April 15 16 Obs Thread

[dendrite]

haha...I am literally the only snowless spot on that map over that large area of cover. Payback for December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not my best work, as I blew the higher terrain south of the pike....should have done the Final Call.

The rest of it was fine, albeit still a bit low in n ORH CO.

Spring Nor' Easter Forecast Verification 

Spring Nor' Easter Forecast Verification

A major premise of the forecast was that the higher elevations to the south of the Mass turnpike would not accumulate more than 2" of snowfall due to the fact that the dry slot would punch into the area shortly after the heavy precipitation changed over to snowfall during the early morning hours of Saturday.

 

Eastern Mass Weather Forecast Snowfall

 

However, there was ample support amongst guidance to suggest that dynamics would be sufficient as to advect colder air aloft down to elevations above 500' or so via the evaporational cooling process. This proved correct, as rain changed to snow across the higher terrain of northern CT shortly after midnight, and accumulated several inches in some locales that were only forecast to receive up to 2" of snow.

 

Observed Snowfall Totals

 

Despite the rest of the forecast working out fairly well, this was a major flaw and detracts a great deal from the quality of the overall forecast.

 

Final Grade: C

[The 4 Seasons]

Final snowfall totals for the late season rain/snow event in CT.