April 20-21 late season snow potential

[fluoronium]

lol. Might as well go for a 4th year in a row of mid April snow storms.

I wonder if I'll ever see fruit from my orchard.

[A-L-E-K]

going 3 final call, go big or go home

[Hoosier]

If ORD can pick up 1.9" or more, it would be the 4th April in a row that outsnows March.  This had never even happened 3 years in a row until now.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

For us 'normal' weather weenies who look to April for the beginning of warmth and severe season, it's never good to see Josh start posting.

Hey now! I post year round. Just less frequently the boring half of the year

[michsnowfreak]

36 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

And therein lies one of the problems with these late season snowfalls. For non-weather enthusiasts, “but it snowed on April 20th” always trumps “March and April were both 5 or 6 degrees above normal” when it comes to discussing how a period fits into longer term climatology.

That is no worse than when a warm spell is attributed to global warming. The weather is the weather and the general public will never "get it".

[Snownado]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

O rly?

It's definitely been a chilly April for much of the Eastern US, particularly from TX to FL.

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Two runs in a row euro is dropping 6+ in the thumb points SW. Today's 12z run deepens the low down to 997, which has 6-10 just NW of detroit. Interesting evolution and track for this one. It seems to move slowly until rounding the bend and intensifying/shooting north quickly simultaneously. If it does indeed deepen as much as the euro portrays, id expect it to keep its slow movement, which will drop more snow. While I'd much rather have 60's right now, if its gonna be cold, I'm down for some snow as I lived in Florida this winter and need my winter storm fix. Last winter I was out of town for the only 6+ event so it's been a few years. Looks like it will warm back into the 60's a few days after this potential snow.

I forgot you missed all of the snow this year. There were 2 6+ events last year, November 11th & January 18th, though obviously November 11th was far more impressive for the date. Is that the one you missed?

 

Only 1 6+ event this year, tho it was generally a good 9-11", and the mid snowpack in February was much more impressive than anything seen last winter. Also the Feb 4 thunp was the best non-les rates you'll ever see here.. All the said,, I HIGHLY doubt we can pull off a 6+ event in late April but accumulating snow is certainly looking more likely.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Snownado said:

It's definitely been a chilly April for much of the Eastern US, particularly from TX to FL.

Like 75% of the eastern US is at or above average so far.  When he posted that, it gave the impression that the majority of the east was filled with greens and blues (below average).

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Snownado said:

It's definitely been a chilly April for much of the Eastern US, particularly from TX to FL.

I don’t think when someone is talking about the “Eastern US”, anyone could possibly believe they’re talking about Texas...

[Snownado]

Just now, TimB84 said:

I don’t think when someone is talking about the “Eastern US”, anyone could possibly believe they’re talking about Texas...

I consider East TX to be in the Eastern half of the US.

[Powerball]

9 minutes ago, Snownado said:

It's definitely been a chilly April for much of the Eastern US, particularly from TX to FL.

If you consider the areas with positive temperature departures on that map "chilly," I'm afraid to know what you would consider "warm."

[Snownado]

My God look at North FL. Talk about chilly. -2 to -4 close to Tallahassee.

[TimB]

24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

That is no worse than when a warm spell is attributed to global warming. The weather is the weather and the general public will never "get it".

Depends on what you define as a warm spell. I know what you mean, that people will attribute a week or two that is well above average to global warming, which is definitely asinine. But if the warm spell we’re talking about is many locations having 10 or 11 months per year with above normal temperatures, year after year after year, then it gets a little murkier.

Edit: this is way off topic and we’re not going down this road in yet another thread. Agree to disagree.

[Stevo6899]

22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I forgot you missed all of the snow this year. There were 2 6+ events last year, November 11th & January 18th, though obviously November 11th was far more impressive for the date. Is that the one you missed?

 

Only 1 6+ event this year, tho it was generally a good 9-11", and the mid snowpack in February was much more impressive than anything seen last winter. Also the Feb 4 thunp was the best non-les rates you'll ever see here.. All the said,, I HIGHLY doubt we can pull off a 6+ event in late April but accumulating snow is certainly looking more likely.

