sbnwx85 Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 This must be what it’s like following snowstorms in the south. Excited for 60 on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 11 hours ago, Snownado said: This doesn't show Muncie with 1.8". The 1.8" is in Richmond. Close enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 12z Euro is sort of a compromise between the northernmost and southernmost models. We seem to have a battle of the global vs higher res/mesoscale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 Will there be advisories or watches issued today or will they wait until tomorrow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snownado said: Will there be advisories or watches issued today or will they wait until tomorrow ? Good question. I doubt we'll see anything today. Too much uncertainty with magnitude of road impacts a bit unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: Good question. I doubt we'll see anything today. Too much uncertainty with magnitude of road impacts a bit unclear. Everything is shifting SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 Seasonal Trends............ Remember the mid February storm. Trended SE but corrected more amped at go time. Can't ignore this. NAM hints at it .....GFS fails SE as it usually does..........and the Euro will sit back and clean up. This will be a Redux of that storm, in spirit at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 2 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: GFS continues to be SE. LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 trending toward a non event. Let order be restored. Basically, a miserable two days in mid-late April. Not unusual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Baum said: trending toward a non event. Let order be restored. Basically, a miserable two days in mid-late April. Not unusual. Highs in the 30s are not unusual for Mid to Late April ? I"m pretty sure your average is way warmer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, Snownado said: Highs in the 30s are not unusual for Mid to Late April ? I"m pretty sure your average is way warmer than that. Unusual vs. historic. Return intervals. Essentially what I’m saying is a lot of people want to see a once in a generation/lifetime/recorded history event, as opposed to something that is unusual compared to climate normals but occurs fairly regularly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 55 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Seasonal Trends............ Remember the mid February storm. Trended SE but corrected more amped at go time. Can't ignore this. NAM hints at it .....GFS fails SE as it usually does..........and the Euro will sit back and clean up. This will be a Redux of that storm, in spirit at least. Generally not a fan of the seasonal trend line of argument, but I do think it is a mistake to not weight the NAM into the forecast. How much, well, that's what people get paid for lol. The early part of this event in particular is very mesoscale driven, which is usually NAM wheelhouse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 29 minutes ago, Snownado said: Highs in the 30s are not unusual for Mid to Late April ? I"m pretty sure your average is way warmer than that. we've had a heavy april snowfall,even a May event, each of the last three seasons. As a somewhat approximate comparison prior to each of the last 3 years had an event not really seen since I believe(guesstimate here) April 14,1961 and April of 1972. Thus, the rare has become the norm. So a one day high of 38 in April is not all that atypical. Would also say if precip ends up lighter than advertised temps will probably be in the 40's easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Baum said: we've had a heavy april snowfall,even a May event, each of the last three seasons. As a somewhat approximate comparison prior to each of the last 3 years had an event not really seen since I believe(guesstimate here) April 14,1961 and April of 1972. Thus, the rare has become the norm. So a one day high of 38 in April is not all that atypical. Would also say if precip ends up lighter than advertised temps will probably be in the 40's easy. Would point out though that the April snows of the past few years targeted central/northern LOT. This one looks to be focused farther south, and it's been a long time since areas south of I-80 in LOT had significant snow so late in April (especially if it ends up being a 3-6" thing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Would point out though that the April snows of the past few years targeted central/northern LOT. This one looks to be focused farther south, and it's been a long time since areas south of I-80 in LOT had significant snow so late in April (especially if it ends up being a 3-6" thing). it's all yours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 How many more cycles/runs until the NAM caves? 18z looks sexy for N IN up through detroit. I hope it's right but I have my doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 18Z GFS is same track as 12Z, guess we'll see what 0Z does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 27 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 18Z GFS is same track as 12Z, guess we'll see what 0Z does Pretty wide spread between the GFS/NAM this close in. I'd be stunned if the northern edge of the snow ends up as far south as the GFS. Not that I think the NAM is going to nail that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 ORD has broken a daily snowfall record in April 3 years in a row: 2.0" on 4/9/2018 5.4" on 4/14/2019 and 2.5" on 4/27/2019 1.7" on 4/15/2020 and 3.0" on 4/17/2020 The daily record for 4/20 is 0.2" in 1943. That should be a lay up to break even though you never know what you're going to get in terms of measuring at ORD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 ORD has broken a daily snowfall record in April 3 years in a row: 2.0" on 4/9/2018 5.4" on 4/14/2019 and 2.5" on 4/27/2019 1.7" on 4/15/2020 and 3.0" on 4/17/2020 The daily record for 4/20 is 0.2" in 1943. That should be a lay up to break even though you never know what you're going to get in terms of measuring at ORD.If a majority of guidance is right, 0.2” is even a stretch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: If a majority of guidance is right, 0.2” is even a stretch. . Yeah, well, we'll see. Obviously I've made no secret that I am skeptical of it ending up so far south. My guess would be that most of Cook county ends up with over 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Thinking a DAB in mby followed by a hard freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 I'm skeptical of how much falls during the day Tuesday if rates aren't heavy. And a majority of the guidance has the heavier snow toward and after sunset Tuesday evening mostly east of the CWA. I was thinking back to Feb 24 2016 when the northwest fringe just outside the heavy snow band that nailed the south burbs into northwest Indiana was essentially white rain despite coming down at a good clip at times. And that was in late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Hoosier can have mine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 KIND says snow will have trouble accumulating due to warm ground temps, but won't the bulk of the precip be after dark ? I think timing is on Indy's side since the bulk of the precip won't be during the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 The question for the way upper Ohio Valley (NWS PBZ’s domain) would be, can the GFS be dismissed as total garbage? NWS PBZ seems to say yes based on their point and click. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Detroit and Toledo continue to be in line for what appears to be a 2” or greater snowfall for Tuesday into Wednesday (April 20-21). Toledo has had four prior snowfalls of 1” or more on or after April 20: April 21, 1922: 2.0” May 8-9, 1923: 4.0” May 6-7, 1989: 1.3” April 23-24, 2005: 4.0” The most recent measurable snowfall on or after April 20 occurred on April 20, 2013 when 0.3” snow was measured. Daily snowfall records are: April 20: Detroit: 1.2”, 1947; Toledo: 0.3”, 2013 April 21: Detroit: 0.3”, 1978; Toledo: 2.0”, 1922 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 47 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I'm skeptical of how much falls during the day Tuesday if rates aren't heavy. And a majority of the guidance has the heavier snow toward and after sunset Tuesday evening mostly east of the CWA. I was thinking back to Feb 24 2016 when the northwest fringe just outside the heavy snow band that nailed the south burbs into northwest Indiana was essentially white rain despite coming down at a good clip at times. And that was in late February. It would help if we could get consensus between the NAM/hires models and the globals. Even in the NAM/hires scenario though, it doesn't appear peak rates would be quite as heavy in the LOT cwa as the infamous 4/14/19 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Regarding that 4/14/19 snow... once rates got heavy enough, I do remember it sticking on the pavement during the middle of the day even with temps of 33-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Regarding that 4/14/19 snow... once rates got heavy enough, I do remember it sticking on the pavement during the middle of the day even with temps of 33-34. I ended up with 8” from that storm. It was unreal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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