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April 15 16 Obs Thread


wxeyeNH
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There has always been a modeled break between the front end stuff and the deepening of the surface low... it’s been warm too lately. You will need to rip 0.10-0.20” per hour over several hours to get this to snow under 1000-1500ft.

The same everywhere, north or south.  It’s antecedent mild, with no CAA... just top-down dynamic cooling. Very rate dependent...the cold isn’t just going to “move in.”

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There has always been a modeled break between the front end stuff and the deepening of the surface low... it’s been warm too. You will need to rip 0.10-0.20” per hour over several hours to get this to snow under 1000-1500ft.

The same everywhere, north or south.  It’s antecedent mild, with no CAA... just top-down dynamic cooling. Very rate dependent...the cold isn’t just going to “move in.”

I agree.....I'm in the conservative camp with NWS, Fisher and Harv.

Not touching the map.

Probably should have 1-3" over some of the C-2" area, but I am not doing a new map for that in mid April.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

They are gonna get destroyed.

Yeah I'm thinking a lot of ORH county above 600-700 feet is going to get annihilated. We'll see about a little bit lower, but the higher terrain is looking pretty favorable right now based on how quickly things are cooling. Even these hi res models like the 3km NAM and RAP were 2-3F warmer at 01z than what I'm seeing right now. Hard to say how well this translates ahead a few hours, but I don't think it's going to hurt...it can only help. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm thinking a lot of ORH county above 600-700 feet is going to get annihilated. We'll see about a little bit lower, but the higher terrain is looking pretty favorable right now based on how quickly things are cooling. Even these hi res models like the 3km NAM and RAP were 2-3F warmer at 01z than what I'm seeing right now. Hard to say how well this translates ahead a few hours, but I don't think it's going to hurt...it can only help. 

There’s going to be some elevation that verifies the weenie maps. Those aren’t wrong at a certain elevation.  The 925mb coldest pocket is interior CNE. 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lots of 33s showing up in Gardner/Ashburnham. They must be at or nearly all snow there now. 

I think were even a little ahead of schedule here I’m getting occasional pingers mixed with cat paws here at 39

I think we’re probably gonna flash snow here on radar as large puzzle chunks just turned blue at once

Keep in mind air center is 200’ foot el. Np mixing at 39

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