Winter '21-22 Speculation Thread

[John1122]

On 8/3/2021 at 5:21 PM, Carvers Gap said:

@tnweathernutshared this with me today.  Take a look at what the QBO has done....gif of guy throwing all of his papers up in the air!  LOL.  Well, to quote Bob Kesling, "What a turn of events."  Check out those last two QBO changes.  Not sure many were expecting that.  Double digit negatives now for the QBO for June at 30mb.  That has my attention.  Chaos right there.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

IMBY comparison for flip  a few flip years from + to -. I will try and look at more later today.

Cold season 1979-80 

November +2, late month cold with 1 inch of snowfall Nov 30th.

December -3, cold early with snow showers two days after the Nov 30th snow, warmed mid month, cooled back down and snowed 2 inches on Christmas day into the 26th.

January +2, snowed 4 inches over the first 6 days of the month, then a warm up, snowed the last 3 days of the month, with 7 inches on the 31st. 11 total for the month despite AN temps.

February -9, February was frigid, and snowy. Highs in the low 20s and lows below 0 the first 3 days of the month. 11 days with lows 6 degrees or colder. Snow fell 1st, 2nd, 1/2 inch total. Major snow hit the 6th-10th, 6 inches on the 6th, 2 inches on the 7th, 1/2 inch on the 8th, 1.5 on the 9th, 1 on the 10th. Warmed up a bit but snow stayed on the ground for 23 consecutive days ending February 20th, 2 more inches fell on the 25th/26th. 13.5 inches total.

March -5, most legendary non-1960, 1993 March ever here that I know of, it snowed 6 inches on March 1st-2nd, March 3rd had a low of -10, the coldest March low ever here. March 4th -3 after a high of 20 on March 4th. TYS even got 3 inches of snow and got down to 1 on the 3rd. There were 5 days in March with lows in the 10s or colder. 

April -1.5 with two days of snow that covered the ground mid-month. 35 inches of snow total on the season.

Flipped back to + from April 80-Jul 81.

1981-82 cold season

November -.5, 1/4th inch of snow Nov 21st.

December -4.5, very snowy December. snow fell on the 5th, 9th, 10th, 11th, amounting to 3/4th inch, 3.5 inches fell 16-18th as it snowed around or slightly more than an inch each day. highs in the 20s and lows of 3,4 the followed that. Set the stage for 7 inches of snow Dec 22nd. an inch of snow fell on Dec 25th. 12.5 for the month.

January -5, I was just asking everyone about their memories of this winter the other day. It was frigid with two days of -14 lows. It snowed 9 out of 10 days at one point here with the big event being 7 inches the 13th-14th, 11 total fell in the stretch. It was capped off on Jan 18th with a monster ice event that is an East Tennessee legend. (oddly even though it's extremely memorable and you can easily find the Knox News Sentinel reporting 1 inch of ice in downtown Knoxville, NWS records only show .11 precip falling in Knox that day with a high of 29 degrees. My grandfather recorded 1 inch of ice that day, the Oneida station 20 miles west of me record 1.05 inches of precip. There's virtually no way that's an accurate record for TYS with only .11 precip. I also question the snowfall data from airport sites recorded for the month as they vary pretty far from non-airport stations. Granted MBY was getting lots of upslope for a week +, so maybe that's the difference.

February +1, February was a big thaw month but we still had two two inch snows. 

March +2, but don't be fooled, it was another March snow bonanza, 7 inches on March 7th and 8th. It also turned cold late month, two days in the teens for lows at the end with snow fall both days.

April -4, crazy April, it snowed the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th. 3 inches fell on the 8th/9th.

After 10 months + it flipped back to - August 1983

1983-84 cold season.

November -0.5, 3 snowy days the 12th-14th produced dustings. Otherwise pretty average month temp wise.

December -5, one of the most frustrating months of winter ever in the area. It was icy cold but bone dry when it was cold. We'd warm up, rain, then hit the icebox. Christmas Eve-December 27th was particularly frigid. As usual for the month it warmed up on the 22nd and 23rd, .70 rain fell, then the bottom dropped out, it fell into the 10s late evening on the 23rd, and it just stayed icy cold with snow showers the next few days. It was only 5 on Christmas eve afternoon after the temp fell all day, it only got up to 8 on Christmas day with light snow falling that evening. It was -10 on Christmas morning and -7 the day after and down to 0 on the 27th. That was with only around 1 inch of snow on the ground. That airmass would have ran at -15 to -20 with deep snow cover, maybe even colder. After a brief warm up to 40s and 20s, the last two days of the month were highs in the 20th and lows around 0 after it had of course eked above freezing for some more rain on the 28th.

