MJO812 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro has less QPF then the other models Still a decent snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Whats more rare May 7th 1989 or Oct. storm 2006, not in terms of snowfall just time of year? I think I ran the numbers before and they were pretty close. I always say that a MASSIVE snow storm coming out of the warm season is far more anomalous than a significant snowstorm coming out of the cold season. Both were awesome but the October surprise is my greatest weather event of my lifetime. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 As far as accumulations go, expect 3-5" across much of Western NY and the lower Genesee Valley, including Buffalo and Rochester. The highest totals are likely to fall along the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and Wyoming County where around 6" is expected. The North Country can also expect 3-5", with local amounts of up to 6" across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill. Snowfall rates in these areas may reach 1" per hour for several hours early Wednesday morning. 2- 4" is expected in Allegany County, along with the potential for a little freezing rain. The lowest accumulations will likely be found across Ontario, Wayne, N.Cayuga, Oswego counties where 2-3" is expected. Forecast snowfall amounts in this area are lower as a result of surface temperatures being slightly warmer, and the fact that most of the snow will fall during daylight hours. The widespread snow will taper off quickly from west to east Wednesday afternoon, to be replaced by a few snow showers as cold air pours into the eastern Great Lakes in the afternoon. Lake effect and upslope snow showers will become more widespread Wednesday night through Thursday morning as the pool of coldest air aloft crosses the region. Northwest flow will direct most of this into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and from Orleans County eastward across Rochester to Oswego County and down into the Finger Lakes off Lake Ontario. Upslope flow will also keep more widespread snow showers going across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. All of this may produce localized additional accumulations of 1-2" Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Pretty much what kbuf was talking about.. Granted these numbers could be a little lower or higher lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Nam still adjusting some..Snow gets in here about 3-4 am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Not super warm for CNY but right around freezing or just above during the"height".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 18z NAM a little SE as well. Looks like we're locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 3k fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 New map Does not include LES.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 For the most part we have been steady between 40°-43° today..Dewpoint steadily dropping, down to 30°.. The temp is around 20° colder than this time yesterday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Nasty drop off over the genny valley, even on the cold biased NAM. kROC riding the edge....yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 While the models are looking better and better for CNY, the NWS offices aren't budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Nasty drop off over the genny value, even on the cold biased NAM. kROC riding the edge....yikes Not sure what’s causing this? The wind flow should be north so I don’t expect downsloping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 On the Canadian too. Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Little improvement Imby, up to 3"-4" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Gfs pretty steady.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Obviously what falls not necessarily sticks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Snowing nicely at the Indy Zoo. Scroll down to the "tiger cam" Webcams - Indianapolis Zoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 18z GGEM develops the heaviest snows to our east.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEM Gem looks spot on with totals while the GFS is out to lunch, lol! No way KSYR gets over 2" from a SWFE during the tail end of April but ya never know I suppose! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 This is probably the map I’d be looking at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This is probably the map I’d be looking at This is 3km on pivotal, that map is snow depth change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 It's sticking in Detroit, we will see much higher rates than over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Greenfield Indiana webcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: This is 3km on pivotal, that map is snow depth change. Wouldn’t you think snow depth charge would be best? With warm ground and diurnal effects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Wouldn’t you think snow depth charge would be best? With warm ground and diurnal effects? I think rates will be high enough to overcome the warm ground quite quickly and the diurnal effects won't really come into play here as most of this hits overnight and early tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Temps around 30 for the highest snowfall rates on GFS. Snow is going to stick if below freezing and 1" per hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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