April 20-21 late season snow potential

[Hoosier]

Maybe not normally thread worthy, but the bar is lower considering the late season nature.

Actually appears like this could occur across a rather large chunk of the sub, even if not particularly heavy in one area.    

[Stebo]

Pass

[NTXYankee]

Pass as well.  4/20 should be a severe weather thread not snow potential.

[CheeselandSkies]

14 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

Pass as well.  4/20 should be a severe weather thread not snow potential.

100%

[michsnowfreak]

Bring it on. 

For Detroit, the records for the days in question:

April 20: Record snow: 1.2" (1947) - Record low: 20° (1897) - Record low max: 36° (1953)

April 21: Record snow: 0.3" (1978) - Record low: 21° (1875) - Record low max: 39° (1875)

April 22: Record snow: 1.0" (1911) - Record low: 20° (1875) - Record low max: 38° (2020)

 

24 of 140 years on record have seen measurable snow on or after April 20, however only 11 times on record have seen a snowfall of 0.5"+ on or after April 20th.

May 10, 2020: 0.5"

Apr 23/24, 2005: 4.3"

Apr 23/24, 1967: 1.7"

Apr 20, 1947: 1.2"

Apr 20, 1943: 0.5"

May 9, 1923: 6.0"

May 13, 1912: 1.5"

Apr 22, 1911: 1.0"

Apr 29, 1909: 3.0"

May 10, 1902: 0.5"

May 21/22, 1883: 5.0"

[Chicago Storm]

ENS support is about as good as you’ll get for mid-late April...





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[IWXwx]

Figures it's gonna happen on 4/20. Will freak the stoners out.

[CheeselandSkies]

Snow patches remaining on the ground in southern Wisconsin on 4/20/18. It stayed so cold so long that year the greenup hadn't even started:

4/27/19 (coincidentally happened to catch the same locomotive)...greenup underway due to nice weather earlier in the month but then this:

Pretty sure it snowed in April last year, too, but it probably just p***ed me off too much to photograph and I wasn't going out anyway due to the COVID lockdown. Way too much of this **** lately.

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Snow patches remaining on the ground in southern Wisconsin on 4/20/18. It stayed so cold so long that year the greenup hadn't even started:

4/27/19 (coincidentally happened to catch the same locomotive)...greenup underway due to nice weather earlier in the month but then this:

Pretty sure it snowed in April last year, too, but it probably just p***ed me off too much to photograph and I wasn't going out anyway due to the COVID lockdown. Way too much of this **** lately.

Last year southern WI just missed a few snows to their south and east in later April.

 

These are pics I took last April/May. 

[madwx]

13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Snow patches remaining on the ground in southern Wisconsin on 4/20/18. It stayed so cold so long that year the greenup hadn't even started:

4/27/19 (coincidentally happened to catch the same locomotive)...greenup underway due to nice weather earlier in the month but then this:

Pretty sure it snowed in April last year, too, but it probably just p***ed me off too much to photograph and I wasn't going out anyway due to the COVID lockdown. Way too much of this **** lately.

we average 2.6" of snow in April.   It's abnormal if we don't get any snow this month.   Only 8 out of the past 30 years haven't had measurable snow in April and all of those years had a trace.

[TimB]

14 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Snow patches remaining on the ground in southern Wisconsin on 4/20/18. It stayed so cold so long that year the greenup hadn't even started:

4/27/19 (coincidentally happened to catch the same locomotive)...greenup underway due to nice weather earlier in the month but then this:

Pretty sure it snowed in April last year, too, but it probably just p***ed me off too much to photograph and I wasn't going out anyway due to the COVID lockdown. Way too much of this **** lately.

I seem to remember just about every Memorial Day when I lived in Wisconsin, some news outlet or the NWS always documented the May 27-29, 1947 snowstorm that affected Wisconsin. Also, 4/12/07 and even 5/11/06 come to mind from when I lived up there (but I think the latter was just a dusting).

[michsnowfreak]

16 minutes ago, madwx said:

we average 2.6" of snow in April.   It's abnormal if we don't get any snow this month.   Only 8 out of the past 30 years haven't had measurable snow in April and all of those years had a trace.

I didn't realize Madison hasn't seen any snow in April. Records began in 1884, and only 6 times did April see 0.0 snow. Ironically 4 of the 6 saw a T in May. So the only 2 times that 0.0 snow was seen after March was 1901 and 1981. The earliest last flakes for MSN were Mar 10, 1901.

 

Chicago has also seen 0.0 snow in April, they have had 10 April's on record with 0.0 snow, and also several of them saw a T in May. The earliest last flakes for Chicago are Mar 9, 1946.