January -6, January continued the cold/warm/cold pattern of December but it didn't skimp on the snow.  A monster cold front swept through with rain to snow on January 11th and we got 5 inches. 8 more inches fell the 17th-19th. From the 20th-23rd it was upper 10s for highs and well below 0 for lows, with 3 of them -10. The last week of the month was a January thaw.

February -1, February ended up being close to normal temp wise but it had major swings to get there rather than uniform temps. It had a major snow event of 7 inches on the 6th with a -8 degree reading on the 7th and -3 on the 8th. It stayed warm until leap day when the high was 28 and it snowed 4.5 inches.

March -4, March started cold after the big leap day snow here. It was -5 March 1st. There was snow showers the 2nd, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th, rain changed to snow on the 21st late with 2 inches falling on the 22nd. It also came snow showers late on the 29th into the 30th with another rain ending as snow showers event.

April -1, slightly BN but no real winter events to speak of in April.

16 positive months from 1985-86 before a switch in July

1985-86 cold season

November +8, November 1985 was torch city. 

December -8, December was as cold as November was warm but it was bone dry. It was well BN the 3rd-8th, 1 inch of snow fell on the 14th after a mega front passed with temps falling into the lower 20s after night time highs near 50. The next couple of days were icy cold with lows near 10 and highs in the 20s and 30s. It snowed 2 inches on the 20th, it warmed up around Christmas eve but a big Christmas cold front dropped temps from the upper 30s into the 10s and we had snow showers behind the front with 1.5 inches on Christmas. The snow showers continued the day after Christmas and the high was only 12 with a low of 3, we got 1/2 inch from them. It got cold again around the end of the month with single digit lows. It was amazing that there was snow on the ground, the highs were only in the lower 10s but it couldn't quite get below 0.

January -4, it was cold again in January but it was also dry. It was so dry that mid-month we had a crazy streak of days where the highs were in the upper 40s and low 50s but the lows were in the 10s each morning. The month ended on a cold streak with 7 inches of snow from the 26th-28th timeframe with most of it falling on the 27th into the 28th. There was a -8 degree low in there. Under 2 inches of precip for the month

February +3, another warm February but we cashed in during one of the cold snaps. It got cold on the 10th and stayed that way until the 15th, several days of low 20s for highs and low single digits for lows set the stage for a storm, 9 inches of snow fell on the 15th, it warmed into the 50s the next day and rain 3 straight days.

March -2, March started out cold but it was like January, it was dry. There was only around 1.8 inches of total precip for the month.

April +2, generally warm to hot with a couple of cold snaps that caused the +2 to be a little deceptive. 

 

 

[John1122]

Looking at some of those March conditions, that's why to me it never felt like March was the end of winter when I was younger. Nice snowfalls and cold weather were common in March. My normal snowfall in March was around 4-5 inches at one point. The last 20 year average is quite a bit lower in March than the prior 20 year period.

[Carvers Gap]

16 hours ago, John1122 said:

IMBY comparison for flip  a few flip years from + to -. I will try and look at more later today.

Cold season 1979-80 

November +2, late month cold with 1 inch of snowfall Nov 30th.

December -3, cold early with snow showers two days after the Nov 30th snow, warmed mid month, cooled back down and snowed 2 inches on Christmas day into the 26th.

January +2, snowed 4 inches over the first 6 days of the month, then a warm up, snowed the last 3 days of the month, with 7 inches on the 31st. 11 total for the month despite AN temps.

February -9, February was frigid, and snowy. Highs in the low 20s and lows below 0 the first 3 days of the month. 11 days with lows 6 degrees or colder. Snow fell 1st, 2nd, 1/2 inch total. Major snow hit the 6th-10th, 6 inches on the 6th, 2 inches on the 7th, 1/2 inch on the 8th, 1.5 on the 9th, 1 on the 10th. Warmed up a bit but snow stayed on the ground for 23 consecutive days ending February 20th, 2 more inches fell on the 25th/26th. 13.5 inches total.

March -5, most legendary non-1960, 1993 March ever here that I know of, it snowed 6 inches on March 1st-2nd, March 3rd had a low of -10, the coldest March low ever here. March 4th -3 after a high of 20 on March 4th. TYS even got 3 inches of snow and got down to 1 on the 3rd. There were 5 days in March with lows in the 10s or colder. 

April -1.5 with two days of snow that covered the ground mid-month. 35 inches of snow total on the season.

Flipped back to + from April 80-Jul 81.

1981-82 cold season

November -.5, 1/4th inch of snow Nov 21st.

December -4.5, very snowy December. snow fell on the 5th, 9th, 10th, 11th, amounting to 3/4th inch, 3.5 inches fell 16-18th as it snowed around or slightly more than an inch each day. highs in the 20s and lows of 3,4 the followed that. Set the stage for 7 inches of snow Dec 22nd. an inch of snow fell on Dec 25th. 12.5 for the month.

