wdrag Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 SPC continues Marginal risk se NYS-NJ. 00z-06z/20 HRRR/NAM/EC have decent development Wednesday afternoon. TT near 53 flag attention for hail and gust transfer looks like 40-45KT. Follow NWS local offices/SPC/and our own members assessments. Have added the SPC discussion plus the EC (just below SPC)/GFS (below EC) fcst sounding for 18z/21 n central NJ as an idea of what seems to be coming via convection for NJ. CAPE is marginal and KI OK. Activity while still fairly strong crossing LI/CT will ingest cooler southerly inflow from the ocean to limit potential hailers/wind gusts? Even so, the wind shift with significant cold air advection during the evening may induce isolated gusts 40 kt on the island? Have a look. This thread should also serve well for any significant reports of whatever convection occurs Wednesday afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Pretty reasonable parameters will be in place for at least some reports of severe tomorrow but probably nothing too widespread. Temps crash then thereafter too....those of us who are inland might see our last flakes (for sure this time) for at least the next six months with permanent warmth looking like its only a week out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted April 21, 2021 Author Share Posted April 21, 2021 The 06z/21 SPC guidance attached. I won't be commenting on this thread til possibly 6P. Whether this occurs quite as robustly as SPC has discussed is uncertain in my mind but deserves consideration. Follow SPC/OKX/PHI updates and have a good day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 models seem less bullish this morning..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Looks like an early round of showers next few hours. Then we’ll see how much we can destabilize going into the afternoon. The latest HRRR has a line of strong to potentially severe convection this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted April 21, 2021 Author Share Posted April 21, 2021 Thanks for keeping up w this... have had big sprinkles here in Wantage at 815A. Cold influx is soo fast, while it's hailing near NYC at 3P (if it's hailing), it could be snowing in parts of the Poconos including KMPO. HRRR gusts are starting to nudge slightly higher in isolated cells (I think 40KT+, especially NYS-CT). Off to work for me. Have a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Crapvection might ruin our chances. Pouring at work in Massapequa. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, Rjay said: Crapvection might ruin our chances. Pouring at work in Massapequa. 6z NAMS and RGEM seemed to suggest that, however as Walt notes the HRRR is more bullish. = sunny here and already 61 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Wind came up a little while ago, dark clouds are moving in now and the temp is down at least 10° already with little spits of moisture with the bigger gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Heavy rain and thunder here. I’d be surprised if we recover enough for more after this but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Short bursts of heavy rain here with a small rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Just now, jm1220 said: Heavy rain and thunder here. I’d be surprised if we recover enough for more after this but we’ll see. I can hear thunder from that line and see the dark clouds off to my S. It looks to just miss here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 55 minutes ago, Rjay said: Crapvection might ruin our chances. Pouring at work in Massapequa. This always happens in the mornings where we're supposed to get big storms. We get these crappy little rainstorms in the morning and that destroys our chances for big action later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Had some nice thunder with the line that just passed here in Syosset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Good chance that the storms begin to intensify right over top of me in about two hours’ time. Greatest threat is much more confined to my East but I could see a good storm here anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 I think this was always a threat for NYC / NE NJ into the Hudson Valley. Long Island was never really in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Just now, NycStormChaser said: I think this was always a threat for NYC / NE NJ into the Hudson Valley. Long Island was never really in the game. yep with south winds off the still cold ocean/sound, anyone east of the Hudson will have trouble maintaining strength.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Thunder, lightning, heavy rain and hail. All by 11:15 am in Melville, LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Had some short burts of heavy rain with a little thunder but now the sky is looking less threatening to my west. So far .11 inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 I see on radar some convection is starting to fire in eastern PA. The models aren't as impressed with rain amounts as they were the last couple days, but I'm hoping for a nice downpour for the vegetable garden this afternoon. It has really dried out the last week. If not this afternoon then obviously we'll have to wait for the soaking rain saturday night into sunday, but radar in eastern PA is starting to look promising for the possibility of a storm early this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0402.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Sun is back out and it shot right back to 70(+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Sun back out here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0402.html First signs of development happening nearby here in the Catskills. Just rain here with a rumble of thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Steep surface to 500mb lapse rates in place for severe storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj08822 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Not too often you're in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and Freeze Warning area at the same time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 72 now here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj08822 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 About 30 seconds of hail in downtown Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Some random hail falling in Holbrook out of nowhere. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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