Baum Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 if only we had jumbo weenie tags to go with regular weenies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 BTW I am not cheering this foolishness on just amazed that its even possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Thank God it will be coming in mostly after dark. We need all the help we can get this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 55 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: By late April standards this is a legitimate winterstorm threat Finally edged north. Probably still not far enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Maybe the Ukie will never shift north. This is 10:1 because that is all that is available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 hour ago, TimB84 said: That’s definitely exaggeration. Sure, it’s more exciting when Chicago or Detroit or Pittsburgh gets the jackpot than when it’s in BFE places like Lima, OH, but 5+ inches anywhere non-mountainous in late April isn’t a non-event. Hello, BFE resident here. You guys can have it. No skin off my back I promise you. A 3-5" event this late in April is definitely noteworthy, even around here. And if we push 5"+? It'll be remembered for a bit. The SE trend has been amazing this year locally: one double digit big dog, several good 3-6"-ers, and now this. My bigger worry unfortunately is the cold blast that follows. Think we are setting up for a very significant freeze especially Wednesday night as skies clear and the northwesterlies die down some. Next 36 hours are going to be spent trying to protect as much plant life as possible since many things are very far along for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 32 minutes ago, Snownado said: Thank God it will be coming in mostly after dark. We need all the help we can get this time of year. lol I don’t think the help we need is in the cold and miserable category, Mother Nature has proved the last several years now she can extend winter into early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 On 4/17/2021 at 2:43 PM, wxman_ind said: The daily snowfall record at Indy for Apr 20 is a Trace. April 21 is 0.7". https://twitter.com/NWSIndianapolis/status/1383459641774919686?s=20 Bye bye old record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Maybe the Ukie will never shift north. This is 10:1 because that is all that is available Most other guidance is nearly that far south now (tossing the NAM and Euro).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 hour ago, TimB84 said: That’s definitely exaggeration. Sure, it’s more exciting when Chicago or Detroit or Pittsburgh gets the jackpot than when it’s in BFE places like Lima, OH, but 5+ inches anywhere non-mountainous in late April isn’t a non-event. I think we see maybe a couple spotty 5” reports, but this screams a 2-3” of slop in the “jackpot”kind of deal. But with that being said, mid-late April storms have shocked me before... see my earlier photo of the 4/14/19 8 incher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 The lingering model differences are not helpful and make for a somewhat tricky call, but in either case, it's a downgrade from my earlier expectations. Scenario 1: Precip onset time occurs around 7-8 am and quickly picks up in intensity with snow falling at a decent clip, which is able to lay down a base on colder surfaces prior to the increasing sun angle throughout the day. This scenario potentially results in a couple inches or so. Scenario 2: Precip onset time occurs slightly later in the morning and stays light the whole time, struggling to accumulate. This would result in a light coating at most on colder surfaces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 15 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I think we see maybe a couple spotty 5” reports, but this screams a 2-3” of slop in the “jackpot”kind of deal. But with that being said, mid-late April storms have shocked me before... see my earlier photo of the 4/14/19 8 incher. I don’t know the climatology for NW Ohio particularly well, but I would venture to guess that even 2-3” of slop in those areas in the 20s of April is incredibly rare. The 4/14/19 storm is indeed impressive, but every week you add in spring makes multi-inch snowfalls anywhere in this region exponentially more impressive. The difference between getting accumulating snow on 4/14 vs. 4/21 is simply not the same as the difference between getting accumulating snow on 2/14 vs. 2/21 or even 3/14 vs. 3/21. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Most other guidance is nearly that far south now (tossing the NAM and Euro). . Do still have the HRRR and RAP with northern solutions, though they have been shifting south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I don’t know the climatology for NW Ohio particularly well, but I would venture to guess that even 2-3” of slop in those areas in the 20s of April is incredibly rare. The 4/14/19 storm is indeed impressive, but every week you add in spring makes multi-inch snowfalls anywhere in this region exponentially more impressive. The difference between getting accumulating snow on 4/14 vs. 4/21 is simply not the same as the difference between getting accumulating snow on 2/14 vs. 2/21 or even 3/14 vs. 3/21. Using Toledo as an example, they have had only 3 calendar day snows of 1" or greater on or after 4/20: 4/21/1922 5/9/1923 4/24/2005 Indianapolis has not had any measurable snow at all this late in the season since 1989. