for much of TN. Idk what the CFS usually shows but I don't remember it being so snow happy in the past. It shows a start of winter in mid-November and that lines up with a lot of posters on other forums and my own analog work. I think we can expect a quick start of winter this year and hopefully some decent blocking in December. Fingers crossed we score before the new year because it seems our chances may start declining after the first half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Agree it'll be tough to get a strong La Nina. Energy content looks very low (strong if Ts upwell efficiently) however it's doubtful. Reason I doubt strong Nina is due to the tendency for convection to poke out of the classic Nina regions to the Dateline. Right there would be a cooler MJO phase. In the mid-long term it disrupts evolution to a strong Nina. So while I favor the weak-mdt La Nina, stormy Mid-South, I'm bearish warm Great Valley. QBO continues to fall, which could help esp Mid-South. We like rate of fall better than bottoming out. Good phase if it can impact things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 5 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Agree it'll be tough to get a strong La Nina. Energy content looks very low (strong if Ts upwell efficiently) however it's doubtful. Reason I doubt strong Nina is due to the tendency for convection to poke out of the classic Nina regions to the Dateline. Right there would be a cooler MJO phase. In the mid-long term it disrupts evolution to a strong Nina. So while I favor the weak-mdt La Nina, stormy Mid-South, I'm bearish warm Great Valley. QBO continues to fall, which could help esp Mid-South. We like rate of fall better than bottoming out. Good phase if it can impact things. Agree on your leaning strongly toward warm for Valley even with weak to mod nina. However, if formidable blocking can set up then a normal to cold Valley. Ala., 2010-11..but, that unlikely as I feel the -PDO will aid the Nina and the odds for warmth greater as any blocking will prob. be hard to be sustainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 57 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Agree on your leaning strongly toward warm for Valley even with weak to mod nina. However, if formidable blocking can set up then a normal to cold Valley. Ala., 2010-11..but, that unlikely as I feel the -PDO will aid the Nina and the odds for warmth greater as any blocking will prob. be hard to be sustainable. Would we have to have a -ao/nao pretty strong for us to have a decent shot at a cold winter? I'm in Arkansas but I dont think it matters much. Also, do you think early winter if we see any cold weather? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 As long as it's not strong, we are in decent shape, especially further west you go. If you take out 2011-2012 which was just an epic warm year everywhere when the Nina acted opposite of normal, every where west of the Apps are normal to below normal for winter in moderate and weak Nina's. Strong and we are almost universally AN. This doesn't have last years either which was moderate and near or BN from the Plateau to Oklahoma, all the way to the Gulf. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Good post as usual John...the thing that concerns me however is even if the La nina stays weak is the -PDO. See if u can come up with. Composites of that criteria. I know the 1960's featured that combo as well as all other enso combos as well and they were all pretty much cold/ snowy. Blocking was formidable that Decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Would we have to have a -ao/nao pretty strong for us to have a decent shot at a cold winter? I'm in Arkansas but I dont think it matters much. Also, do you think early winter if we see any cold weather? As others have mentioned, you are better off even in strong Ninas than areas further East. This year may be similar to last . If so, you'll do fine as you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 35 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Good post as usual John...the thing that concerns me however is even if the La nina stays weak is the -PDO. See if u can come up with. Composites of that criteria. I know the 1960's featured that combo as well as all other enso combos as well and they were all pretty much cold/ snowy. Blocking was formidable that Decade. The PDO and Nina seems to produce mixed results. It was negative this past winter and it was snowy/icy/cold for most of the valley. It was negative in 2010-11 and that was a very snow winter with BN Temps. It was also negative for the 2011-12 Nina and that one was very warm. So the -PDO seems to run the gamut on winter outcomes from cold and snowy to very mild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 It basically boils down to blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 11 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: It basically boils down to blocking. I think a -pna isn't that good for us either unless there is tremendous blocking up top. I guess a -pdo usually promotes a -pna. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 22 hours ago, John1122 said: The PDO and Nina seems to produce mixed results. It was negative this past winter and it was snowy/icy/cold for most of the valley. It was negative in 2010-11 and that was a very snow winter with BN Temps. It was also negative for the 2011-12 Nina and that one was very warm. So the -PDO seems to run the gamut on winter outcomes from cold and snowy to very mild. Actually, for eastern Valley it wasn't great at all snowfall wise other than Christmas event. Ktri was below avg snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Sounds like we probably won’t see much if any severe in November?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Actually, for eastern Valley it wasn't great at all snowfall wise other than Christmas event. Ktri was below avg snowfall. Yes. Nina is tougher along the Apps, but 80 percent of the valley was wintry last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Best deal is -PDO and -AMO. Then instead of a SER with the PDO, the jet stream is pretty much buried all winter across the South. The two multi-decadal indices are about 15 years out of phase with around 30 year phases each. Last time they lined up with mid-60s to early 80s. Did somebody say it used to snow then? About 15 years ago I thought they might line up again as the -PDO took hold. Then it let go (+PDO years) which got some cold in here from 2007-2011. However the +AMO never wants to let go. Right now all I see is warm SSTs across the northern hemisphere except La Nina. Barf! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 On 10/15/2021 at 7:29 PM, Daniel Boone said: Good post as usual John...the thing that concerns me however is even if the La nina stays weak is the -PDO. See if u can come up with. Composites of that criteria. I know the 1960's featured that combo as well as all other enso combos as well and they were all pretty much cold/ snowy. Blocking was formidable that Decade. Most La Ninas have a -PDO average for DJF. Don't forget that 2010-11 was -PDO & cold. Bottom line: +PDO winters do not automatically = Cold winter -PDO winters do not automatically = Warm winter It's more complex than that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 10 hours ago, stadiumwave said: Most La Ninas have a -PDO average for DJF. Don't forget that 2010-11 was -PDO & cold. Bottom line: +PDO winters do not automatically = Cold winter -PDO winters do not automatically = Warm winter It's more complex than that. Yeah. I know that. Over 40 years experience. As mentioned earlier, and take a look at those years. Blocking is key in those colder la nina /-PDO Winters, ala; 2010-11. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 On 10/23/2021 at 9:19 PM, Daniel Boone said: Yeah. I know that. Over 40 years experience. As mentioned earlier, and take a look at those years. Blocking is key in those colder la nina /-PDO Winters, ala; 2010-11. Sorry, did not read any other post. Just chimed in & saw your post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 hour ago, stadiumwave said: Sorry, did not read any other post. Just chimed in & saw your post. It's all good man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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