 

Here in Detroit, we saw 0.1" on Apr 1 and a T on Apr 15, but fwiw our earliest last flakes are Mar 11, 1946.

[CheeselandSkies]

25 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I seem to remember just about every Memorial Day when I lived in Wisconsin, some news outlet or the NWS always documented the May 27-29, 1947 snowstorm that affected Wisconsin. Also, 4/12/07 and even 5/11/06 come to mind from when I lived up there (but I think the latter was just a dusting).

I seem to remember the May 2006 snow but I was in Green Bay for school then so it didn't seem as objectionable.

[CheeselandSkies]

31 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Last year southern WI just missed a few snows to their south and east in later April.

 

These are pics I took last April/May. 

Dig that right photo.

[michsnowfreak]

52 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Dig that right photo.

Thanks! it was sweet. A heavy band set up, DTW went down to like 1/16 mile or something like that. Very surreal being out in it on April 17. Full pic below.

[WaryWarren]

Let's do this. 

 

[Hoosier]

I don't expect it to be a significant player but there is actually a signal for some lake response off of Lake Michigan as delta T gets into the negative teens.  

[Hoosier]

Also, this does not really look like a situation where time of day will dictate the precip type (i.e. snow in the morning and changing to rain in the afternoon), which sometimes happens at this time of year.  925 mb temps are progged to be -2C to around -5C in some areas, which is good enough to snow in the daytime.  Obviously all else being equal, you will tend to get more efficient snow accumulation when it's dark, but rates with this setup look good enough to accumulate during the day at least on the colder surfaces.  Will take some heavier rates to get it to stick on the roads, which can't be ruled out.

[Baum]

hello darknesss, my old friend.

[buckeye]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Bring it on. 

 

For us 'normal' weather weenies who look to April for the beginning of warmth and severe season, it's never good to see Josh start posting.

[nwohweather]

Man this thread makes me not regret my decision to accept this promotion 

I'll say this, we have not hit 80 much which is rare for this region by this time of year. Overall a chilly April for the Eastern CONUS

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Man this thread makes me not regret my decision to accept this promotion 

I'll say this, we have not hit 80 much which is rare for this region by this time of year. Overall a chilly April for the Eastern CONUS

O rly?

[TimB]

Just now, Hoosier said:

O rly?

I was looking at this yesterday and most climate sites in the Midwest and interior northeast were running 5+ degrees above normal for the month. I don’t think all of those gains will be completely erased at any climate site, so every climate site will finish April above normal.

[Hoosier]

I don't think the leafout was this far along in the recent Aprils that had snow, so it will be an interesting look.  I have a tree out back that looks absolutely gorgeous right now... it only stays in this stage for a few weeks or so.

[Geoboy645]

Oh boy I'm so glad that we are talking about a severe threat on April 20th, it's been a while!

*rereads thread title*

Aww man

Honestly though after the last three years, snow this late doesn't even phase me oddly enough. Then again up here in Green Bay we might be too far north of the snow which is A-ok with me. Crazy to think that we had such a warm first week that we might have snow on the 20th of this month and still end up above normal across most of the midwest. 

[Cary67]

Annual spring rite of passage. More 40-60F temps till 3rd week of May. Around Memorial Day flip a switch to 70s and 80s and never go back. 

[TimB]

And therein lies one of the problems with these late season snowfalls. For non-weather enthusiasts, “but it snowed on April 20th” always trumps “March and April were both 5 or 6 degrees above normal” when it comes to discussing how a period fits into longer term climatology.

[Hoosier]

Just one model but can see the difference between 10:1 and Kuchera.  

 

 

Given the progged temps aloft and mod-heavy precip rates, the GFS does seem perhaps a touch warm at the surface in my opinion.  Would expect a lot more 32-33 degree readings in the heart of the precip band, even during the daytime.  But I could be wrong.

 

[Hoosier]

ECMWF has been running north of the GFS, and that continues on the 12z run.

[Stevo6899]

Two runs in a row euro is dropping 6+ in the thumb points SW. Today's 12z run deepens the low down to 997, which has 6-10 just NW of detroit. Interesting evolution and track for this one. It seems to move slowly until rounding the bend and intensifying/shooting north quickly simultaneously. If it does indeed deepen as much as the euro portrays, id expect it to keep its slow movement, which will drop more snow. While I'd much rather have 60's right now, if its gonna be cold, I'm down for some snow as I lived in Florida this winter and need my winter storm fix. Last winter I was out of town for the only 6+ event so it's been a few years. Looks like it will warm back into the 60's a few days after this potential snow.