January -5, I was just asking everyone about their memories of this winter the other day. It was frigid with two days of -14 lows. It snowed 9 out of 10 days at one point here with the big event being 7 inches the 13th-14th, 11 total fell in the stretch. It was capped off on Jan 18th with a monster ice event that is an East Tennessee legend. (oddly even though it's extremely memorable and you can easily find the Knox News Sentinel reporting 1 inch of ice in downtown Knoxville, NWS records only show .11 precip falling in Knox that day with a high of 29 degrees. My grandfather recorded 1 inch of ice that day, the Oneida station 20 miles west of me record 1.05 inches of precip. There's virtually no way that's an accurate record for TYS with only .11 precip. I also question the snowfall data from airport sites recorded for the month as they vary pretty far from non-airport stations. Granted MBY was getting lots of upslope for a week +, so maybe that's the difference.

February +1, February was a big thaw month but we still had two two inch snows. 

March +2, but don't be fooled, it was another March snow bonanza, 7 inches on March 7th and 8th. It also turned cold late month, two days in the teens for lows at the end with snow fall both days.

April -4, crazy April, it snowed the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th. 3 inches fell on the 8th/9th.

After 10 months + it flipped back to - August 1983

1983-84 cold season.

November -0.5, 3 snowy days the 12th-14th produced dustings. Otherwise pretty average month temp wise.

December -5, one of the most frustrating months of winter ever in the area. It was icy cold but bone dry when it was cold. We'd warm up, rain, then hit the icebox. Christmas Eve-December 27th was particularly frigid. As usual for the month it warmed up on the 22nd and 23rd, .70 rain fell, then the bottom dropped out, it fell into the 10s late evening on the 23rd, and it just stayed icy cold with snow showers the next few days. It was only 5 on Christmas eve afternoon after the temp fell all day, it only got up to 8 on Christmas day with light snow falling that evening. It was -10 on Christmas morning and -7 the day after and down to 0 on the 27th. That was with only around 1 inch of snow on the ground. That airmass would have ran at -15 to -20 with deep snow cover, maybe even colder. After a brief warm up to 40s and 20s, the last two days of the month were highs in the 20th and lows around 0 after it had of course eked above freezing for some more rain on the 28th.

January -6, January continued the cold/warm/cold pattern of December but it didn't skimp on the snow.  A monster cold front swept through with rain to snow on January 11th and we got 5 inches. 8 more inches fell the 17th-19th. From the 20th-23rd it was upper 10s for highs and well below 0 for lows, with 3 of them -10. The last week of the month was a January thaw.

February -1, February ended up being close to normal temp wise but it had major swings to get there rather than uniform temps. It had a major snow event of 7 inches on the 6th with a -8 degree reading on the 7th and -3 on the 8th. It stayed warm until leap day when the high was 28 and it snowed 4.5 inches.

March -4, March started cold after the big leap day snow here. It was -5 March 1st. There was snow showers the 2nd, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th, rain changed to snow on the 21st late with 2 inches falling on the 22nd. It also came snow showers late on the 29th into the 30th with another rain ending as snow showers event.

April -1, slightly BN but no real winter events to speak of in April.

16 positive months from 1985-86 before a switch in July

1985-86 cold season

November +8, November 1985 was torch city. 

December -8, December was as cold as November was warm but it was bone dry. It was well BN the 3rd-8th, 1 inch of snow fell on the 14th after a mega front passed with temps falling into the lower 20s after night time highs near 50. The next couple of days were icy cold with lows near 10 and highs in the 20s and 30s. It snowed 2 inches on the 20th, it warmed up around Christmas eve but a big Christmas cold front dropped temps from the upper 30s into the 10s and we had snow showers behind the front with 1.5 inches on Christmas. The snow showers continued the day after Christmas and the high was only 12 with a low of 3, we got 1/2 inch from them. It got cold again around the end of the month with single digit lows. It was amazing that there was snow on the ground, the highs were only in the lower 10s but it couldn't quite get below 0.

January -4, it was cold again in January but it was also dry. It was so dry that mid-month we had a crazy streak of days where the highs were in the upper 40s and low 50s but the lows were in the 10s each morning. The month ended on a cold streak with 7 inches of snow from the 26th-28th timeframe with most of it falling on the 27th into the 28th. There was a -8 degree low in there. Under 2 inches of precip for the month

February +3, another warm February but we cashed in during one of the cold snaps. It got cold on the 10th and stayed that way until the 15th, several days of low 20s for highs and low single digits for lows set the stage for a storm, 9 inches of snow fell on the 15th, it warmed into the 50s the next day and rain 3 straight days.