I was in california for the november one. I am still angry I missed that one. I had a feeling that one would overachieve. I remember most models and mets were forecasting 2-4 and 6-12 fell. I remember telling my family be ready for 6-10 and they blew me off. Then my dad wanted to use my snow blower because he didn't get theirs ready in time and have gas lol. If I cant recall the January 18th storm, it probably wasn't 6+ in my neck of the woods.

[Hoosier]

Hate to say it but there is some lazy forecasting from some offices this afternoon.  With CAA and precip, it is not going to snow in the morning and then change back to rain during the afternoon on Tuesday.  Following MOS output will burn you.

At least there is still about 4 days to go and it's not being said the day before, I guess.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

I was in california for the november one. I am still angry I missed that one. I had a feeling that one would overachieve. I remember most models and mets were forecasting 2-4 and 6-12 fell. I remember telling my family be ready for 6-10 and they blew me off. Then my dad wanted to use my snow blower because he didn't get theirs ready in time and have gas lol. If I cant recall the January 18th storm, it probably wasn't 6+ in my neck of the woods.

The November one was truly probably once in a lifetime type of storm. Not just because 8-12" fell, but because it was powder and followed by record smashing cold never before seen so early in the season. And then wouldn't you know it ended up a mild Winter.  You probably got between 6 and 7" on January 18th but it was an overnight thump so you probably slept through it, then it turned to rain as the storm tracked while West, we lost a few inches of depth, then it froze up. https://www.weather.gov/dtx/200118winterstorm

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hate to say it but there is some lazy forecasting from some offices this afternoon.  With CAA and precip, it is not going to snow in the morning and then change back to rain during the afternoon on Tuesday.  Following MOS output will burn you.

At least there is still about 4 days to go and it's not being said the day before, I guess.

It is beyond annoying, but we see this every single year, sometimes with early season events but always with late season events. It does not matter what kind of model agreement there is, the nws greatly ignores unusual snow potential until/unless the event is literally occurring.  I completely understand skepticism for accumulating snow so late in the season, but to always do the magic "rain during the day, rain possibly mixed with snow at night" thing is just pointless. Especially since a front is moving through.

[michsnowfreak]

I cancelled my weatherbell subscription until the fall, it ended on April 14th lol. Did not think I would need to see anymore euro snow maps, but anyone that has them, please feel free to post in the coming days.

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It is beyond annoying, but we see this every single year, sometimes with early season events but always with late season events. It does not matter what kind of model agreement there is, the nws greatly ignores unusual snow potential until/unless the event is literally occurring.  I completely understand skepticism for accumulating snow so late in the season, but to always do the magic "rain during the day, rain possibly mixed with snow at night" thing is just pointless. Especially since a front is moving through.

LOT and IWX at least have solid discussions. DTX’s looks very vague.

[RCNYILWX]

Hate to say it but there is some lazy forecasting from some offices this afternoon.  With CAA and precip, it is not going to snow in the morning and then change back to rain during the afternoon on Tuesday.  Following MOS output will burn you.

At least there is still about 4 days to go and it's not being said the day before, I guess.

The problem is that we initialize with NBM data 36 hours out and onward and the NBM has a bunch of models, ensembles, and MOS in it, so it'll always be too warm in this sort of scenario.

 

I'm here on the evening shift and was briefed that the MaxT needs to be much lower but surrounding offices didn't want to make a big change, so there's that unrealistic diurnal precip type trend. Hopefully the overnight shifts populate with raw model data for the Tuesday MaxT if the 00z guidance holds serve.

 

 

 

 

 

[Stevo6899]

28 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I cancelled my weatherbell subscription until the fall, it ended on April 14th lol. Did not think I would need to see anymore euro snow maps, but anyone that has them, please feel free to post in the coming days.

If all your interested in is snow maps, pivotal weather has free 10:1 euro snow maps for the HI-RES euro runs. I'm assuming you already knew that. The euro kuchera maps (all model kuchera maps) were way off this winter, at least locally here. I'm not sure why you would pay for those, unless other features came with the paid subscription that you use and enjoy. They kept spitting out 15+ amounts for the february storm and I think only a few isolated areas in the state saw double digits with that storm.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

LOT and IWX at least have solid discussions. DTX’s looks very vague.

They always are. I do think that staffing is different during the pandemic, but still. They take a conservative approach 75%+ of the time. I can recall numerous winter weather advisories that were upgraded to warnings.

