April 23rd/24th Deep South Event

[CryHavoc]

Here we go again, another potential day of severe weather targeting the deep south.  E/Central Texas/Central OK/LA/Sern MS in the crosshairs for Day 4, and extreme Sern MS/AL/SWern GA and the panhandle on tap for a round of rough weather on D5.

Perhaps even more notable, the SPC is already talking about issuing Day 7 guidance for a 15% region for Monday/Tuesday, which would be April 26th and 27th.

A 15% region on Day 7 is pretty ominous.

 

 

[nwohweather]

Day 7 from Wichita to Waco, gotta love it. One of these days I need to take a week in Oklahoma and go chase

[ATDoel]

holy model divergence.  I assume the HRR is far more likely here, why is the NAM showing such a high level event?

[Chinook]

Areas of convection will develop in AL, GA, and SC. The MCS that will happen tonight in TX/LA will move east, weaken, and possibly provide some outflow boundaries for later convection. I think the parameters are pretty decent. The SPC currently has 15% wind/ 15% hatched hail/ 5% tornado

 

UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to ENH for parts of Alabama and Georgia, with up to 10% hatched tornado risk.

 

[nrgjeff]

That SREF is a lot more interesting than I expected. Thought the NAM and HRRR are overdone, and they may be. ARWs show potential, but messy, which seems most reasonable. SREF apparently sides with the more bullish suite. 

Meteorological target: Talladega National Forest. Yeah I'll stay home and arm chair that terrain! 

[brianc33710]

I find it odd that the BMX & SPC has Bham Enhanced when clearly the models show the best conditions well south of us.

[janetjanet998]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
905 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2021  
  
GAC037-061-099-241345-  
/O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210424T1345Z/  
CLAY GA-CALHOUN GA-EARLY GA-  
905 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2021  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM EDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN AND NORTHERN EARLY COUNTIES  
IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
          
AT 905 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BLAKELY, MOVING  
EAST AT 60 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

[janetjanet998]

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0756 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2021  
  
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN  
ALABAMA TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND A FEW TORNADOES.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS, A PROGRESSIVE AND LARGELY ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM  
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM CA AND NORTHWESTERN MC ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST.  THE MAIN PERTURBATION -- AND  
UPPER-AIR INFLUENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL -- WILL BE A TROUGH  
INITIALLY OVER EASTERN OK AND CENTRAL/EAST TX.  THIS PERTURBATION  
SHOULD ELONGATE AND ASSUME MORE-PRONOUNCED POSITIVE TILT THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  BY 00Z, IT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD TO EASTERN KY, THE TN  
VALLEY REGION, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS, THEN BY 12Z, EXTEND ROUGHLY  
FROM NJ OVER THE CAROLINAS TO GA.  
  
AT THE SURFACE, THE 11Z ANALYSIS REVEALED A COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE  
SOUTH, WITH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND MULTIPLE  
PRESSURE MINIMA OVER AR/MS/LA, AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AR,  
NORTHWESTERN LA, AND THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.  TO ITS EAST, CONVECTIVE/  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE DRAWN THROUGH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN AL TO  
SOUTHERN LA, AND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL LA.  A  
WARM/MARINE FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM THE AL LOW SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE  
CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO WEST-CENTRAL FL.  
  
BY 00Z, THE LOW-PRESSURE AREA MOVE TO THE AREA BETWEEN HSV-TYS, WITH  
SOME MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC POSITION, RELATED TO THE  
MASS/PRESSURE-PERTURBATION EFFECTS OF MCS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND  
SOUTHEAST.  THE WARM THE COLD FRONT THEN SHOULD EXTEND FROM EASTERN  
AL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LA AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.  THE MARINE/  
WARM FRONT WILL BE DELAYED/MODULATED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY  
AFTERNOON BY OUTFLOW FROM AN ONGOING MCS, BUT THEN RETREAT SOMEWHAT  
DIFFUSELY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT.  A NEW SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE  
SOUTHERN WV/SOUTHWESTERN VA AREA, THEN DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AROUND 06-09Z.  BY 12Z, THE COLD  
FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS AND ADJOINING SOUNDS,  
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHWESTERN FL.  
   
..SOUTHEAST  
  
AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT  
FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES AS IT MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN AL, SOUTHERN GA, AND PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE.  SEE  
TORNADO WATCH 106 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM  
UPDATES.  
  
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE INITIAL COMPLEX MAY OUTPACE  
WARM/MARINE-FRONTAL INCURSION INTO SOUTHERN GA, BUT ALSO SHOULD  
ENCOUNTER A BOUNDARY LAYER EXPERIENCING DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING AND  
DESTABILIZATION BENEATH BROKEN CLOUD COVER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
SUGGEST 500-1200 J/KG MLCAPE MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GA, DESPITE  
THE GREATER MOISTURE LAGGING TO THE WEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE  
TRAILING OUTFLOW (AND OUTFLOW-REINFORCED MARINE FRONT).  AS SUCH,  
GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN  
THE PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS, THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST TO THE GA  
COAST.  
  