March -2, March started out cold but it was like January, it was dry. There was only around 1.8 inches of total precip for the month.

April +2, generally warm to hot with a couple of cold snaps that caused the +2 to be a little deceptive. 

 

 

Great post.  I miss those winters.

This is an odd flip this time.  The QBO never really cycled during the last negative cycle.  It left the loop early.  It has done the same thing with the positive cycle.  It is almost like we are actually entering a true negative stage this time where last time was an off cycle head fake.  Will be interesting to see if this current negative trend continues.  After many, many normal cycles...it has gone pretty wonky.  I don't completely trust it right now, but I definitely like the trend.  I would seem this sets the stage for an early start to winter, but I have no crystal ball on that!  LOL.   I almost feel like this is has the potential to have a 17-18 cold snap which was brutal cold but dry.  Oddly, I am a little less worried about cold this winter, and maybe more concerned that precip is sparse.  I suspect we may have some chances with NW flow stuff.  The new Euro seasonal is banging the drum for a big ridge out west for December and blocking in Greenland which lasts in January.   Very much hoping we are at the beginning of a new -NAO cycle.

[nrgjeff]

Yeah the ECMWF monthlies are about as un-inspiring as it gets for precip. Of course it only takes a couple systems to overcome dismal means. Eh, I can deal with cold and sunny - emphasis on the sunny part.

QBO head-faked down the last negative cycle, before finally going negative for real the following year. We'll see if this year is the same for-real following previous year headfake. Rate of change will be important too as discussed previous seasons.

[John1122]

No idea if it means anything for us, but the southern hemisphere is having a brutal winter. Antarctica has been below -80c. The coldest temp ever recorded on Earth is -89c. Places in Brazil that haven't seen snow in 60 years or more are seeing snow. Other places in South America have seen record cold and snow too.

Australia and New Zealand are also seeing snowfall at unusual elevations along with well below normal temperatures. Canberra, which rarely ever sees flakes outside the Australian Alps 3 hours away, had a stretch with snow 4 of 5 days. It's been an all winter thing too. Antarctica started getting below -100f in June and soon began firing monster cold blasts northward. Oceana and South America started seeing brutal winter conditions in July and they're still occurring into August. 

The Austrian Alps in the northern hemisphere are also seeing very early first snowfalls with record lows in Europe. 

I was watching an  Australian met and he suggested the low solar minimum and weak maximum that mirrors the little ice age are very likely contributing to the colder than average weather. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

PDO action from Raindance:

 

[PowellVolz]

PDO action from Raindance:
 

What’s that mean for us?


.

[John1122]

4 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

What’s that mean for us?


.

+PDO is a cold signal for us but also a BN precip signal. But as Jeff often points out, some of our best snow events happen when we're in BN precjp patterns. If we're in AN precip patterns in winter it is normally because we are seeing lots of cutters. 

[PowellVolz]

+PDO is a cold signal for us but also a BN precip signal. But as Jeff often points out, some of our best snow events happen when we're in BN precjp patterns. If we're in AN precip patterns in winter it is normally because we are seeing lots of cutters. 

Gotcha


.

[Carvers Gap]

I like this thread today!!!!

[Mr. Kevin]

I don't think many people going into last winter thought it would be as cold as it was, especially with a -ao and nao that prevailed. Of course with climate change, winters now wont be as cold as they used to be years ago. As long as we can sneak in one or two winter storms, I'm satisfied. 

[raindancewx]

You guys were the winners when I looked at the importance of the NAO to snowfall nationally for 1950-51 to 2020-21. I used 'normalized' on the map, but the raw math is better really, just top ten -NAO winter average snowfall divided by top ten +NAO winter average snowfall, on the same scale (10 inches average for everybody).

"Winter" is all snow that falls July-June if based on how the NAO behaved in winter. The normalized is me pretending to measure the difference from the NAO on a ten-inch standard for everyone. 

