weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 27 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: The outflow boundary extends well into central TX as well, and there's also a lot more instability in that vicinity compared to here it seems. Maybe we'll get a local expansion of the tornado watch if the situation warrants it later on, but things might also get squall-ish by the time storms arrive here. Still a lot of time to watch the setup evolve locally, but I think the tornado threat will maximize off to our west/southwest where the watch currently covers. Yup. SPC originally had dfw included in the MD discussion and pulled it back. This was the latest from FWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 ...New Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This afternoon through Thursday/ Scattered showers and storms continue to move across parts of North TX. While intensity and coverage has decreased over the last couple of hours, there`s still some lightning with some of the storms. This activity will continue to move out of our area....as renewed showers and storms develop later this afternoon and evening. Latest high-res guidance continues to show this development with some of the storms quickly becoming strong or severe. With plenty of low-level moisture, instability, and shear the environment definitely support this activity. Now, one thing that remains uncertain is the influence of the morning convection to the coverage of severe storms. Right now, most areas across the northwest and along the Red River are pretty stable with the deep coverage of clouds. However, we`ve been seeing some clouds clearing to our southwest, just east of the dryline that could result in the first round of re-development later this afternoon. If I were to pick, the first area to monitor will be to our west/southwest (along/south I-20 and west of I-35). As storms develop and continue to move northeastward, they will be capable of producing large hail, isolated damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch has been issued for the counties west of the DFW Metroplex until 02Z, and additional watches may be needed this evening. Still, the coverage of severe weather will depend on how much the airmass is able to destabilize. The initial development will likely remain scattered, but as they move eastward this evening they will likely merge into a cluster or line. While the severe potential remains tonight, there will be a transition to a heavy rain flooding threat through the overnight hours for all North and Central TX. We`re still expecting rainfall totals through Thursday around 1-3" over most locations, but there could be isolated instances of 4-6"+ in some areas. A Flash Flood Watch might be needed if confidence in widespread higher precip totals increases. Showers and storms will continue into Thursday as the low level pressure system moves across Central TX. The potential for lightning and strong/severe weather will shift to the east/southeast by Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 Beautiful supercell near Lawn TX, already has a pretty tight couplet and hook on radar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 Is this what I think it is? It's not in the best radar spot so I'm not sure. Velocity scans are inconclusive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, mob1 said: Is this what I think it is? It's not in the best radar spot so I'm not sure. Velocity scans are inconclusive as well. KDFX radar is much closer to that storm, and it is severe warned, not tornado warned now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Chinook said: KDFX radar is much closer to that storm, and it is severe warned, not tornado warned now. Perhaps too close. Either way, it's an impressive cell with a nice hail core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 Very hazy as I follow supercells east of Del Rio, TX. I can either go east and play it close (hoping low level rotation tightens up after 00z) or take a more southeasterly route to attempt to see more structure. The road network is very limited. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 Enjoyed the response from Verizon - "If you lose cellphone coverage, contact us for help." 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Storm near Uvalde is tor warned. Radar indicated, stay safe @Quincy and good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 29, 2021 Author Share Posted April 29, 2021 Not liking that storm heading into the San Antonio metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 One of the earlier STW had hail to softball size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Not liking that storm heading into the San Antonio metro... SPC issued a MD about it... ouch Mesoscale Discussion 0459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Areas affected...South-central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 120... Valid 290001Z - 290130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 120 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for very large hail, wind damage and possibly a tornado will move eastward into the San Antonio Metro around 8 pm central. DISCUSSION...The latest radar shows a cluster of severe storms located about 60 statute miles to the west of San Antonio. Ahead of these storms, the RAP is analying a pocket of strong instability with MLCAPE near 4500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear near 50 kt. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the stronger updrafts. Wind gusts exceeding 65 knots may also occur, with the possibility of wind driven hail. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/29/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 I don't know what happened to the velocity scans in the last minute, but it looks strong Quote At 721 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over D'Hanis, or near Hondo, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Surprised this isn't Tor Warned. Storm quickly got it's act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 San Antonio is going to get rolled.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 KEWX has tops up to 65,000ft on the supercell entering west side of San Antonio, with MLCAPE of up to 4500 feeding into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 What size of hail reports are they getting out of that thing?2-3” hail.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Tennis ball to baseball sized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Couplet ramping up as it approaches the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 This is obviously keeping the chances for a tornado in the south San Antonio metro pretty high. Right now it is a radar-based tornado warning (no confirmation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Getting nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Just now, Chargers09 said: Getting nervous Do you live in the northern or southern half of the metro? Also, this storm could produce some pretty large hail across the entire metro so if you have a vehicle outside you might wanna protect it while you can still go outside. Stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Central. Medical center area (410/10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Also a tornado watch issued for us in the DFW Metro. Storm in northern half of Tarrant county probably bears watching for you @Powerball and I. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 10% tor contour added on 01z OTLK for S TX as well as hatched 30 wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Chargers09 said: Central. Medical center area (410/10) Hopefully the storm somehow weakens soon, but yeah I'd say prepare for some bigly hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Tornado warning coming for the Tarrant Co storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: Also a tornado watch issued for us in the DFW Metro. Storm in northern half of Tarrant county probably bears watching for you @Powerball and I. FWD noting that tornado potential might be increasing with this storm as well... I'd rather not have to deal with DFW and San Antonio getting pummeled simultaneously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Looks like DFW was taken out of the enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Just now, radarman said: Tornado warning coming for the Tarrant Co storm. Along with hail to 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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