[Hoosier]

The before and after on this might be interesting.  I have never seen it snow when it is so flowered out.  Not sure if it will be able to withstand or if it will get wrecked.

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

If all your interested in is snow maps, pivotal weather has free 10:1 euro snow maps for the HI-RES euro runs. I'm assuming you already knew that. The euro kuchera maps (all model kuchera maps) were way off this winter, at least locally here. I'm not sure why you would pay for those, unless other features came with the paid subscription that you use and enjoy. They kept spitting out 15+ amounts for the february storm and I think only a few isolated areas in the state saw double digits with that storm.

Weatherbell has tons of neat features both short and long range, including weeklies, monthlies, etc. Snow maps are only one of them, I didn't realize pivotal had euro snow maps. If I was more into severe weather I'd totally keep a year round subscription. 

 

Kuchera maps are almost always too high, but then 10-1 is often too low in winter. The Feb 15-16 storm was 2 wave, generally 1-2" with wave 1 and 6-10" with wave 2. So while many areas eeked into double digits for the 2 day totals (10.4" dtw, 11.0" here, 12.0" monroe) it was debatable if it should be referred to as 1 or 2 events. It was 2+9 here fwiw.

[Stebo]

36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The before and after on this might be interesting.  I have never seen it snow when it is so flowered out.  Not sure if it will be able to withstand or if it will get wrecked.

 

So much is flowering right now that this could be a very bad hit.

[Frog Town]

If we truly are 15-20 days ahead like many have said, then this could be bad.  Imagine getting a 5" snow fall in the middle of May.  

[frostfern]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It is beyond annoying, but we see this every single year, sometimes with early season events but always with late season events. It does not matter what kind of model agreement there is, the nws greatly ignores unusual snow potential until/unless the event is literally occurring.  I completely understand skepticism for accumulating snow so late in the season, but to always do the magic "rain during the day, rain possibly mixed with snow at night" thing is just pointless. Especially since a front is moving through.

It seems like they always trend the gridded forecast towards climatology.  To be honest the Accuweather thing where the forecast is “heavy snow” 8 days out is worse.  Would prefer a middle ground.  Good thing I read the weather discussions as they will almost always mention a lower-confidence significant event before they’ve committed it to the grids.

[michsnowfreak]

59 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The before and after on this might be interesting.  I have never seen it snow when it is so flowered out.  Not sure if it will be able to withstand or if it will get wrecked.

 

As we all know I'm not a spring lover, but I do love the white flowering pear trees (even though they smell like semen lmao), weeping cherry blossoms, and red buds.

[RCNYILWX]

April 2019 showed well that very heavy rates overcome the August equivalent sun angle, so that's what we'll need to see continued support for to get noteworthy accumulations.
Looking back to those events, April 14th got going early before the peak sun angles to put down a good base of snow and keep the ground colder for continued accums under heavy rates.

April 27th didn't fully change over to snow until the afternoon and the rates were not as uniformly heavy, so overall road accums and impacts were less widespread than on April 14th.

For Tuesday it looks like the snow will have started by the morning, so that could point toward a more 4/14/19 like outcome *if* the heavy snow materializes.

I'm out of winter mode, so the only way this would be more tolerable is if ORD gets the amount needed to get to 50+" on the season.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

April 2019 showed well that very heavy rates overcome the August equivalent sun angle, so that's what we'll need to see continued support for to get noteworthy accumulations.
Looking back to those events, April 14th got going early before the peak sun angles to put down a good base of snow and keep the ground colder for continued accums under heavy rates.

April 27th didn't fully change over to snow until the afternoon and the rates were not as uniformly heavy, so overall road accums and impacts were less widespread than on April 14th.

For Tuesday it looks like the snow will have started by the morning, so that could point toward a more 4/14/19 like outcome *if* the heavy snow materializes.

I'm out of winter mode, so the only way this would be more tolerable is if ORD gets the amount needed to get to 50+" on the season.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Do you have an early guess on what ratios may be like in the area?  It looks like the dgz is not particularly shallow and there is decent lift.  Obviously the marginal surface temps don't help but given what I mentioned above, I was thinking it may help to counteract the surface conditions to some extent so that maybe we end up with like 8:1 (maybe temporarily higher?) instead of something extremely waterlogged like 5:1?