Snow	+NAO	-NAO		+NAO	-NAO	normalized	raw
Caribou	0.20%	8.30%		10.02	10.83	8.10%	8.08%
Bangor	-9.30%	20.70%		9.07	12.07	30.00%	33.08%
Boston	-6.00%	1.20%		9.4	10.12	7.20%	7.66%
Albany	-16.30%	0.05%		8.37	10.005	16.35%	19.53%
Buffalo	-19.70%	13.60%		8.03	11.36	33.30%	41.47%
NYC	-4.20%	22.00%		9.58	12.2	26.20%	27.35%
Philly	-14.80%	42.20%		8.52	14.22	57.00%	66.90%
Harrisburg	-10.60%	29.50%		8.94	12.95	40.10%	44.85%
Pittsburgh	-15.00%	14.00%		8.5	11.4	29.00%	34.12%
Richmond	-4.70%	46.20%		9.53	14.62	50.90%	53.41%
Roanoke	-21.30%	63.80%		7.87	16.38	85.10%	108.13%
Charlotte	-23.90%	69.00%		7.61	16.9	92.90%	122.08%
Elkins	-10.80%	11.10%		8.92	11.11	21.90%	24.55%
Cleveland	-16.70%	-1.70%		8.33	9.83	15.00%	18.01%
Cincy	-26.10%	34.50%		7.39	13.45	60.60%	82.00%
Louisville	-22.50%	46.00%		7.75	14.6	68.50%	88.39%
Paducah	-10.90%	69.80%		8.91	16.98	80.70%	90.57%
Indianapolis	-28.40%	22.20%		7.16	12.22	50.60%	70.67%
Detroit	-13.70%	-5.90%		8.63	9.41	7.80%	9.04%
Chicago	-22.20%	23.70%		7.78	12.37	45.90%	59.00%
Marquette	10.40%	-16.40%		11.04	8.36	-26.80%	-24.28%
Des Moines	-15.20%	17.90%		8.48	11.79	33.10%	39.03%
Omaha	10.80%	74.50%		11.08	17.45	63.70%	57.49%
Nashville	-49.50%	158.50%		5.05	25.85	208.00%	411.88%
Memphis	-35.20%	107.50%		6.48	20.75	142.70%	220.22%
Knoxville	-49.80%	118.70%		5.02	21.87	168.50%	335.66%
Little Rock	-20%	85.60%		8	18.56	105.60%	132.00%
St Louis	-40.40%	29.60%		5.96	12.96	70.00%	117.45%
OKC	-19.30%	40.80%		8.07	14.08	60.10%	74.47%
Tulsa	-22.70%	49.00%		7.73	14.9	71.70%	92.76%
Witchita	-13.70%	39.40%		8.63	13.94	53.10%	61.53%
Dodge City	-27%	2.30%		7.3	10.23	29.30%	40.14%
Kansas City	-40.90%	43.50%		5.91	14.35	84.40%	142.81%
Amarillo	-8.70%	-1.50%		9.13	9.85	7.20%	7.89%
El Paso	19.80%	10.20%		11.98	11.02	-9.60%	-8.01%
Albuquerque	-9.20%	23.90%		9.08	12.39	33.10%	36.45%
Los Alamos	-11.40%	18.30%		8.86	11.83	29.70%	33.52%
Flagstaff	-8.90%	9.10%		9.11	10.91	18.00%	19.76%
Pueblo	10.50%	-13.40%		11.05	8.66	-23.90%	-21.63%
Denver	-0.80%	-10.10%		9.92	8.99	-9.30%	-9.38%
Grand Junction	-25.40%	25.50%		7.46	12.55	50.90%	68.23%
Cheyenne	13.70%	-18.50%		11.37	8.15	-32.20%	-28.32%
Billings	-8.60%	10.00%		9.14	11	18.60%	20.35%
Bismarck	-3.70%	-2.60%		9.63	9.74	1.10%	1.14%
Rapid City	5.30%	3.10%		10.53	10.31	-2.20%	-2.09%
Minneapolis	-6.50%	-9.20%		9.35	9.08	-2.70%	-2.89%
Missoula	-23.50%	6.30%		7.65	10.63	29.80%	38.95%
Boise	-23.90%	15.60%		7.61	11.56	39.50%	51.91%
Pocatello	-18.90%	1.20%		8.11	10.12	20.10%	24.78%
Salt Lake City	-21.40%	11.20%		7.86	11.12	32.60%	41.48%
Reno	-10.60%	10.00%		8.94	11	20.60%	23.04%
Spokane	-20.50%	-1.50%		7.95	9.85	19.00%	23.90%

 

[John1122]

14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You guys were the winners when I looked at the importance of the NAO to snowfall nationally for 1950-51 to 2020-21. I used 'normalized' on the map, but the raw math is better really, just top ten -NAO winter average snowfall divided by top ten +NAO winter average snowfall, on the same scale (10 inches average for everybody).

"Winter" is all snow that falls July-June if based on how the NAO behaved in winter. The normalized is me pretending to measure the difference from the NAO on a ten-inch standard for everyone. 

