StormfanaticInd Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, Baum said: block won't be denied. Got to respect the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 IWX seems to be may more bullish than KIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 IWX tried to find some humor in it all. Even managed to work in a reference to the Edmund Fitzgerald song. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snownado said: IWX seems to be may more bullish than KIND. They should be at this point since most models are really targeting the IWX cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 Still a little early to say for sure, but based on how the 18z NAM is coming in so far, I don't think there will be a major southeast shift on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 I am thinking of going on a snow chase. What area of Indiana would be the best place for me to go ? I'm thinking about either Logansport or Warsaw ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Snownado said: I am thinking of going on a snow chase. What area of Indiana would be the best place for me to go ? I'm thinking about either Logansport or Warsaw ? wait until it gets closer to see the track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Snownado said: I am thinking of going on a snow chase. What area of Indiana would be the best place for me to go ? I'm thinking about either Logansport or Warsaw ? Wyandotte, MI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 31 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Still a little early to say for sure, but based on how the 18z NAM is coming in so far, I don't think there will be a major southeast shift on this run. Check out the differences in the mid-level warm sector: GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 NAM went big in MI. Still snowing at the end of the run from around Chicago eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 I could be remembering things wrong, but I seem to recall the track for that storm this past November being similar to what the models are showing for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: I could be remembering things wrong, but I seem to recall the track for that storm this past November being similar to what the models are showing for this system. Are you referring to Nov 11, 2019? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Are you referring to Nov 11, 2019? It's funny how 2020 seems to be forgotten. I find myself remembering something from 2 years ago, thinking it was last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 At the end of the NAM you can see what appears to me to be some lake enhanced/effect snow around Chicago and northwest IN (maybe going on before then but harder to pick out?). One would expect some of that in this setup with delta T getting into at least the mid teens and sufficient inversion heights. The issue is that it's countered by the warmer temps near the shore courtesy of the onshore flow. So while it may not actually result in higher snow amounts, it's possible that it could help smooth things out a bit so that total snow amounts don't drop as much closer to shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Are you referring to Nov 11, 2019? Yes, that's the one I'm thinking of. But I still could be remembering the track wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 The ECMWF ensemble suite shifted a bit southeast vs 12z, but still a good hit of QPF across much of the Chicago metro. Agree on treating the UKMET as the outlier that it is for now. The Euro, GEM, and NAM all have initial f-gen driven banding starting Monday night over northern IL, that would probably be a narrower area of appreciable accums. Big question mark is when and where does the synoptic system really take off as mid-level wave goes neutral to near negative tilt, and allow a strong deformation axis to develop. The 12z operational ECMWF more or less is the middle ground between the farthest northwest NAM and farther southeast 12z GFS and GEM. At this point, seems more likely than not 1-3" amounts from the initial banding into the metro, with Tuesday PM the wild card. If the intense defo banding sets up just southeast, subsidence northwest of it would probably quickly shut off meaningful snow. Weighing probabilities at this still pretty early juncture, within LOT CWA, southeast of I-55 and particularly northwest Indiana probably have the best chance of a higher impact headline worthy event. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 Here comes the baby steppin northwest GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 That 18Z GFS run is spicy for Northern Indiana and Lower Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 18z Euro bumped back NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 I love it’s continuing to shift NW, let it stay out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro bumped back NW. . uh-oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 I'm about as bullish as I can be on a 3-6" type hit in the middle of April. I think the max band will be heavier than that but it would likely require quicker deepening to bring it in here. This should easily be the most interesting wx event around here in the past several weeks, and the overall rarity of doing this with the trees leafing out as they are adds an element of intrigue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 00z HRRR is slower with the cold front than 18z. This would probably lead to our system tracking farther north. How much stock you want to put in the extended range of the HRRR is up to you though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 00z HRRR is slower with the cold front than 18z. This would probably lead to our system tracking farther north. How much stock you want to put in the extended range of the HRRR is up to you though.NAM fits my general idea for this system so I'll ride it lol. 850 mb front much quicker this run than 18z, so baroclinic zone sets up farther southeast and the top down and bottom up intensification of the synoptic system takes place just too late for most of the IL metro, on Tuesday evening. Looks like non efficient accums, mostly on colder surfaces, during the day on Tuesday over northern IL. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: NAM fits my general idea for this system so I'll ride it lol. 850 mb front much quicker this run than 18z, so baroclinic zone sets up farther southeast and the top down and bottom up intensification of the synoptic system takes place just too late for most of the IL metro, on Tuesday evening. Looks like non efficient accums, mostly on colder surfaces, during the day on Tuesday over northern IL. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk One thing I like for mby is that good rates look to linger into early evening. So even if accumulations struggle more than anticipated in early-mid afternoon, there should be a few hour window (I'll say around 6 pm and later is when we'll see the diminishing effects of the sun angle) where it accumulates more efficiently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 NAM has me amped. Let’s set some records. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 Our South Bend guy should enjoy the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 Just now, sbnwx85 said: NAM has me amped. Let’s set some records. Ha, just beat my post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: Ha, just beat my post. Was just typing a post too, it absolutely crushes around here. Could potentially be the biggest storm of the season in spots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 One thing I like for mby is that good rates look to linger into early evening. So even if accumulations struggle more than anticipated in early-mid afternoon, there should be a few hour window (I'll say around 6 pm and later is when we'll see the diminishing effects of the sun angle) where it accumulates more efficiently.Completely agree, I think that it's gonna rip in that rapidly intensifying defo zone Tuesday evening, 1"+/hour type stuff. I currently like south burbs and south in LOT CWA into NW/N IN and lower MI for this event. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now