BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Wednesday. The heaviest snow will fall from the pre-dawn hours through mid to late morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slushy and very slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute. This will be a heavy, wet snow, and may result in isolated power outages and a few downed tree limbs. It appears that there will be a window of at least several hours late tonight and Wednesday morning when the snowfall rates will be heavy enough not have too much of a problem sticking to grassy and untreated surfaces at onset. In fact, some mesoscale guidance suggesting the potential for snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in some areas. A challenging part of the forecast is trying to figure out how much snow is able to accumulate on warmer pavement surfaces which could limit snowfall amounts, but this should only be an issue very early on. Once paved surfaces get a layer of snow, accumulation will certainly be no problem thereafter. Enhancement from the lakes could also come into play as the flow turns more northerly which could send amounts a bit higher. The synoptic snow should quickly clear much of the area by Wednesday afternoon, setting the stage for some lake effect snow showers Wednesday night. Northwest flow will focus most of this into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and from Orleans County eastward across Rochester to Oswego County and down into the Finger Lakes off Lake Ontario. Upslope flow will also keep more widespread snow showers going across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. We will likely see additional localized accumulations in the most persistent bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 12z RGEM through 57hr 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Great call on the separate thread and one I thought we were well done with for the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Anyone know how to update the title to include the date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Anyone know how to update the title to include the date? I actually thought it was automatically done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I’m impressed that it is snowing in the end of April and is covering a large swath of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I’m impressed that it is snowing in the end of April and is covering a large swath of the country This storm doesn't really get going with dynamics until later tonight and overnight. Those rates are much lower than what we will see here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 12z GFS running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Impressive kc got 3 inches with basically a cold frontal passage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 According to GFS the storm starts tonight and hits hardest during overnight hours. It's a little quicker then previous few days model runs 3z-10 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 GFS going to be a big hit, stronger system and even occludes and slows down a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 GFS lays down 7" by 12pm tomorrow for most of WNY at 1:10. Before any LE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Had an overnight/early morning high of 50° but most of the morning it has been in the lower 40S with overcast, hoping to stay cool today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: GFS lays down 7" by 12pm tomorrow for most of WNY at 1:10. Before any LE... WSW...say it with me now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 I also picked up 0.05" of rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: GFS not impressive with the LE, but 850 temps, 700 moisture, and winds are looking quite favorable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Interesting if you put on kutchie map Boston hills benifits with several inches as everyone else looses a inch or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 minute ago, vortmax said: GFS not impressive with the LE, but 850 temps, 700 moisture, and winds are looking quite favorable to me. When is gfs ever impressive with lake snow. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Best track all season lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 I'm thinking they will issue an advisory east of Ontario for like 2"-5" , maybe 3"-6" in the hills.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 To show how rare this is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Many of the members took a step backwards Fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 I don't think we touch May 7th, but I think we have a chance at 2nd place all time for late snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Basically a once in a lifetime event if models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 My calls KBUF - 3.7” KROC - 3.3” KSYR - 2.1” KIAG 5.8” Wolfie 4.5” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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