Snow	+NAO	-NAO		+NAO	-NAO	normalized	raw
Caribou	0.20%	8.30%		10.02	10.83	8.10%	8.08%
Bangor	-9.30%	20.70%		9.07	12.07	30.00%	33.08%
Boston	-6.00%	1.20%		9.4	10.12	7.20%	7.66%
Albany	-16.30%	0.05%		8.37	10.005	16.35%	19.53%
Buffalo	-19.70%	13.60%		8.03	11.36	33.30%	41.47%
NYC	-4.20%	22.00%		9.58	12.2	26.20%	27.35%
Philly	-14.80%	42.20%		8.52	14.22	57.00%	66.90%
Harrisburg	-10.60%	29.50%		8.94	12.95	40.10%	44.85%
Pittsburgh	-15.00%	14.00%		8.5	11.4	29.00%	34.12%
Richmond	-4.70%	46.20%		9.53	14.62	50.90%	53.41%
Roanoke	-21.30%	63.80%		7.87	16.38	85.10%	108.13%
Charlotte	-23.90%	69.00%		7.61	16.9	92.90%	122.08%
Elkins	-10.80%	11.10%		8.92	11.11	21.90%	24.55%
Cleveland	-16.70%	-1.70%		8.33	9.83	15.00%	18.01%
Cincy	-26.10%	34.50%		7.39	13.45	60.60%	82.00%
Louisville	-22.50%	46.00%		7.75	14.6	68.50%	88.39%
Paducah	-10.90%	69.80%		8.91	16.98	80.70%	90.57%
Indianapolis	-28.40%	22.20%		7.16	12.22	50.60%	70.67%
Detroit	-13.70%	-5.90%		8.63	9.41	7.80%	9.04%
Chicago	-22.20%	23.70%		7.78	12.37	45.90%	59.00%
Marquette	10.40%	-16.40%		11.04	8.36	-26.80%	-24.28%
Des Moines	-15.20%	17.90%		8.48	11.79	33.10%	39.03%
Omaha	10.80%	74.50%		11.08	17.45	63.70%	57.49%
Nashville	-49.50%	158.50%		5.05	25.85	208.00%	411.88%
Memphis	-35.20%	107.50%		6.48	20.75	142.70%	220.22%
Knoxville	-49.80%	118.70%		5.02	21.87	168.50%	335.66%
Little Rock	-20%	85.60%		8	18.56	105.60%	132.00%
St Louis	-40.40%	29.60%		5.96	12.96	70.00%	117.45%
OKC	-19.30%	40.80%		8.07	14.08	60.10%	74.47%
Tulsa	-22.70%	49.00%		7.73	14.9	71.70%	92.76%
Witchita	-13.70%	39.40%		8.63	13.94	53.10%	61.53%
Dodge City	-27%	2.30%		7.3	10.23	29.30%	40.14%
Kansas City	-40.90%	43.50%		5.91	14.35	84.40%	142.81%
Amarillo	-8.70%	-1.50%		9.13	9.85	7.20%	7.89%
El Paso	19.80%	10.20%		11.98	11.02	-9.60%	-8.01%
Albuquerque	-9.20%	23.90%		9.08	12.39	33.10%	36.45%
Los Alamos	-11.40%	18.30%		8.86	11.83	29.70%	33.52%
Flagstaff	-8.90%	9.10%		9.11	10.91	18.00%	19.76%
Pueblo	10.50%	-13.40%		11.05	8.66	-23.90%	-21.63%
Denver	-0.80%	-10.10%		9.92	8.99	-9.30%	-9.38%
Grand Junction	-25.40%	25.50%		7.46	12.55	50.90%	68.23%
Cheyenne	13.70%	-18.50%		11.37	8.15	-32.20%	-28.32%
Billings	-8.60%	10.00%		9.14	11	18.60%	20.35%
Bismarck	-3.70%	-2.60%		9.63	9.74	1.10%	1.14%
Rapid City	5.30%	3.10%		10.53	10.31	-2.20%	-2.09%
Minneapolis	-6.50%	-9.20%		9.35	9.08	-2.70%	-2.89%
Missoula	-23.50%	6.30%		7.65	10.63	29.80%	38.95%
Boise	-23.90%	15.60%		7.61	11.56	39.50%	51.91%
Pocatello	-18.90%	1.20%		8.11	10.12	20.10%	24.78%
Salt Lake City	-21.40%	11.20%		7.86	11.12	32.60%	41.48%
Reno	-10.60%	10.00%		8.94	11	20.60%	23.04%
Spokane	-20.50%	-1.50%		7.95	9.85	19.00%	23.90%

 

1959-60 is such an epic and unprecedented winter for the region it likely moves the needle by itself for the -NAO side. 

That said, raging +NAO winters here aren't kind unless the Pacific cooperates. Then they can be interesting. Dream scenario is the -NAO/+PNA combo. 

I'd love to see that map with a -PNA vs +PNA, and/or -EPO vs +EPO. 

[raindancewx]

Can't really do it for the EPO, because there is no index tracked for December because of how it behaves that month. I am working on one for the WPO, because that's a big deal for US temperatures in Feb-Apr, and also Sept-Nov, which are both snowy periods in the West. The +WPO coupled with the real cold Nino 4 is actually real rare in terms of winters. You had a record +WPO winter with a La Nina, it's nearly unheard of. It was a super -WPO in Fall too.