A SECOND EPISODE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE  
-- IS POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY INTO EVENING BEHIND THE MCS, ON BOTH  
SIDES OF THE TRAILING BOUNDARY.  THIS MAY INCLUDE DEVELOPMENT  
ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF PRE-COLD-FRONTAL UVV AND ISALLOBARIC  
PERTURBATION NOW ARCHING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS, AND  
ORIGINATING LAST EVENING OVER OK.  THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF FAVORABLE  
DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN -- BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ATOP AN  
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW/ILL-DEFINED WESTERN PART OF THE COLD POOL THAT  
MAY BE PENETRABLE BY STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS FROM SUCCEEDING CONVECTION.  
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, A DEEPLY BUOYANT PROFILE IS LIKELY,  
GIVEN A TROPOPAUSE AROUND 200 MB, AND SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM UPPER  
60S TO NEAR 70 F.  THIS WILL SUPPORT PEAK MLCAPE IN THE 2000-2500  
J/KG RANGE, AMIDST 50-60-KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  
  
THOUGH MID/UPPER WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER/SPEED SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG  
BEHIND THE INITIAL MCS, SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS -- VEERED RELATIVE  
TO BEFORE MCS PASSAGE -- ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.  THIS WOULD  
REDUCE HODOGRAPH SIZE SOMEWHAT, THOUGH STILL WITH SOME CURVATURE DUE  
TO REMAINING SLIGHT VEERING WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH INTENSE SPEED  
SHEAR.  AS SUCH, A MIX OF QUASI-LINEAR/MULTICELLULAR  AND SUPERCELL  
MODES IS POSSIBLE, OFFERING ALL SEVERE THREATS.  
  
A BAND OF STRONG, PERHAPS SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO MAY DEVELOP  
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS MOIST, RELATIVELY  
UNDISTURBED GULF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST  
AND NORTHERN FL REGION.  ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE  
MAIN CONCERN, GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY, NEARLY FRONT-PARALLEL WARM-  
SECTOR FLOW PROGGED BY THAT TIME, LIMITING LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE/SHEAR.  

 

[DanLarsen34]

I know the forum is quiet, but we’ve had a few significant tornadoes already this morning. This was near Blakely not long ago. 

 

[DanLarsen34]

There’s two warnings at the moment, but the southern embedded cell near Damascus, GA looks well organized and could pose a significant tornado and wind threat as it approaches Newton in the next 30-45 minutes. 

[janetjanet998]

got to watch AL into Western GA this afternoon 

winds veer but LLJ also turns more WSW in sync 

 

NAMNest forms a 1002 mb meso low that backs surface winds slightly

looks like it may clear out by 1pm fir some afternoon heating

 

 

[janetjanet998]

TOR probs lowered

 

[Chinook]

There's a chance that there's a TDS at Jennings, FL, but the velocity data is kind of weird, so I don't know

[brianc33710]

Yeah BMX just issued warning for SW Blount & NE Jefferson Cos. That includes me.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
ALC009-073-242200-
/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0067.210424T2135Z-210424T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
435 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Blount County in central Alabama...
  North central Jefferson County in central Alabama...

* Until 500 PM CDT.

* At 435 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Arkadelphia,
  or 10 miles northeast of Sumiton, moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Dallas, Warrior, Kimberly, Locust Fork, Trafford, Hayden, Nectar,
  County Line, Blount Springs, Bangor, Arkadelphia, Smoke Rise,
  Remlap, Rickwood Caverns and Partridge Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3380 8657 3377 8658 3376 8696 3379 8697
      3380 8695 3387 8696 3387 8692 3391 8692
      3392 8689 3394 8688 3393 8686 3395 8684
      3394 8682 3396 8682 3395 8679 3397 8677
      3399 8676 3403 8670 3405 8671 3407 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 264DEG 42KT 3384 8689

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

75 Linhares

---

 

 

[brianc33710]

New Watch

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2021

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 110 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-049-055-071-073-089-095-
111-115-117-121-123-125-250200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0110.210424T2155Z-210425T0200Z/

AL
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIBB                 BLOUNT              CALHOUN
CHAMBERS             CHEROKEE            CHILTON
CLAY                 CLEBURNE            COOSA
DEKALB               ETOWAH              JACKSON
JEFFERSON            MADISON             MARSHALL
RANDOLPH             SHELBY              ST. CLAIR
TALLADEGA            TALLAPOOSA          TUSCALOOSA
$$

[Chinook]

I think this might be a large tornado heading for Douglas, GA. There's 119 kt gate-to-gate shear.

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I think this might be a large tornado heading for Douglas, GA. There's 119 kt gate-to-gate shear.

Just took a look and yeah, looked like a pretty clear TDS for a few scans. Still there but less clear on the latest one.

Edit: added pics