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Using Toledo as an example, they have had only 3 calendar day snows of 1" or greater on or after 4/20: 4/21/1922 5/9/1923 4/24/2005 Indianapolis has not had any measurable snow at all this late in the season since 1989. I didn’t experience the 4/24/05 storm firsthand because I didn’t live in the affected area, but it might be the winner in my opinion when it comes to storms that occurred this late or later (besides MAYBE the May 27-29, 1947 WI/MN/IA snowstorm, but I can’t imagine there’s anyone on this forum that can attest firsthand to what happened during that storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Maybe the Ukie will never shift north. This is 10:1 because that is all that is available Or fill in around south central illinois. Reminds me of the classic DC snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Euro ticked SE on 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Can anyone spare a pick of the Euro?? It is off season and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Euro ticked SE on 12z run. Something I noticed on there over the last several runs is warming of the 925 mb temps. Even after accounting for the southeast shifts, the 925 mb temps on the nw flank are warmer than before. I think it's still cold enough to keep snow as the main ptype, but it puts even more importance on getting good rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: Something I noticed on there over the last several runs is warming of the 925 mb temps. Even after accounting for the southeast shifts, the 925 mb temps on the nw flank are warmer than before. I think it's still cold enough to keep snow as the main ptype, but it puts even more importance on getting good rates. 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: Firms up the prevailing wisdom of a non-event outside of the BFE area of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Something I noticed on there over the last several runs is warming of the 925 mb temps. Even after accounting for the southeast shifts, the 925 mb temps on the nw flank are warmer than before. I think it's still cold enough to keep snow as the main ptype, but it puts even more importance on getting good rates. This trend translates into the sfc temps as well. Here's a loop of the last several runs valid 18z Tuesday. The southeastward shifts are evident but notice the warming trend on the nw side as well. This results in a more mixy outcome on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 We definitely got NAMmed by this event, and also the ECMWF being more bullish for several runs didn't help. I was never too excited about the heart of the metro and points west and northwest. But I was overly optimistic for the southeast 1/3 or so of the CWA while the NAM still had global guidance support from the Euro. I suppose some surprises are possible if rates end up heavier along the lines of some of the meso models. Failing that though, Wednesday now appears to have a higher chance of interesting weather. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 48 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: We definitely got NAMmed by this event, and also the ECMWF being more bullish for several runs didn't help. I was never too excited about the heart of the metro and points west and northwest. But I was overly optimistic for the southeast 1/3 or so of the CWA while the NAM still had global guidance support from the Euro. I suppose some surprises are possible if rates end up heavier along the lines of some of the meso models. Failing that though, Wednesday now appears to have a higher chance of interesting weather. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk May still be getting NAMmed as the 18z run is sticking with a decent hit I-80 southward in LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 This low-level convergence axis in IL and WI (or whatever it is... haven't really looked at it) is kinda curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Both NAMs big shift north on 18z runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 HRRR showing pockets of 100+ 0-3km CAPE both tomorrow and Wednesday. I'd love to score some thundersnow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Latest Euro valid at 1PM Wednesday for Aurora: 0-3km lapse rates are 9.6C/km and the equilibrium level is more than cold enough for lightning (threshold is ~-30C). The freezing level is near 2000', but any heavy precip would be just enough to bring snow in the core of any potential convective cells. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 22 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Latest Euro valid at 1PM Wednesday for Aurora: 0-3km lapse rates are 9.6C/km and the equilibrium level is more than cold enough for lightning (threshold is ~-30C). The freezing level is near 2000', but any heavy precip would be just enough to bring snow in the core of any potential convective cells. Looks impressive. Could also result in hyper localized temp differences/fluctuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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