[John1122]

August ENSO forecast updates are 65 percent Nina DJF from the human forecasters, 55 percent JFM. Model forecasts remain in favor of neutral ENSO throughout winter, though less strongly than they did last month. It will most likely be a weak Nina if it does come to pass. Only 2 of 26 models used in the forecast have moderate Nina conditions for winter. The Euro actually has a weak El Nino forecast. 

[George001]

Over the past week, the strength of the La Niña has drastically increased. After the development of La Niña stalled out for a bit, we have more than made up for that lost ground with the Enso 3.4 region dropping from -.4 to -.9 degrees Celsius, which is already borderline moderate La Niña conditions. To put this into perspective, right now the enso 3.4 region is cooler than the last CFSv2 runs mean peak for the entire winter, which was -.8. Another thing to note is that if you look at the blue members, which are the most recent forecast members, all of them are below the mean of -.8. This suggests that the strength of the La Niña is being underestimated by quite a bit on the models. At this point, the question isn’t whether or not we get cold neutral or weak La Niña, but whether we get a weak-borderline moderate La Niña at -.8 to -.9 and it stalls out (possible if the subsurface doesn’t keep cooling off, it has stalled in recent weeks), or it keeps strengthening and we get a 2010-2011 redux (-1.6 peak, -2.4 MEI. Extremely strong La Niña).

[John1122]

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

Over the past week, the strength of the La Niña has drastically increased. After the development of La Niña stalled out for a bit, we have more than made up for that lost ground with the Enso 3.4 region dropping from -.4 to -.9 degrees Celsius, which is already borderline moderate La Niña conditions. To put this into perspective, right now the enso 3.4 region is cooler than the last CFSv2 runs mean peak for the entire winter, which was -.8. Another thing to note is that if you look at the blue members, which are the most recent forecast members, all of them are below the mean of -.8. This suggests that the strength of the La Niña is being underestimated by quite a bit on the models. At this point, the question isn’t whether or not we get cold neutral or weak La Niña, but whether we get a weak-borderline moderate La Niña at -.8 to -.9 and it stalls out (possible if the subsurface doesn’t keep cooling off, it has stalled in recent weeks), or it keeps strengthening and we get a 2010-2011 redux (-1.6 peak, -2.4 MEI. Extremely strong La Niña).

It would be a first if there was even a moderate follow up Nina. Moderate Ninas like 2020-21 have only had a follow up Nina one time since ENSO has been recorded and it was weak.  The vast majority of the time La Nada follows a moderate Nina. We will see if it pulls off a first and goes moderate or stronger. 

[Mr. Kevin]

Opinions on qbo moving forward 

 

[John1122]

Dacula Weather has these handy maps to look at regarding the QBO. It's better as a rule if it is falling through winter. But those forecasts above would generally be good news according to these reanalysis maps.

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_qbo_index.php

[Mr. Kevin]

53 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Dacula Weather has these handy maps to look at regarding the QBO. It's better as a rule if it is falling through winter. But those forecasts above would generally be good news according to these reanalysis maps.

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_qbo_index.php

I know the climate has changed dramatically since the 60s, but I looked at the qbo for the colder winters back then, especially the 70s and the qbo was moderate negative in every one of them for dec-feb. It was interesting to me 

[John1122]

19 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I know the climate has changed dramatically since the 60s, but I looked at the qbo for the colder winters back then, especially the 70s and the qbo was moderate negative in every one of them for dec-feb. It was interesting to me 

I'm not sure what happened in the 60s but it was a mini-ice age. Every winter then was cold/snowy it seems like.

[Carvers Gap]

New CANSIPS is showing a very cold pattern for November.  Blocking is depicted in EPO and Greenland regions with a deep trough over much of NA.   If true, like it or not....our best shot at winter may be very early in the season, but take that with a huge grain of salt.

[Mr. Kevin]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

New CANSIPS is showing a very cold pattern for November.  Blocking is depicted in EPO and Greenland regions with a deep trough over much of NA.   If true, like it or not....our best shot at winter may be very early in the season, but take that with a huge grain of salt.

Carver, what about dec, jan, and feb? U got maps for those? Will be very difficult to get any sustained cold weather for November, outside the higher elevations imo.

[John1122]

Models were hinting at a SSW event in late November or Early December. That could pay dividends in January if it comes to pass. Salt boulders with that one too. 

[Carvers Gap]

16 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, what about dec, jan, and feb? U got maps for those? Will be very difficult to get any sustained cold weather for November, outside the higher elevations imo.

Torch city.  I haven't seen the Euro seasonal yet though, just CANSIPS.  The CFSv2 is usually all over the place from run to run.  The Euro Weeklies are hinting at some cold pressing SE during the early to mid part of November.  

My initial thoughts have been for a cold December.  HOWEVER, if the cold arrives in early November, we could actually see a thaw at some point in December.  LOTS of speculation there on my part as there are several solution paths on the table, and I am only talking about one path in (cold in November).  If the cold arrives later in November, that lends itself to a cold December as a whole.  Throw in what John is saying and it would look something like this.....cold November ---> thaw at some point during December --->  cold  arriving again by mid to late January.  What we really don't want to see are the high latitude regions emptied of their cold source during November.  Might make it tough to reload, and some models are hinting at that solution.

But ya'll know the drill, this is speculation and this could go any of several different directions not mentioned and usually does.  Chaos is difficult to predict.  When we are discussion things in the 4-10 week range, that needs to be taken (as John notes) with huge boulders of salt.

[Carvers Gap]

18 hours ago, John1122 said:

Models were hinting at a SSW event in late November or Early December. That could pay dividends in January if it comes to pass. Salt boulders with that one too. 

That would be early.  Are early SSWs more favorable for the EC?

[John1122]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That would be early.  Are early SSWs more favorable for the EC?

Nov '58 had a SSW

Dec '58 was -5 to -7 across the state, January '59 was around -3.

Early Dec '65 had an SSW

Jan '66 was -6 to -8 across the area, Feb '66 was -2 to -3

Nov '68 had a SSW

Dec '68 was  -5 to -7 across the area, and January '69 was around -3

Dec '81 had a SSW

Jan '82 was -5 to -7 in the area Feb '82 was cold from the Plateau and west at around -3 to -5 but near normal far east

Dec '87 had a SSW

Jan '88 was -4 to -6 in the area, Feb '88 was -3 to -5

Dec '98 had a SSW that produced no wintery effects here, temps were AN the next two months.

Those are the only Nov/Dec events that I can find listed. The 1985 event was underway in late December but peaked on Jan 1st 1985.

Some happen to late to matter much for winter here, but most of them seemed to produce some really cold temps and snow chances. A few, like 1998, were complete duds.

 

 

 

[Mr. Kevin]

37 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Nov '58 had a SSW

Dec '58 was -5 to -7 across the state, January '59 was around -3.

Early Dec '65 had an SSW

Jan '66 was -6 to -8 across the area, Feb '66 was -2 to -3

Nov '68 had a SSW

Dec '68 was  -5 to -7 across the area, and January '69 was around -3

Dec '81 had a SSW

Jan '82 was -5 to -7 in the area Feb '82 was cold from the Plateau and west at around -3 to -5 but near normal far east

Dec '87 had a SSW

Jan '88 was -4 to -6 in the area, Feb '88 was -3 to -5

Dec '98 had a SSW that produced no wintery effects here, temps were AN the next two months.

Those are the only Nov/Dec events that I can find listed. The 1985 event was underway in late December but peaked on Jan 1st 1985.

Some happen to late to matter much for winter here, but most of them seemed to produce some really cold temps and snow chances. A few, like 1998, were complete duds.

John, I think if we have one early in November, that would be bad, outside the favored colder regions. Sometimes SSW's quickly respond and sometimes it takes a while. That is the tough part. The weaker the pv, the better regardless but definitely dont want any type of strong pv

 

 

 

[John1122]

12 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

John, I think if we have one early in November, that would be bad, outside the favored colder regions. Sometimes SSW's quickly respond and sometimes it takes a while. That is the tough part. The weaker the pv, the better regardless but definitely dont want any type of strong pv

 

That I could find there hasn't been a SSW earlier than late November recorded.  I believe the person I saw talking about it was saying late November/early December was the hinted time frame but as mentioned, that's just pure spitballing off some very long range modeling that was showing rapid 10mb warming there later in November.

[jaxjagman]

On 10/4/2021 at 10:48 AM, Carvers Gap said:

New CANSIPS is showing a very cold pattern for November.  Blocking is depicted in EPO and Greenland regions with a deep trough over much of NA.   If true, like it or not....our best shot at winter may be very early in the season, but take that with a huge grain of salt.

That looks brutal for Jan especially for severe.Mid level ridge in the SE and a Upper level ridge extending westward somewhere along the the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas.The ENSO already is looking more like the NINA in 2011-2012,with the exception this is colder right now

Nothing will probably break the severe outbreak of Jan21-23 of 1999,but this was during a moderate NINA and the most active severe January's on record with 2012 coming in 2nd.Summer was just as brutal in 2012,Nashville hit its all time record high 109F 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_January_21–23,_1999